The Israeli Air Force is now practicing full-scale, 900 mile (the distance to Iran) bombing runs over the Mediterranean. They have also publicly said in no uncertain terms that a “Nuclear Iran is not acceptable”.
There are some Logistical “Problems” that they have:
Facilities are spread all over Iran.
Some are underground and/or in mountains.
Israel has no Long Range Bombers or planes that can carry “Bunker Busters”.
I think that Israel (if it comes down to it), will do “whatever is necessary” to take out those facilities; and that there is no question that they will have “unofficial” U.S. support.
I think Israel will strike when she feels Iran is on the verge of constructing a weapon and/or the Iranian nuclear program reaches some predetermined “critical” point. This will be independent of who is in office and is certainly independent of our “permission”.
Of all the debates we have, Liberal or Conservative, full support of Israel has never been on the table.
One other thing. Long Range Bombers have always been “off the table” because they were felt to be too destabilizing" of an already unstable region, even with Russia and China.
The nukes that are “not” beneath the Negev Dessert are more “insurance” for Israel, and will be used only if needed.
“…This was a dress rehearsal, and the Iranians should read the script before they continue with their program for nuclear weapons. If diplomacy does not yield results, Israel will take military steps to halt Tehran’s production of bomb-grade uranium…”
(Unofficial statement from an Israeli Government Official)
I think Israel will strike when she feels Iran is on the verge of constructing a weapon and/or the Iranian nuclear program reaches some predetermined “critical” point. This will be independent of who is in office and is certainly independent of our “permission” [/quote]
I beg to differ.
Israel will not strike Iran. It’ll get the US to do its dirty work. The geographical proximity would ensure serious backlash on Israel. Not to mention the escalation from Lebanon, Iraq, the Occupied Territories and others. The population may be genuinely concerned about a nuclear-capable Iran, but shaking up the fragile status quo Israel achieved after over half a century of struggle would be pure madness.
Granted, it has the military power to wipe the floor with all of them, but at the end of the day, Israel is rational and between allowing Iran to get back its status of regional power and risk an all out war, the choice is easy.
I think Israel will strike when she feels Iran is on the verge of constructing a weapon and/or the Iranian nuclear program reaches some predetermined “critical” point. This will be independent of who is in office and is certainly independent of our “permission”.
Of all the debates we have, Liberal or Conservative, full support of Israel has never been on the table.
One other thing. Long Range Bombers have always been “off the table” because they were felt to be too destabilizing" of an already unstable region, even with Russia and China.
The nukes that are “not” beneath the Negev Dessert are more “insurance” for Israel, and will be used only if needed.
Mufasa [/quote]
I think if Israel is going to strike they better do before Obama takes office, because Obama may not agree with Israel on what justifies starting a war. I agree with Lixy Israel will start it and America will finish it
The economy-
Even if there is no retaliation or escalation, oil prices will sky rocket for some time while people wait and see what happens. Furthermore the risk to supplies will encourage hoarder by individuals, but particularly by governments concerned about strategic implications. Even with no actual disruptions this will take some time to abate and the stratospheric oil prices may be enough to kick our economy into a serious recession. If there is retaliation and escalation then Hormuz is always in play along with Gulf shipping. Disruption of these could be very bad. This is leaving out less probable but more serious possibilities.
Iraq
A strike by the US and/or Israel would put intense pressure on Malaki’s government to distance itself from the US, something it can’t do. Maintaining power democratically in the next polls would be quite a bit more difficult and we should see a serious upsurge in violence against the government. US troops would also face more violence, certainly from militias and very likely from Iranian irregulars. Escalation could see disruption to supply lines and strain on our logistical capabilities, which would undermine our ability to respond elsewhere in case of problems.
It’s a matter of time anyway.
The population of Iran overwhelmingly supports the pursuit of the bomb and with good reason. They want to be a regional power and they know they can’t be so long as they can be pushed around by other nuclear powers like Israel-- not to mention the US. A strike may delay their development but it will encourage them all the more in the long run. Even if you topple the Ayatollahs and put in a real democracy, they will still pursue the weapon.
There are many other risks of varying degrees as well, particularly so far as escalation is concerned. The common theme though is that they might be able to exact enough of a cost by exploiting the peculiarities of the situation and fighting a little dirty that our the long term result is a decline in our influence in the Gulf, even though we would kick the living shit out of them in the short term. It’s not the most probable outcome but it’s not insignificant either.
If Israel or the US do strike Iran the Israelis will need their airforce to deal with the backlash. So they can’t afford to lose a large part of it over Iran. If the Israelis strike the Iranians they will use Jericho missiles probably armed with nukes. Or they will use cruise missiles fired from Dolphin submarines.
Even though the Iranian nuclear facilities are spread out and it would take the US airforce or army to get them all, there are a few key chokepoints that the whole system relies on or funnels through. The Isrealis could set the Iranians back a good few years and buy time.
What I find intersting about the excercise is that the Greek airforce was involved and forty of the Israeli aircraft were stationed in Crete. It’s the first time they have done something like that.
It’s just a thought, but perhaps the rehearsal for an attack on Iran aspect of this involves giving the Israelis a safe haven for a sizeable portion of their airforce, so they have some reserves. If that is the case did the Israelis and Greeks come together or did one of their friends facilitate it?
I think the Israelis have a window of opportunity with Bush still in office and a successor not chosen. Obama will not support them militarily and it would be best not to dump it on McCain just as he gets in.
One thing that has to be understood is that U.S. support of Israel (at least since 1948 until now), is independent of who is in Office and what party is in control.
There is Israel…then the REST of our foreign policy.
Also, Israel has a history of essentially unilateral actions (the bombing of Iraqi, then most recently Syrian, Nuclear facilities).
I agree that it would be a diplomatic, economic, political and strategic disaster for Israel to attack; but it appears that Iran is playing a VERY dangerous game of “Chicken”…
Israel could have attacked instead of staging an operation simulating some aspects of an attack…
By clearly emulating an attack on Iran they get to see world reaction in terms of media and government statements. They might also tweak Icantrecallhisname and make a strike easier based on yet more hard-line statements.
While guaging World reaction and posturing may have been something Israel considered; according to the Head of Israeli Defense Forces, these exercises were real practice sorties.
i think that the us is supporting israel so that it becomes it’s strucking tool in the middle east region. and i agree with mufasa’s point that supporting israel depends on who’s in the office.
but i have a question everyone is asking if israel is bluffing, what about iran is it bluffing too???
U.S. support of Israel is NOT dependent on who is in office and what party controls Congress. While who is in office my change the tone and nature of public pronouncements, U.S. support of Israel has been consistent and steady since its establishment; and most likely will not change in the foreseeable future.
Ahmadinejad’s middle name should be “posture”, because that’s about all the Power he really has. The Supreme Commander of all Armed Forces in Iran, and the one with the final word of foreign policy, is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
I’m sure that the IDF and Moussad are more concerned about his pronouncements than all the rhetoric of Ahmadinejad combined.
I’m so fucking sick and tired of supporting Israel. Worthless ally that doesn’t benefit the US in any way shape or form but brings us all kinds of hate, problems, and conflicts.
If it was any other nation we would have cut ties ages ago because it’s one sided and self destructive, but it’s Israel so we stay sucking their ass. I don’t know why anyone gives a shit about Israel.
I read an article on the feasibility of Israel being able to launch a strike on Iran’s underground facilities.
It would require about 40 bombers of which a maximum of 5 could be shot down. The most penetrative bunker buster bomb would have to be used multiple times on the same spot to reach the desired depth.
