They are mailed postage paid.
Return postage, too.
I’ll be at 6000 posts in no time.
[quote]H factor wrote:
That said I think the President holds on and LMFAO at those who think Romney is carrying 315 EV’s. I’ll take Silver’s model over anyone else’s and be back to laugh for the blame fest from the losing side. [/quote]
Pre-game gloating… Sure sign of integrity.
If POTUS wins, I’ll be disapponted, but “blame fest” isn’t something that I see happening here.
And, as one of Silver’s biggest detractors here, if he ends up more right than wrong, I’ll be the first to admit it.
Just because I think his bias is skewing his model, doesn’t mean I’m not going to give him credit if he is right and I’m wrong.
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
And, as one of Silver’s biggest detractors here, if he ends up more right than wrong, I’ll be the first to admit it.
Just because I think his bias is skewing his model, doesn’t mean I’m not going to give him credit if he is right and I’m wrong.[/quote]
I think that it’s going to be the fact that his model puts too much faith in polls in general rather than his own personal political bias. The (probably unrealistic) 85/15 standing in the last few days is a pretty simple reflection of swing state poll averages. While I agree that his biases bleed into his blog posts, he is not manipulating the equations on a daily basis in order to discount particular polls in the forecast. Instead, the polls that the forecast accepts are operating under what I believe to be an unrealistic set of assumptions regarding actual turnout tomorrow.
That said, I lost any respect for him when he publicly bet on an Obama victory. That’s not the conduct of the kind of old-school commentators I admire.
[quote]smh23 wrote:
That said, I lost any respect for him when he publicly bet on an Obama victory. That’s not the conduct of the kind of old-school commentators I admire.[/quote]
I really can’t imagine you are alone here. That was not a good move on his part, not at all. He is young still, so he had time to work on his personal professional mix.
Chuck Todd from NBC was on the radio this morning and poo-pooed Silver indirectly. Basically said “garbage in-garbage out”. And then went on to say Obama will win, but Silver is nuts with the 85/15 figure…
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]H factor wrote:
That said I think the President holds on and LMFAO at those who think Romney is carrying 315 EV’s. I’ll take Silver’s model over anyone else’s and be back to laugh for the blame fest from the losing side. [/quote]
Pre-game gloating… Sure sign of integrity.
If POTUS wins, I’ll be disapponted, but “blame fest” isn’t something that I see happening here.[/quote]
You must have missed my post, I’m not gloating for either of these. They both represent the same corporate overlords and the worst of big government. Mitt Romney was a big government moderate before he “turned into” a conservative for this election. He wants to jack up the defense department as if we don’t spend enough there. He won’t end the Patriot Act or overturn Obamacare. Obama we already know worships at the altar of big government. The only gloating I would do is if we didn’t elect one of these two blowhards.
I just don’t see how any pundit or otherwise sees Romney carrying that many EV’s. And don’t get it wrong the losing side always has someone to blame. Democrats might blame the first debate or voter suppression. Republicans will fall back on wasn’t conservative enough or something of that ilk. I was mainly laying out that while I can see a Romney victory I can’t see a Romney stomp like 315 and am not sure where pundits are getting this at.
[quote]Cortes wrote:
[quote]ZEB wrote:
First off thanks for the kudo’s. I’ve been following this stuff for long time and sometimes I get it right.
Secondly, I will make a call on this election…just not right now.[/quote]
Cool, I look forward to hearing it. And I hope it’s not a four-more-years type call![/quote]
I’m posting it on my other thread “The Winner Of The Presdential Race Is…”
[quote]Cortes wrote:
[quote]H factor wrote:
I’m not rooting for Obama or Romney…my guy Gary Johnson has no chance of winning.
That said I think the President holds on and LMFAO at those who think Romney is carrying 315 EV’s. I’ll take Silver’s model over anyone else’s and be back to laugh for the blame fest from the losing side. [/quote]
Well we only have another 2 days, don’t we. We certainly shall see. I do intend to post a formal concession if I’m proven totally wrong.
I’m sure you’ll do the same. [/quote]
If you like I can come in and say I got it wrong (Obama winning). That wouldn’t bother me in the least bit. Make no mistake about it the country loses with either of these guys.
All that said some people are going to have to be very wrong. If you read polls or articles we have three scenarios:
A. Romney crushes.
B. Obama crushes.
C. Tight race that could go either way.
Obviously all three of these can’t be possible at the same time so some major crow is going to need to be ate.
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]smh23 wrote:
That said, I lost any respect for him when he publicly bet on an Obama victory. That’s not the conduct of the kind of old-school commentators I admire.[/quote]
I really can’t imagine you are alone here. That was not a good move on his part, not at all. He is young still, so he had time to work on his personal professional mix.
Chuck Todd from NBC was on the radio this morning and poo-pooed Silver indirectly. Basically said “garbage in-garbage out”. And then went on to say Obama will win, but Silver is nuts with the 85/15 figure…
[/quote]
I suspect that his conduct will be forgiven if his broad prediction (an Obama win) comes to fruition, but if Romney wins this thing I can’t see Silver having much of a career in the future.
Tom Brady’s arrogance can be overlooked, but when the Jets swing their balls around like champions in August and then go 3-5 through September-October, people notice.
(that’s coming from a Jet fan)
[quote]H factor wrote:
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]H factor wrote:
That said I think the President holds on and LMFAO at those who think Romney is carrying 315 EV’s. I’ll take Silver’s model over anyone else’s and be back to laugh for the blame fest from the losing side. [/quote]
Pre-game gloating… Sure sign of integrity.
If POTUS wins, I’ll be disapponted, but “blame fest” isn’t something that I see happening here.[/quote]
You must have missed my post, I’m not gloating for either of these. They both represent the same corporate overlords and the worst of big government. Mitt Romney was a big government moderate before he “turned into” a conservative for this election. He wants to jack up the defense department as if we don’t spend enough there. He won’t end the Patriot Act or overturn Obamacare. Obama we already know worships at the altar of big government. The only gloating I would do is if we didn’t elect one of these two blowhards.
I just don’t see how any pundit or otherwise sees Romney carrying that many EV’s. And don’t get it wrong the losing side always has someone to blame. Democrats might blame the first debate or voter suppression. Republicans will fall back on wasn’t conservative enough or something of that ilk. I was mainly laying out that while I can see a Romney victory I can’t see a Romney stomp like 315 and am not sure where pundits are getting this at.
[/quote]
Fair enough, I missunderstood your post.
[quote]smh23 wrote:
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]smh23 wrote:
That said, I lost any respect for him when he publicly bet on an Obama victory. That’s not the conduct of the kind of old-school commentators I admire.[/quote]
I really can’t imagine you are alone here. That was not a good move on his part, not at all. He is young still, so he had time to work on his personal professional mix.
Chuck Todd from NBC was on the radio this morning and poo-pooed Silver indirectly. Basically said “garbage in-garbage out”. And then went on to say Obama will win, but Silver is nuts with the 85/15 figure…
[/quote]
I suspect that his conduct will be forgiven if his broad prediction (an Obama win) comes to fruition, but if Romney wins this thing I can’t see Silver having much of a career in the future.
Tom Brady’s arrogance can be overlooked, but when the Jets swing their balls around like champions in August and then go 3-5 through September-October, people notice.
(that’s coming from a Jet fan)[/quote]
I’m a Pats fan, lol! Anyway… A friend met Tom in the ER with his son. Tom’s wife was great, but Brady was a DBag, which makes perfect sense. I would be an arrogant DBag in his shoes too. Crap I’m almost there as it is and am only like 80% as handsome and have less rings.
Silver will be fine as long as NYT doesn’t dump him. I would suspect a romney win will only push him to tweek his model and be a little less brass.
The biggest issue is he doesn’t capture emotion, and turn out is impossible to predict beyond basics, so to try and turn something as emotional as politics into a math formula is always going to be tough.
People had a problem with the Silver bet, but not with the Romney 10,000 bet? 
I’ll be honest I might be a little skewed towards Nate because he posted on a poker forum I used to post on a lot back in the day before he “got famous.” It was definitely arrogant, but he is confident in his model. That said as a former poker player even in an 80-20 favorability scenario the 20 comes in sometimes. Obama is by no means a lock even in Nate’s model.
Keep in mind he’s trying to show probability, not a prediction.
[quote]H factor wrote:
but not with the Romney 10,000 bet?
[/quote]
Have not heard of this, and I’ve tried to read as much as possible…
Details?
Good lord what have I missed?
Also, looks like Gallop has closed to R+1… Damn it. O is gonna win… shudder
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]H factor wrote:
but not with the Romney 10,000 bet?
[/quote]
Have not heard of this, and I’ve tried to read as much as possible…
Details?
Good lord what have I missed?
Also, looks like Gallop has closed to R+1… Damn it. O is gonna win… shudder[/quote]
He challenged Gov. Perry to a 10,000 bet during a primary debate. Not a big deal to this guy, but thought it was funny that Nate’s bet bothered people if that one didn’t
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57341260-503544/mitt-romney-hounded-for-$10k-bet/
If you want to youtube the clip it’s sorta funny. Romney quickly throws out the 10,000 dollar number, but of course that’s just loose change for him.
Oh THAT bet 
it’s coming back to me…
Anyway
If this is anywhere even remotely close to accurate…
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]smh23 wrote:
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]smh23 wrote:
That said, I lost any respect for him when he publicly bet on an Obama victory. That’s not the conduct of the kind of old-school commentators I admire.[/quote]
I really can’t imagine you are alone here. That was not a good move on his part, not at all. He is young still, so he had time to work on his personal professional mix.
Chuck Todd from NBC was on the radio this morning and poo-pooed Silver indirectly. Basically said “garbage in-garbage out”. And then went on to say Obama will win, but Silver is nuts with the 85/15 figure…
[/quote]
I suspect that his conduct will be forgiven if his broad prediction (an Obama win) comes to fruition, but if Romney wins this thing I can’t see Silver having much of a career in the future.
Tom Brady’s arrogance can be overlooked, but when the Jets swing their balls around like champions in August and then go 3-5 through September-October, people notice.
(that’s coming from a Jet fan)[/quote]
I’m a Pats fan, lol! Anyway… A friend met Tom in the ER with his son. Tom’s wife was great, but Brady was a DBag, which makes perfect sense. I would be an arrogant DBag in his shoes too. Crap I’m almost there as it is and am only like 80% as handsome and have less rings.
[/quote]
A Pats fan!? I knew there must be a deeper reason why I hate you so much.
Just kidding, of course. 80% as handsome as Tom Brady? Did you hire Nate Silver to come up with that number? BOOM!
Silver has me at 96% handsome
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Oh THAT bet it’s coming back to me…
Anyway
If this is anywhere even remotely close to accurate… [/quote]
Like I said someone has to be wrong. We have three very different scenarios and they can’t all be right. I think Obama’s Electoral advantage holds, but who knows. And yes you’re correct if that article is right Romney wafflecrushes this one.