Latest Polling Information Reveals....

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
361

[quote]smh23 wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

In fact, I’ve heard Romney mention America and love of country more times over the past 6 months than Obama has in four years.
[/quote]

This is the kind of thing that’s said by a Republican in a liberal caricature.[/quote]

Yet, Obama has lived up to that caricature and beyond!

“You didn’t build that…”

“Clinging to your guns and bibles”

“Vote out of vengence” (hey that’s a new one one can only imagine where it comes from)

Let’s face it this guy is like no other democrat who has ever held the highest office in the land.

Carter was a deeply religious man with ego in check

Clinton compromised and reached his hand out to a republican congress and was rewarded with a second term.

Even while LBJ was a total failure republicans in his congress spoke highly of him.

Obama is different and I think there are many reasons for this.

I don’t want to sidetrack this thread with only one more day to go so let’s start a new thread if you want to discuss this further.

Thanks,

Zeb

362

[quote]Cortes wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Cortes wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Aragorn wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Tiribulus wrote:
Yeah he got a little prickly there. I guess I deserved that irrelevant retort. Inaccurate as usual though it was. I know you agree with me here though ZEB. Bush AND his entire presidency continue to be lied about in truly mind boggling fashion. I have had no problem criticizing him either, but the smear campaign on ol GW is sumthin to behold indeed. [/quote]

I want you to call this election right now Tirib. And I want you to call the exact percentage that each candidate will get.

Are you up for it?[/quote]

I don’t even think you’ve bothered to call that specifically. Why ask him then? What do you think percentage wise?[/quote]

I know who is going to win but if I tell you guys then that will take all the fun out of it for you. Sort of like peeking at your gift before Christimas. Now you woldn’t want me to do that would you?

Would you?

[/quote]

Zeb, are you serious?

I want to know what you think is going to happen.

You mentioned the hurricane ruined it for Romney. Do you still believe that?

I will state again that I think, as I have, that Romney will post a decisive win. Over 300 electoral votes, possibly more than 320. I think OH and PA, and certainly FL will go to Romney. [/quote]

For Romney to get even 315 electoral votes he needs to win the following states in addition to what he has “in the bag”

Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Basically what you’re saying is that you feel he is going to run the board on Obama. And also steal PA which is a blue state in Presidential elections.

Is that what you’re saying he’s going to do?[/quote]

This is my first time “calling” any kind of Presidential race in such a detailed manner. I don’t know that he’ll do that well, but I believe it will NOT be a squeaker.

I want you to tell me what you believe. It is easy to say you “know” what the outcome is going to be (unless you were being facetious), and then say, “well, yes, I knew that is what was going to happen all along,” come Wednesday morning. Another thing altogether to put your money where your mouth is, risk your pride, and say what you actually believe before it happens.

I have learned a lot from you this election cycle. Probably more from you than any other single poster. I’ve followed your every post on this board with great interest, particularly as I began to see that everything you predicted was coming to pass. So, yeah, I’d certainly like to hear what you think is going to happen. Not sure what it is keeping you from going ahead and saying. It’s NOT like us getting to peek at our Christmas presents, though, until you actually make your call BEFORE the election, and then turn out to be right. Until that moment, it’s just…well, a lot of talk.
[/quote]

First off thanks for the kudo’s. I’ve been following this stuff for long time and sometimes I get it right.

Secondly, I will make a call on this election…just not right now.

363

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]smh23 wrote:

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]smh23 wrote:

Again, it was said here that "I HATE Obama because of “you didn’t build that.”

[/quote]

Now, you are the one taking my words willfully and blindly out of context.

Suppose what’s good for the goose as they say…[/quote]

“I was voting for a puppy rather than Obama before “you didn’t build that” based on record. After “you didn’t build that” I hate him, and will vote for a puppy rather than him based on his record.”

That was the entire post, verbatim.

I took NOTHING out of context.

[/quote]

You openly ignored the other two posts that related to this one. You know, where I explain how and why “you didn’t build that” pushed me over the edge.

But it’s okay, feel free to ignore the rest of the speech, and laugh, oops I mean my posts and reasoning.[/quote]

He doesn’t want to out right laugh at you. He just wants to “Chuckle and move on”

364

[quote]countingbeans wrote:
And for the record, I broke my posts up the way I did on purpose. To prove the very point that in an attempt to champion the “you’re taking it out of context, look at the whole speech” people will do just what they are complaining others are doing to pass judgement of their own.[/quote]

The “context” didn’t change a thing. You “hate” Obama because of “you didn’t build that.” That’s it. You backed it up with an emotional anecdote–I tend not to put a lot of stock in these things (they are a dime a dozen, after all, and many of them are a hell of a lot more tragic than that).

365

[quote]smh23 wrote:

Go after policies all you’d like, but the “my feelings are so hurt” line is old and tired. Mitt Romney has said little things here and there that piss me off too–doesn’t mean I hate him. And the comments are taken willfully and blindly out of context, as I’ve shown many times.

Again, it was said here that "I HATE Obama because of “you didn’t build that.”

That, it’s pretty obvious, is ridiculous.[/quote]

I know you were referring to CB here, but I don’t hate Obama for the words he has chosen - but I do think he must accountable for them.

By contrast, it’s almost creepy how Obama supporters can contextualize everything the man says to the point that he’s never said anything impolitic, rude or revealing in his life.

Look, we get it - it’s electoral poison to simply admit that Obama is a left-liberal president who wants to govern as a left-liberal. America is a center-right country, for the most part, and candidates who run as left-liberal “progressives” don’t get elected (and they don’t stay elected). And we get that any time that Obama has acted in such a way to demonstrate that he is, in fact, very much a left-liberal politician, there have been Herculean efforts to dissemble his comments to keep up the narrative that he’s really some kind of Clintonian centrist.

We get it, but look - it’s over. Obama isn’t an evil Kenyan-born communist, but he is very much a left-liberal “progressives” who has a certain world-view steeped in academic left-leaning philosophies that America would be a better place if we’d simply adopt a more socially democratic approach to nearly every major issue.

In unscripted moments, Obama has made that clear. And that is fine. But let the man be judged as who he is. That’s only fair.

So, enough with the “what he really said and meant was [garden variety position of centrism] when he said [fairly obvious left-liberal sentiment]”.

366

[quote]smh23 wrote:
Go after policies all you’d like, but the “my feelings are so hurt” line is old and tired. Mitt Romney has said little things here and there that piss me off too–doesn’t mean I hate him. And the comments are taken willfully and blindly out of context, as I’ve shown many times.

Again, it was said here that "I HATE Obama because of “you didn’t build that.”

That, it’s pretty obvious, is ridiculous.[/quote]

See my long list to Mufasa as to why I think so many hate Obama.

367

[quote]smh23 wrote:

[quote]countingbeans wrote:
And for the record, I broke my posts up the way I did on purpose. To prove the very point that in an attempt to champion the “you’re taking it out of context, look at the whole speech” people will do just what they are complaining others are doing to pass judgement of their own.[/quote]

The “context” didn’t change a thing. You “hate” Obama because of “you didn’t build that.” That’s it. You backed it up with an emotional anecdote–I tend not to put a lot of stock in these things (they are a dime a dozen, after all, and many of them are a hell of a lot more tragic than that).[/quote]

I fully believe you see what is happening here. You’re smart enough to.

EDIT: TB nailed it

368

Strange poll here:

Top Line is O-48 R-47

But…

Page 8 - the likely voters in this sample broke 49-39 O over McCain…
Page 9 - Dem +5 if you take 41% as Independant, and Dem +2 if you take 14% independant

And here is where I’m calling strange, the next question is liberal v conservative:

24% liberal, 37% conservative and 35% moderate.

The last bit seems at odds with there D/R/I split no?

369

[quote]ZEB wrote:<<< Obama wasted two years following a left wing political agenda INSTEAD of trying to fix the economy. >>>[/quote]Exactly like I said he was gonna do LOL!!! [quote]ZEB wrote:<<< Basically, over four years we got to know who this stranger was that was elected President unvetted by the corrupt main stream liberal media. >>>[/quote]I knew who he was by the end of the first day I ever heard his name. Campaigns are an unnecessary formality designed to sway the ignorant unprincipled undecided weaklings among us.

Truth be told? My mind changes on who I think is gonna win this election every few hours. If this country stays it’s course of whoredom and debauchery, 50 years from now it won’t have made any difference anyway.

370

I know this is about polling information, so I’ll make this my last post on the “you didn’t build that” matter:

Look, when half the country was stamping around pretending to be absolutely outraged by the clandestinely-recorded video in which Romney talked about the “47 percent,” I said the EXACT same thing as now: impolitic, very poorly worded, but not damning and not indicative of some sort of deep-seated malevolence given the immediate context of the remarks.

You can argue that Obama is anti-business, that his policies have been devastating, that he has galvanized a hostility toward capitalism at 1600 Penn Ave, etc. (though a cursory glance at the names and credentials of the people with whom he trusted the handling of the bailouts and stimuli suggests that VI Lenin he is not)–that is the hard way.

The easy way is to pick four words out of a couple of paragraphs of extraordinarily commonplace and banal observations and then pretend that they represent the only or at least the truest moment of insight into Obama’s actual character in his entire Presidency.

But anyway, let’s just keep talking about polls and making predictions about the race–we’re down to the point where none of this shit really matters much anymore. I’m obviously not going to convince you all to give up on “you didn’t build that,” and none of you are going to convince me I should suddenly be outraged that the President would handle the tender feelings of the job creators with such cavalier disregard for their storied fragility.

To get back to polling:

I’m convinced that most pollsters have systematically overestimated Obama’s chance of victory by a descent margin.

371

“…I’m convinced that most pollsters have systematically overestimated Obama’s chance of victory by a descent margin…”

This is exactly where I am, smh.

Also; what I’ve read on this thread has only solidified in my mind just how motivated to turn out the “Not Obama” vote is.

This all still translates into a Romney win IMO.

Mufasa

372

I’m not rooting for Obama or Romney…my guy Gary Johnson has no chance of winning.

That said I think the President holds on and LMFAO at those who think Romney is carrying 315 EV’s. I’ll take Silver’s model over anyone else’s and be back to laugh for the blame fest from the losing side.

373

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]groo wrote:

[quote]countingbeans wrote:
I was voting for a puppy rather than Obama before “you didn’t build that” based on record. After “you didn’t build that” I hate him, and will vote for a puppy rather than him based on his record. [/quote]
For someone that seemingly gets angry at the left for out of context quoting this is a doozy.
If you read the entire passage of his remarks do you think he is taking individual effort out of the equation or simply stating that while individual effort is important if not key that no man is an island and there are certain things brought to the table by society that contributed to the success of a business. And certainly if you benefit from things in society you have an obligation to it as well.[/quote]

I’ve ben through this 20 times onthis board. And clearly stated in the posts around this one my case.

  1. Obama’s syntax was awful and insulting
  2. His message, put a different way would have been fine
  3. He never admitted to wording it badly, that I’ve seen, so leads me to believe…
  4. So all those businesses that fail, that is your fault too? Or poor choices? You can’t have it both ways
  5. Pride is important, you don’t ever, ever, as a leader diminish your people’s pride on purpose. He worded it in a way that took pride from one group, in order to get another group to turn to the government as a savior when the first group got upset.
  6. That statement was a blantent attempt to “spread the success around”. Statist 101.
    [/quote]

I think the disconnect has a lot to do with whether you “read” or “listened” to what the President said. If you hear the words coming gout of his mouth and see his body language, to me, it’s slap right in the face of small business owners, really any self-made man, everywhere. If you read the words, ya it sounds poorly worded, but not too terribly bad.

Written word isn’t always enough for context.

374

[quote]ZEB wrote:

First off thanks for the kudo’s. I’ve been following this stuff for long time and sometimes I get it right.

Secondly, I will make a call on this election…just not right now.[/quote]

Cool, I look forward to hearing it. And I hope it’s not a four-more-years type call!

375

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
“…I’m convinced that most pollsters have systematically overestimated Obama’s chance of victory by a descent margin…”

This is exactly where I am, smh.

Also; what I’ve read on this thread has only solidified in my mind just how motivated to turn out the “Not Obama” vote is.

This all still translates into a Romney win IMO.

Mufasa [/quote]

We’re on pretty much the same page, Mufasa, though I think it would be a mistake to make too many inferences based on a message board where people are very smart but also very much cut from a similar political and ideological cloth (not that I’m accusing you of that).

The only real question that remains in my mind is whether or not Republican turnout will be enough to reverse Obama’s narrow 2.5-2.9 poll-average lead in Ohio. I think it will, but I don’t see it as a sure thing.

I’m pretty excited for this thing to be over, whatever happens. I doubt I’m the only one on this board who has been checking the news far too often lately and even avoiding the longer and ultimately more interesting reads in favor of the superficial horse-race snippets.

376

[quote]H factor wrote:
I’m not rooting for Obama or Romney…my guy Gary Johnson has no chance of winning.

That said I think the President holds on and LMFAO at those who think Romney is carrying 315 EV’s. I’ll take Silver’s model over anyone else’s and be back to laugh for the blame fest from the losing side. [/quote]

Well we only have another 2 days, don’t we. We certainly shall see. I do intend to post a formal concession if I’m proven totally wrong.

I’m sure you’ll do the same.

377

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
“…I’m convinced that most pollsters have systematically overestimated Obama’s chance of victory by a descent margin…”

This is exactly where I am, smh.

Also; what I’ve read on this thread has only solidified in my mind just how motivated to turn out the “Not Obama” vote is.

This all still translates into a Romney win IMO.

Mufasa [/quote]

I feel the opposite.

378

[quote]Cortes wrote:

[quote]H factor wrote:
I’m not rooting for Obama or Romney…my guy Gary Johnson has no chance of winning.

That said I think the President holds on and LMFAO at those who think Romney is carrying 315 EV’s. I’ll take Silver’s model over anyone else’s and be back to laugh for the blame fest from the losing side. [/quote]

Well we only have another 2 days, don’t we. We certainly shall see. I do intend to post a formal concession if I’m proven totally wrong.

I’m sure you’ll do the same. [/quote]
Curious, can you vote? I guess like from an embassy or something, but are expatriots allowed to vote?

379

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
“…I’m convinced that most pollsters have systematically overestimated Obama’s chance of victory by a descent margin…”

This is exactly where I am, smh.

Also; what I’ve read on this thread has only solidified in my mind just how motivated to turn out the “Not Obama” vote is.

This all still translates into a Romney win IMO.

Mufasa [/quote]

I feel the opposite.[/quote]

Pat–you believe that Obama’s lead is being underestimated rather than overestimated by pollsters?

380

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]Cortes wrote:

[quote]H factor wrote:
I’m not rooting for Obama or Romney…my guy Gary Johnson has no chance of winning.

That said I think the President holds on and LMFAO at those who think Romney is carrying 315 EV’s. I’ll take Silver’s model over anyone else’s and be back to laugh for the blame fest from the losing side. [/quote]

Well we only have another 2 days, don’t we. We certainly shall see. I do intend to post a formal concession if I’m proven totally wrong.

I’m sure you’ll do the same. [/quote]
Curious, can you vote? I guess like from an embassy or something, but are expatriots allowed to vote?[/quote]

Of course. We get absentee ballots.