Lesnar by TKO
Carwin by KO
Lesnar by submission (kimura, side choke, north south choke)
Carwin by TKO
Lesnar by Dec
Lesnar by KO
I’d have to switch the Lesnar by sub and Lesnar by Dec. I don’t think Lesnar has really developed much of a submission game yet, and Carwin is the more experienced submission guy. Other than that, I’d probably agree with your order of probable outcomes.
From what I’ve read on Sherdog, there is talk that Brock is up to a purple belt level in BJJ now. A bunch of people on the forums called bullshit on that one, but as some other people pointed out, it is entirely possible considering he has been training over 3.5 years FULL TIME. Unlike Carwin and many other MMA fighters, Brock’s career in the WWE provided him the kind of luxury that he didn’t need to have a full time job to fund his MMA ambitions. He as also been training with former world champions in BJJ for over 3 years FULL TIME.
As well as he tied up Mir on the ground in their second fight and didn’t give him any room to manuever his own BJJ, I’m thinking he has learned quite a bit.[/quote]
Although I hate Lesnar with a passioon, I culd believe this… I just struggle with the idea a lot
Lesnar by TKO
Carwin by KO
Lesnar by submission (kimura, side choke, north south choke)
Carwin by TKO
Lesnar by Dec
Lesnar by KO
I’d have to switch the Lesnar by sub and Lesnar by Dec. I don’t think Lesnar has really developed much of a submission game yet, and Carwin is the more experienced submission guy. Other than that, I’d probably agree with your order of probable outcomes.
From what I’ve read on Sherdog, there is talk that Brock is up to a purple belt level in BJJ now. A bunch of people on the forums called bullshit on that one, but as some other people pointed out, it is entirely possible considering he has been training over 3.5 years FULL TIME. Unlike Carwin and many other MMA fighters, Brock’s career in the WWE provided him the kind of luxury that he didn’t need to have a full time job to fund his MMA ambitions. He as also been training with former world champions in BJJ for over 3 years FULL TIME.
As well as he tied up Mir on the ground in their second fight and didn’t give him any room to manuever his own BJJ, I’m thinking he has learned quite a bit.[/quote]
That’s definitely possible, but Carwin is for a fact a purple belt in BJJ and has so far several wins via submission, while Lesnar has none.
That control that Lesnar had on Mir is a great controlling position, but he also could have submitted Mir from that position very easily and quickly if he was good enough. Maybe he just wanted to bust Mir’s face up, maybe he just wasn’t comfortable enough with his subs to go for one. We don’t really know for sure.
All I was saying was that I doubt that he’s a better sub artist than Carwin at this point, and therefore I don’t think that him subbing Shane is a higher probability than him winning via decision.
Regarding that, and this is just my opinion, Lesnar held Mir down because Mir (in an incredible act of arrogance and sheer stupidity IMO) tried to turn it into a jiujitsu game. Lesnar was on top of Mir for almost a minute not doing anything but holding him down (as he was clearing the cobwebs after getting rock by Mir’s knee IIRC).
Lesnar was rocked when he was on top of Mir, and he did exactly what he (and any good fighter) would do when rocked - clinch and hold till the cobwebs clear. Here you can tell that Lesnar has been doing his homework training specifically for that eventuality (an inexperienced fighter would have had panicked and get reversed very quickly.)
Mir, on the other hand (and the one I was rooting for), he simply laid there under that motherfucking huge monster of a man. He just was there fishing for a sub from half guard as if he were in NAGA instead of the cage. He made no effort to buckle, to escape, to reverse, nothing. Very bad idea, and Lesnar made him pay for it.
First and foremost, Mir should never had expected the Lesnar he fought then to be the exact same Lesnar he fought against the first time.
And, against a fighter like Lesnar, Mir should have had tried to fight as a counter-puncher as Lidell did in his prime. That tactic has worked well in general against strong wrestles with weaker stand up. But instead, not only did he actively engaged in the clinch, but he actually tried to pull a flying knee a-la Uriah Faber (no HW has any business trying that shit, specially against someone like Lesnar.)
And once in the ground he should have actively tried to get up to his feet instead of just letting Lesnar holding him down in the hope of fishing for a sub. I truly believe that Mir had the skills to win the fight, but the strategy he chose to executed was fucked up beyond redemption. It boils down to Lesnar doing things right and Mir doing things wrong. It’s not just skills or physical attributes that define the outcome of a fight - strategy plays a substantial part as well.