Zeb–I’m posting about reality, not my wishes. I’m addicted to the news and politics, so I have a keen interest in this race, but I don’t have very strong feelings about this election from a personal standpoint. Obama is aloof and a mild disappointment, Romney is a spineless and convictionless opportunist–that’s my frank appraisal of this contest. In fact, I am not voting for President Obama, though it doesn’t matter anyway because I live in NY.
A small example: you quoted a line in your post–“President Obama and Mitt Romney are now dead even in the battleground state of Iowa.” I don’t know where this came from (couldn’t find it in the first link you posted), but it is very clearly not a reflection of the consensus of polls, which puts Obama up by more than two points.
What about that do you find controversial? It’s clear I’m not cherry-picking–I’m using the best averages I can find. And they lead me to a simple and ineluctable conclusion.
[quote]smh23 wrote:
Zeb–I’m posting about reality, not my wishes. I’m addicted to the news and politics, so I have a keen interest in this race, but I don’t have very strong feelings about this election from a personal standpoint. Obama is aloof and a mild disappointment, Romney is a spineless and convictionless opportunist–that’s my frank appraisal of this contest. In fact, I am not voting for President Obama, though it doesn’t matter anyway because I live in NY.
A small example: you quoted a line in your post–“President Obama and Mitt Romney are now dead even in the battleground state of Iowa.” I don’t know where this came from (couldn’t find it in the first link you posted), but it is very clearly not a reflection of the consensus of polls, which puts Obama up by more than two points.
What about that do you find controversial? It’s clear I’m not cherry-picking–I’m using the best averages I can find. And they lead me to a simple and ineluctable conclusion.[/quote]
RCP includes PPP and IBD polls. Both of these suck for accuracy.
IBD is a conservative-leaning outfit, but just does a piss-poor job, and is randomly biased one way or the other.
PPP is literally a Democrat Party owned polling company and is propaganda.
The engineer in me wants to sort RCP by deleting these two outliers as they swing any given state.
[quote]smh23 wrote:
Zeb–I’m posting about reality, not my wishes. I’m addicted to the news and politics, so I have a keen interest in this race, but I don’t have very strong feelings about this election from a personal standpoint. Obama is aloof and a mild disappointment, Romney is a spineless and convictionless opportunist–that’s my frank appraisal of this contest. In fact, I am not voting for President Obama, though it doesn’t matter anyway because I live in NY.[/quote]
I agree it depends on where you look. But as I said I rely on only two pollsters and for good reason. After this race you too will see what I’m talking about.
You need to pay better attention. I am the one who said that Romney has an uphill fight as he is running against both Obama and the MSLM. His chances of winning are reduced because of that.
I quote ONLY from Gallup the most trusted name in polling since 1936, and Rasumssen who has proven to be accurate over the past several Presidential cycles. So, who is cherry picking? YOU ARE
You will never read me quoting from FOX, CNN or any of the other fake pollsters.
A. They don’t know what they’re doing.
B. Those that do know what they’re doing favor one candidate over another.
I don’t want either I want good information that I can rely on. How about you?
Here you go:
[quote]President Obama and Mitt Romney are now dead even in the battleground state of Iowa.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds Obama and Romney each earning 48% support. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are still undecided. [/quote]
Granted this is from Rasmussen and not some Internet wonder pollster who is balanced on Obama’s lap. But, at least it’s reliable.
You are looking in places where plenty of people are looking. But, you are not looking in the best places for the most accurate information.
As I said I only look at Gallup and Rasmussen because of their great history. In fact, no one has a better history of Picking the winner of Presidential elections than Gallup. So why do you ignore Gallup?
Stay away from the garbage smh. I know it looks good to you, but it’s like junk food trust me.
The biggest laugh I get is when they take “the poll of polls” LOL. pollsters mistakes and personal leanings get repeated and multiplied and that somehow makes it legit.
No really I don’t blame you with the rise of the Internet there is so much garbage out there.
Gallup has Romney back up to a 5 point lead. Rasmussen now has Romney tied with Obama in Wisconsin, with Romney having a 4 point lead with the “sure to vote” question.
[quote]Sloth wrote:
Gallup has Romney back up to a 5 point lead. Rasmussen now has Romney tied with Obama in Wisconsin, with Romney having a 4 point lead with the “sure to vote” question. [/quote]
This speaks directly to my point Sloth. I saw those numbers and they mean a great deal it reflects what’s actually happening at this point in time. That is all a credible poll can do is take an accurate snap shot of the very moment that they’re in.
Am I supposed to give credence to these imposters? If anyone posts numbers from these types of sites I will challenge that information.
If we stick with Gallup and Rasumssen we will see that in the end they will not only be very close to each other but very close to the actual election numbers.
[quote]MaximusB wrote:
Obama calls Romney a bullshitter in Rolling Stone Magazine interview…
"I was reminded of this incident when our interview with the president ended. As we left the Oval Office, executive editor Eric Bates told Obama that he had asked his six-year-old if there was anything she wanted him to say to the president. After a thoughtful pause, she said, “Tell him: You can do it.”
Obama grinned. “That’s the only advice I need,” he said. “I do very well, by the way, in that demographic. Ages six to 12? I’m a killer.”
“Thought about lowering the voting age?” Bates joked.
“You know, kids have good instincts,” Obama offered. “They look at the other guy and say, ‘Well, that’s a bullshitter, I can tell.’”
Meh. That doesn’t really bother me. That sounds like something I would say off the cuff as a joke, not a serious attack on a candidate. I think that’s a pretty good exchange right there actually. Besides, how many people in politics refer to opponents as something similar or much worse when in private–or public for that matter?
[/quote]
It seems that poking fun at a Republican is “cool,” but do it to a Liberal and you’re a race-ass.[/quote]
[quote]Sloth wrote:
Gallup has Romney back up to a 5 point lead. Rasmussen now has Romney tied with Obama in Wisconsin, with Romney having a 4 point lead with the “sure to vote” question. [/quote]
Romney over 50 still and on to 51…
Come on Ohio.
In other news I was polled last night. It was a robo call. I assume internals. Only two questions: brown v warren, obama v romney
Daily Presidential tracking polls Saturday October 27th:
President Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin. Many may recall that Obama had as much as an 8 point lead earlier this month. Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by 14 points!
One more important state, North Carolina, reveals new polling data:
Gallup National Tracking Poll Romney 51% Obama 46%
[quote]Mitt Romney leads President Obama by 5 points nationally, according to the closely watched Gallup daily tracking poll.
Romney takes 51 percent to Obama’s 46 in the poll of likely voters, released Friday. Romney picked up a point and Obama lost a point from the same poll on Thursday, which Romney led 50 to 47.[/quote]
From my reading that’s 12 days Romney has been at 50% or more in the gallup poll.
5 days with Rassmussen.
The turnaround for Romney is what, closing in on a month since he began first picking up steam? They’ve thrown everything but the kitchen sink at him (his taxes, murdered someone’s wife) including the latest, the Allred dud. They’re out of fresh mud.
I don’t think polls are going to change much (except for a possible Romney bandwagon breakout) from here on out. Turnout, turnout, turnout. And the polls haven’t looked good for Obama there either.
[quote]Sloth wrote:
I don’t think polls are going to change much (except for a possible Romney bandwagon breakout) from here on out. Turnout, turnout, turnout. And the polls haven’t looked good for Obama there either.
[/quote]
Agree.
The “Enthusiasm Factor” (that I’ve been calling for months the “Not Obama” effect).
[quote]Sloth wrote:
I don’t think polls are going to change much (except for a possible Romney bandwagon breakout) from here on out. Turnout, turnout, turnout. And the polls haven’t looked good for Obama there either.
[/quote]
Agree.
The “Enthusiasm Factor” (that I’ve been calling for months the “Not Obama” effect).
Again; close race=Win Romney.
Mufasa[/quote]
You’ve been very consistent with this call Mufasa.
But then again you called McCain over obama too so…
Those who were wondering what the definition of “momentum” is need only look at Ohio. Obama held an 8 point lead just one month ago. And now for the first time ever Romney has taken the lead with a week to go.
[quote]The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obamaâ??s 48%…Among all Ohio voters, Romney now has a 12-point lead over the president in voter trust â?? 53% to 41% - when it comes to the economy. Last week, he had just a seven-point advantage among voters in the state when they were asked which candidate they trusted more to deal with the economy. Just 46% of the stateâ??s voters now approve of the job that Obama is doing.
[/quote]
[quote]ZEB wrote:
Those who were wondering what the definition of “momentum” is need only look at Ohio. Obama held an 8 point lead just one month ago. And now for the first time ever Romney has taken the lead with a week to go.
[quote]The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obamaâ??s 48%…Among all Ohio voters, Romney now has a 12-point lead over the president in voter trust â?? 53% to 41% - when it comes to the economy. Last week, he had just a seven-point advantage among voters in the state when they were asked which candidate they trusted more to deal with the economy. Just 46% of the stateâ??s voters now approve of the job that Obama is doing.
[/quote]
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president[/quote]
I know you don’t like to hear a dissenting voice but you seem to think Rasmussen is more accurate. Rasmussen actually did very poorly in 2010, overstating GOP support by an average of four points, with an average total error margin of 5.8 points. They missed 13 races by more than 10 points. That is not normal. They were actually the worst-performing major polling agency in 2010. That was a year with Repub gains. Analyzing other years where Dem’s gained their performance is worse.
That is fact. Its fine to think Silver is the bootlicking lackey of the communist overlord cleverly obfuscating the savior’s lead. But where the rubber meets the road Rasmussen is demonstrably worse.
Rasmussen has actually been one of the more reliable Presidential pollsters in the country, along with Gallup. That’s why I only follow these two.
Because you want him to be worse, but as I’ve shown you Rasmussen is ON THE MONEY when it comes to Presidential politics. Whereas I would not want to call Silver a “flash in the pan” because that would be giving flashes in the pan a bad name.
(GASP) Silver called the 2008 election within one state. LOL…who didn’t?
You can follow Silver if you like. I’ll stick to pollsters like Rasmussen and especially Gallup who has been around since 1936 calling Presidential races correctly.
The amount of ire that meets even a mention of Silver’s name is pretty indicative of the toxic partisan hackery around here (and the country). I’d bet my life that no one around here had a problem with him when he was predicting a GOP rout in 2010. The guy’s a mathematician who runs one of the most popular forecast models, and this thread is called “the latest polling information reveals…” It shouldn’t shock anyone that his name comes up.
I don’t see what few moderates or liberals we have around here getting their panties all in a bunch over predictions of a Romney win.
Hmm? So the margin of error numbers I gave you for Rasmussen in 2010 mean nothing to you?
The venom the right has for Silver is almost funny since he really doesn’t do anything other than statistical analysis and modeling.
You ghostwrite this one Zeb?
I am particularly fond of the part where you speak of him as being thin and effeminate with a new castrati voice. Though thats a bit of a stretch as a metaphor for its intended audience.
[quote]smh23 wrote:
The amount of ire that meets even a mention of Silver’s name is pretty indicative of the toxic partisan hackery around here (and the country). I’d bet my life that no one around here had a problem with him when he was predicting a GOP rout in 2010. The guy’s a mathematician who runs one of the most popular forecast models, and this thread is called “the latest polling information reveals…” It shouldn’t shock anyone that his name comes up.
I don’t see what few moderates or liberals we have around here getting their panties all in a bunch over predictions of a Romney win.[/quote]
Silver is new to Presidential prognostication.
I showed you a model that has been correct since 1984 predicting a Romney win. You didn’t even acknowledge it.
I’ve pointed out why it was so easy to call the 2008 Presidential election. In fact, not to brag but I called that one on the money. 2008 was easy to call anyone could have done it and most who watch Presidential politics got that one right.
I’ve told you several times I prefer to stick to reliable polling companies. That is why I like Rasmussen and Gallup. Now go prove them wrong in Presidential forcasting and you will have my ear.
All you are doing right now is whining because you want Obama to win and you are afraid that he may not. But hang in there it isn’t over yet it’s a close race right?
