[quote]smh23 wrote:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
The only thing that matters.
Question: if the map holds as is over the course of the next two weeks, who wins? Does turnout change the race on election day in way that polls can’t predict?
I didn’t think Romney’s post-denver gain would have been oddly understated in the swing states, and consequently I predicted a Romney win in that week. Now I’m not sure. With all the big “events” out of the way–conventions and debates–there seem to be fewer and fewer opportunities to substantially change the map. It’s also pretty clear that the polls aren’t in a state of great flux at the moment. And, most vexingly for Romney, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin are still in the blue column–narrowly.[/quote]
You’re spreading democrat propaganda smh. Every now and then you slip from being a reliable poster to wanting badly to sit on Obama’s lap and have him tell you that everything is going to be okay.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/263583-gallup-poll-romney-leads-obama-51-46-among-likely-voters
#1
Now where do the undecideds ALWAYS move to on election day? To the challenger.
#2
#3
In addition to that battle ground states of North Carolina, Virginia and Florida are all but lost for Obama.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/263583-gallup-poll-romney-leads-obama-51-46-among-likely-voters
Once again, anything can happen in a Presidential race with 11 days to go. But to suggest that the Romney momentum has stopped is wrong minded. Those of you who are too young (oops reference to age again, but it does matter) to remember how these things wash out should read some history. Momentum in a Presidential election is not like momentum in say a football game. Politics is a slow moving game. People change their minds slowly and it some even longer to do the same thing. This happens across the country over a period of time. For Romney to close the gap that Obama had and move the ball down the field as well as he has is incredible. Romney went from being down about 9 nationally to being up about 3, as of today, in about three weeks time. That is a move of 12 points in 21 days or so. That is not an easy task. If the momentum keeps up (and we don’t know if it will) he will peak by or around election day.
He’s already locked in several battle ground states that used to be toss ups.
Look at it this way, Romney has 191 electoral votes locked in. These are states like Texas for example where no political advertising is needed. He then only needs another 79 electoral votes.
Romney is ahead in
Florida -29
New Hampshire-4
Virginia-13
North Carolina-15
Colorado-9
Total = 70
His grand total at this point is 261
That means he needs to pick up another 9 electoral votes. And he can get them from several places:
Toss Up States
Ohio-18
Iowa-6
Wisconsin-10
Nevada-6
Plenty of ways for Romney to win:
261 plus Iowa and Nevada
261 plus Ohio
261 plus Wisconsin
261 plus Iowa and Wisconsin
You get the idea. And this is assuming Obama keeps Michigan and PA and the race is tightening in both states!
Now if your argument is that the states leaning Romney are not “locked in” I agree. But that means that Obama over the course of the next 11 days has to wash away Romney’s lead in those states and take the lead himself by at least 2pts. In some of these states that means a 5 to 7 point swing in the final 11 days of the election. And those who understand Presidential elections know that it is more difficult to move someone in the final few days compared to say before a the debate season. Sure that could happen, but history tells us that the odds are against it we know how slowly the election momentum moves Obama has to actually reverse that momentum and then get it moving his way. As we look at things right now, if the election were held at this very moment Romney wins.
Keep in mind as I’ve already told you in previous posts there are three things that will help Romney on election day:
-
Undecideds on election day always Break for the challenger.
-
The anti Obama vote is strong, hence they will turn out.
-
The pro Obama support is not nearly where it was in 08 thus poorer turn out.
That means in these critical swing states Obama must be ahead by about 2 points for him to be assured a win in those states.
One more time, anything can happen on election day. And David Axlerod knows this. If Obama convinces enough people that his little blue 20 page pamphlet is really cool he can win this thing. If Obama convinces a majority that Romney is a bullshitter he can win. What else is there? He cannot win it by telling people that Romney is a evil rich guy who kills people and cheats on his taxes, he tried that dirt bag approach and it failed.
How many arrows does he have left in the quiver?
October surprise!
And there will be one.