Interesting article re: Chinese expansion.
They may be the only country with an economic engine strong enough to challenge the US in the future.
Japan 1941…China 2041…not hard to draw the parallel.
China?s Western Expansion Strategy: Part One
January 25, 2005
by Tom Marzullo
For all the information out there lately in the media about China?s activities in the area of the Indian Ocean, it seems there are no chess players publicly looking at the line of assorted observations to see where they point. What follows in this series is an analysis of where this is clearly going and by what means. This covers quite a bit of ground, whether you are interested in the commercial, military or socio-political aspects.
It is safe to say that China is an emerging commercial powerhouse that will shortly be even hungrier for raw materials with which to stoke its industry that is its principal economic engine. China also retains and honors its ancient tradition of strategic planning that dates well before Sun Tzu?s strategy epic, as even its contents did not spring forth whole from a vacuum since such is not the evolution of such thinking. Neither did China?s deep-seated suspicions of being dependent upon the good will of foreign powers for the lifeblood of its economic and therefore national survival and for very good reason considering Chinese history since before the fall of the Imperial throne. In fact, China can truly be said to have taken to heart the need to take the global economic high ground in today?s changing trade structure.
In casting about for a future source of these raw materials it was inevitable that their eyes should fall on Africa and the Middle East as resources are truly a planetary zero sum game. The first issue at hand will be oil and its sources in the Middle East. While China can boast of some mineral resources, these will fall short of the needs of their industrial capacity that is unhampered by the environmental and safety concerns prevalent in the West.
With China?s annually increasing dependence upon oil and their major supply line via a circuitous sea route, easily shut down at various choke points, the options for safeguarding this supply line with means firmly in Chinese hands are narrowed significantly by geography and political considerations.
Therefore the Chinese policy of supplying military and material support to Islamist groups in Asia and the Middle East can be seen as a stop-gap protective measure until such time that an alternative route, well-protected by Chinese military power, can be established. It is principally oil and hard currency that drives the proliferation of Chinese weapons systems in the Middle East, though with a weather eye on keeping the United States firmly preoccupied with the perturbations that originate with militant fundamentalist Islam in order to limit our ability to interfere with the Chinese goal of western economic expansion under a suitably sophisticated military umbrella.
In geographical terms, that choice of viable routes devolves to one across the Indian Ocean to Chinese-controlled ports in the western coast of Southeast Asia with road, rail and pipelines to the Chinese mainland.
To this end Myanmar (Burma) has seen more than a decade of steadily increasing Chinese investment and influence as well as both legal and illegal Chinese immigration especially along their mutual border. If the military Junta that presently rules Myanmar were to be displaced, the unassimilated Chinese are building their percentage of the population every year and so will retain political influence even if a democracy should unexpectedly erupt. But the Military Junta is already keenly aware of Chinese intentions, as sources on the ground in Myanmar have reported that much of their newest weaponry now comes from Russian sources.
A channel dredging program has been steadily funded by China as has construction and expansion of shipyards with dry dock facilities suitable for major vessels. When taken along with the military radar installations on the northern coastal Islands, that have long been an irritation to India, this investment is clearly aimed towards changing the port from a backwater to one of major capacity. When you consider a similar military radar installation to the west in a Pakistani port, the strategic intention becomes more visible.
The Chinese-funded construction of a land route through the difficult terrain of Myanmar to China is a first step towards clearing the way for the speedy construction of a pipeline that would provide an alternative route for oil shipments from the Middle East that would bypass the vulnerable Malacca Straits controlled by Muslim Indonesia. Given the conflicts China already has had with Muslims it is only prudent for them to seek to reduce or eliminate their ability to choke off the flow of vital materials.
Meanwhile the building of a Chinese blue-water Navy continues apace with everything from major surface combatants to nuclear submarines.
It should be noted that China?s strategic nuclear weapons research and development program got a large leg up after providing campaign funding for Clinton administration by the approval of computer/targeting technologies previously denied to them by previous U.S. administrations. Those technologies are completely adaptable to submarine launched nuclear missiles and so it is no surprise that China is in the early stages of producing missile capable submarines that would provide protection to their new commercial route. While these naval programs are about a decade or so away from beginning to bear real fruit, so too are the harbor improvements and other infrastructure.
But while oil supplies may be the near term driver for this ambitious project they are far from being the only materials being eyed. In the next installment of this series I will cover some issues that point to Chinese economic ambitions in continental Africa.
Tom Marzullo
? 2005, Tom Marzullo All rights reserved.
--------------------------------------Tom Marzullo is a columnist/physicist/educator who is a former US Army Special Forces combat soldier and US Navy Submariner with special operations experience in both services. He was the leader of the Internet-based effort by Special Forces veterans that debunked the false CNN/TIME magazine nerve gas story, ‘Tailwind’ and has provided testimony before the US Senate on military and intelligence matters. He resides in Colorado