chrisp23:
Thanks for all the posts. I’ll be damned if I didn’t learn a shitload from them. I particulalrly like the perspective of inflation adjusted prices.
BTW, prices in my neck of the woods just dipped below $3.00 a gallon today ($2.99).
[quote]nanjingldv wrote:
Who ever said what goes up must come down wasn’t referring to gas prices.[/quote]
Did you happen to catch the reference to inflation adjusted prices in comparison to the early 1980’s? I think you should reread chrisp23’s posts. It should do you a world of good.
[quote]
Did anyone hear the president speak a few days ago after the aftermath of hurricane Katrina? He talked about gas prices. He said to help conserve by filling up only for only what you need, don’t fill up all the way.[/quote]
Yes I did, and that wasn’t the only thing he discussed. And in the face of possible fuel shortages in some areas, is that bad advice? I don’t think it is.
[quote]
What a dumb numb nut president we have. Bring back Clinton!Play on player! [/quote]
Yea and I’m sure you’re way off the charts with your IQ. And would you feel better if Clinton was on TV right now with that artificial empathetic look, telling everybody how he “feels our pain”?
It’s funny to me that leftists are now blaming Bush for making cuts to FEMA in regards to the lackluster response to the disaster. However, they defend Clinton for the incredible cuts he made to the millitary and intelligence services pre 9/11.
WTF?
[quote]Soco wrote:
I am curious as to why there hasn’t been more talk about moving to biodiesel or higher ethanol fuel sources. The infastructure is already there, and the cost and technology isn’t outside of our present day oil based economy.
[/quote]
My guess would be economics or technology. Biodeisel at today’s prices becomes more attractive because its competition, diesel, is priced high. But I do see issues with sufficient volume to justify big players to join, and the collection of the precursor, vegetable oil.
On Ethanol, I am not sure what the limits are regarding the percentage of fuel that can be ethanol. But I do know that the amount of ethanol being produced has been increasing, and there has been a large amount of capital investment in this field in the past few years. It takes a bit of time to get facilities up and running, and then more time to make an impact on the vast number of gallons of gasoline we use each year.
[quote]JPBear wrote:
chrisp23 - Thank you for injecting some reason and sanity into what had become a ridiculous thread.[/quote]
My pleasure.
[quote]Soco wrote:
chrisp23
Can you give any evidence that the price of oil is ever going to go down? From what I have read, Saudi Arabia is already pumping at max capacity, and whatever new deposits are available are difficult to get to (Canadian oil sands) or are in unstable regions. In addition to that, India and China’s economy are growing to the point that they are consuming a much larger portion of the world’s oil than they ever did in the past.
I generally agree with what you are saying in that oil prices aren’t astronomical, but I think given the other extenuating factors, it would be well advised to find another source of energy. [/quote]
I remember oil at around $10 a barrel in the late 90’s. People were decrying the fall in oil prices. They were saying we would never see $25 oil again. I see the same thing now. People are saying we will never see cheap oil again.
Now, while I cannot guarantee cheaper oil, my prediction is that people looking to make money in their businesses will produce as much oil right now as they can, increasing supply. While consumers will find other means of doing things with less oil. That is the beauty of fluctuating prices. They will self regulate a market into a consumption pattern that makes sense for that market.
Examples: People purchasing cars right now will pay much more attention to fuel efficiency than before. People drove less this holiday weekend because of the higher prices. Some manufacturers will produce less because of the high cost of fuel. Others may fuel switch to a less costly alternative if they have the option. All of these factors add up to less demand because of the price, and supply and demand will eventually stabilize.
[quote]nanjingldv wrote:
Who ever said what goes up must come down wasn’t referring to gas prices. Did anyone hear the president speak a few days ago after the aftermath of hurricane Katrina? He talked about gas prices. He said to help conserve by filling up only for only what you need, don’t fill up all the way.
What a dumb numb nut president we have. Bring back Clinton!Play on player! [/quote]
“Mr. Madison, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.”-Billy Madison
[quote]bigflamer wrote:
chrisp23:
Thanks for all the posts. I’ll be damned if I didn’t learn a shitload from them. I particulalrly like the perspective of inflation adjusted prices.
BTW, prices in my neck of the woods just dipped below $3.00 a gallon today ($2.99).[/quote]
Thank you. Hopefully prices will keep adjusting downward.
As far as biodiesel and ethanol, I know a guy whose brother works in the ethanol industry. (Unfortunately he is a poli-sci major, and a liberal. We have some interesting discussions.) He said that there are no real decent refineries truly built for the purpose of refining ethanol, and once they front the money to build one the cost involved will drop.
Also he said currently the cost to produce a gallon of ethanol presently is less then the wholesale price of gas. (A $1.80 something.)
There is also talk about using plant waste product (of which there is a lot) for ethanol, in addition to corn. These two things could dramatically reduce the price of ethanol, and increase it?s production dramatically.
I cannot remember if I have mentioned this before, so I apologize if I am repeating myself.
I keep hearing about inflation adjusted prices being the same as the 80s, but in what other commodity have prices risen 200%?
Secondly, there has been some mention in this thread of using ethanol. This is some evil corrosive shit at mixtures above 10%.
If you own a boat check the warranty, mine explicitly states that use of blended fuels voids the warranty.
[quote]Testy1 wrote:
I keep hearing about inflation adjusted prices being the same as the 80s, but in what other commodity have prices risen 200%?
Secondly, there has been some mention in this thread of using ethanol. This is some evil corrosive shit at mixtures above 10%.
If you own a boat check the warranty, mine explicitly states that use of blended fuels voids the warranty.[/quote]
Then don’t use it in your boat.
There are cars designed to be able to use 85% ethanol. The vehicle has to be designed to use the right stuff. Just like you can’t use propane in your boat.
Now as far as the price of gas, it was 6% of the average American’s income that went to gas in the early 80’s. It was 3% before Katrina, and would have to be $5.00 to actually reach the 80’s 6%.
Here is the Motley Fool article on Peak Oil, which is the information I cited for this, (and other things I have written).
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05082206.htm
BTW, today crude oil is down below the prices in effect just prior to Katrina. Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell $1.37 to $66.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Also, the WSJ reported a “decline in oil and gasoline futures gave some hope that an energy shock might be avoided after Hurricane Katrina disrupted a vital cog in the nation’s energy-distribution network.”
chrisp23
I would agree that oil prices would start falling except that we now have the addition of strong demand from india and china, which changes everything. I think cheap oil is done for. There are going to be some hearings this week on peak oil in D.C. along with some possible additions in the farm bill relating to ethanol (soy and corn farmers obviously love it).
As for ethanol, a roomate works as an energy analyst, so I get my fair share of info whether I want it or not. Currently with slight modifications (about $100) any engine can run up to 85% ethanol.
[quote]The Mage wrote:
Testy1 wrote:
I keep hearing about inflation adjusted prices being the same as the 80s, but in what other commodity have prices risen 200%?
Secondly, there has been some mention in this thread of using ethanol. This is some evil corrosive shit at mixtures above 10%.
If you own a boat check the warranty, mine explicitly states that use of blended fuels voids the warranty.
Then don’t use it in your boat.
There are cars designed to be able to use 85% ethanol. The vehicle has to be designed to use the right stuff. Just like you can’t use propane in your boat.
Now as far as the price of gas, it was 6% of the average American’s income that went to gas in the early 80’s. It was 3% before Katrina, and would have to be $5.00 to actually reach the 80’s 6%.
Here is the Motley Fool article on Peak Oil, which is the information I cited for this, (and other things I have written).
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05082206.htm[/quote]
Wow, that was some sage advice not to use propane in my boat.
I work in a automotive fuel laboratory, so yes I have some idea of the truth. However, if someone has convinced you of some special seals, fuel lines etc… for use with ehtanol, have I got a land deal for you.
Here is what gas prices are like in Rochester, NY:
Right now they range from $2.95 to $3.63/gallon of regular.
[quote]Testy1 wrote:
Wow, that was some sage advice not to use propane in my boat.
I work in a automotive fuel laboratory, so yes I have some idea of the truth. However, if someone has convinced you of some special seals, fuel lines etc… for use with ehtanol, have I got a land deal for you.
[/quote]
I only go by the list that the automakers have.
There is a problem that cars are not designed to used ethanol, so they are less efficient, and not perfect. But if they were built specifically to run ethanol, then no problem.
I don’t know about biodiesel’s effects on engines though. But my understanding is that the engines designed to run diesel run exactly the same with biodiesel with no modification.
I also think this is some good information:
[i]"Biodiesel yields 3.2 units of fuel product energy for every
unit of fossil energy consumed in its life cycle. The production of B20 yields 0.98 units of fuel product energy
for every unit of fossil energy consumed.
“By contrast, petroleum diesel’s life cycle yields only 0.83 units of fuel product energy per unit of fossil energy consumed. Such measures confirm the ‘renewable’ nature of biodiesel.”[/i]
(Note: it is a pdf document. It is put out by the US department of energy, and the US department of Agriculture.)
I do hear a lot about people being against ethanol because of the damage done to cars, yet I have used the 10% stuff quite a bit and never really noticed anything. (I do have one car that says to use 5%, so I don’t use any.)
What does your fuel laboratory do specifically?
Ok, after further search I found the following related to biodiesel:
"Fact: The recent switch to low-sulfur diesel fuel has caused most Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to switch to components that are also suitable for use with biodiesel. In general, biodiesel used in pure form can soften and degrade certain types
of elastomers and natural rubber compounds over time. Using high percent blends can impact fuel system components (primarily fuel hoses and fuel pump seals) that contain elastomer compounds incompatible with biodiesel, although the effect is lessened as
the biodiesel blend level is decreased. Experience with B20 has found that no changes to gaskets or hoses are necessary.
[quote]Testy1 wrote:
I keep hearing about inflation adjusted prices being the same as the 80s, but in what other commodity have prices risen 200%?[/quote]
Over what time period? All commodity prices fluctuate, especially during periods of supply constraints.
[quote]Secondly, there has been some mention in this thread of using ethanol. This is some evil corrosive shit at mixtures above 10%.
If you own a boat check the warranty, mine explicitly states that use of blended fuels voids the warranty.[/quote]
Don’t know too much about the ethanol picture. I favor hybrid technology. It leverages our existing infrastructure.
[quote]Soco wrote:
chrisp23
I would agree that oil prices would start falling except that we now have the addition of strong demand from india and china, which changes everything. I think cheap oil is done for. There are going to be some hearings this week on peak oil in D.C. along with some possible additions in the farm bill relating to ethanol (soy and corn farmers obviously love it).
As for ethanol, a roomate works as an energy analyst, so I get my fair share of info whether I want it or not. Currently with slight modifications (about $100) any engine can run up to 85% ethanol. [/quote]
I can’t predict the future, but my opinion is that with prices this high, companies will make large investments into producing more oil over time. After these large capital investments, commodity prices typically fall dramatically until demand catches up with supply, and we get to do the cycle all over again.
Prices are never truly in balance, hence the reason for OPEC trying to keep prices steady. Without prices that encourage more investment in oil fields, we would truly run out of oil. I would rather have steady high prices than wildly fluctuating high and low prices. This is effectively what has been accomplished with some minor blips of high and low oil prices. Pretty good considering this is a multi-trillion dollar industry we are trying to keep stable. That is why all presidents talk to middle eastern leaders. Yes, all presidents.
ok. every one talks about how high gas is. ok i agree it is high. but did u stop to think that when u buy a coke u pay $1.35 for 20oz. or when u buy eye drop u pay 2.50 to 3.00 for them. and that is just for 1/6 of an oz. my god man that is out rages for what u are buying. the coke cost almost 5 to 6 dollars a gallon. milk 2.50 a gallon. still cheaper than gas but still high. just for sumething to drink.
and oh my god the eye drops do the math on that stuff. but nobody complains about that. all that stuff has been the same for years. but now that gas jumped up its unheard of. the next time u go to get gas and buy a coke. think about what u are paying for the coke. and comepare it to the gas. see what is more for a gallon.
[quote]Da_NU_1 wrote:
ok. every one talks about how high gas is. ok i agree it is high. but did u stop to think that when u buy a coke u pay $1.35 for 20oz. or when u buy eye drop u pay 2.50 to 3.00 for them. and that is just for 1/6 of an oz. my god man that is out rages for what u are buying. the coke cost almost 5 to 6 dollars a gallon. milk 2.50 a gallon. still cheaper than gas but still high. just for sumething to drink.
[/quote]
Read some of the other threads about gas prices. This line of thought has already been brought up - and laughed at for being so stupid.
On a different note - gasoline prices fell 14 cents/gallon yesterday - fron 3.09 back down to 2.95. I never ever thought I would catch myself saying gas is BACK DOWN to 2.95.
Anybody wanna buy a 2003 Suburban - cheap?