Fantasy Football 2008

[quote]ericbyrnesjr wrote:
and of course, right after i post about how bad the packer line is, rodgers goes 18-22 the next game.

yay preseason.

RJ, i think you may overestimate the level of play in your league…i mean, it doesn’t really matter how experienced you are or not, injuries happen, and i’ve seen (plenty of times) the least experienced player, or the girlfriend of one of your friends in the league, go out and win the championship, even with david carr at qb because “he’s hot”.

stranger things have happened.[/quote]

That’s truth.

[quote]FightinIrish26 wrote:
Running backs first. Always.

Unless you’re getting Brady, then wait on a quarterback until the fifth round or later.

You’re looking for guys like LT, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Joesph Addai, Brian Westbrook. Running backs that don’t platoon, get lots of carries, and don’t get yanked near the goal line in favor of bigger backs.

RB’s always get you the most points unless your scoring is bizarre. Being as they also tend to catch alot of passes and screens, they touch the ball more than anyone else in the game.

I’m keeping Frank Gore from my team last year, so he’s my “First pick”. When it comes back around, I’ll pick up another big back, depending on who’s left. Look online and print out cheat sheets that list the players and what many consider to be their rankings.

Ones like this are helpful: http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/2008/overall.cfm

After I get my two RB’s, I tend to look for a big name receiver, or a solid one at least, because my league plays four receivers.

Chad Johnson, Randy Moss, TO, these guys will get taken early, so I look more for middle of the road guys like Plax, Colston, etc. Great receivers, but not so great they get snapped up immediately.

Remember, a great day for a receiver is 10 catches, 120 yards, maybe a touchdown.

A great day for a RB is 30 carries, 140 yards, 2 or 3 TD’s, then maybe 10 catches for another 50 yards, etc. If you’re getting points for carries, yards, TD, receptions, receiving yards, it all adds up quick. Gore in 2006 was a one man wrecking crew for me. LT is the same way.

If you can get a combo in regards to QB/WR, like (by a miracle) picking up Brady and Moss, or Manning and Wayne, then do it, because when they have terrific games you double your points up. Even one like Tony Homo and whoever his #2 is isn’t bad, or Favre/Coles.

I always thought this is like getting the trifecta though… happens when you’re lucky. I had Favre in Jennings’ first year, and I picked up Jennings in the late rounds when noone was paying attention. That was the year my man tore it up.

QB’s I pick late. Fifth round, sixth round, whatever. Most QB’s will do OK, as they fit into the bell curve somewhere and will give you some 300 yard games, some shootouts with lots of touchdowns, etc. I had Kitna last year, which worked out for me because the Lions threw the ball so fucking much even though he wasn’t great.

Defenses/tight ends are the last, least of your worries. All interchangeable. Even the best TE is not worth a fourth or fifth round pick because they won’t see the ball as much as a RB or WR.

These are just my humble opinions.[/quote]

Good post. This strategy has been the conventional wisdom for years, but it might be a little dated. The reality is that workhorse RBs are now being replaced with RBBC (running back by committee) situations, which adds a ton of depth to the position.

So while you still want to build around a stud RB, there aren’t very many left and there’s also no real need to reach for a 2nd RB who will be splitting carries (ie B Jacobs, DEN RBs) when elite WRs are still available. (ie Braylon, Fitzgerald)

Where you pick your QB will be heavily based on your league’s scoring system. If passing TD’s count the same as rush/rec TD’s it does make sense to draft an elite QB early (Romo, Brees are elite) and know that you’re in good shape for the playoffs.

In other scoring systems, waiting for a QB can be better esp if you can envision a breakout (Cutler?) or bounceback year (Big Ben last year)

Agreed about picking your TE/K/DEF late, but again make sure you completely understand your league’s scoring. (the top DEF like MIN, SD went relatively early in our league, based on their impact on scoring)

[quote]Kuz wrote:
Djwlfpack wrote:
I think Jay Cutler, QB-Denver, is going to have a really big season.

I also think Eli is worth drafting this year, as he’ll be more consistent and has so many weapons to throw to.

I just wanted to say I hate your avatar with all I am worth. :)[/quote]

Well, looks like I’ll be needing to change it now that Osi is out for the year. Huge loss.

I’m no fan of your avatar, either :slight_smile:

I had the #1 pick but traded out of it. I hate having #1

[quote]Djwlfpack wrote:
Kuz wrote:
Djwlfpack wrote:
I think Jay Cutler, QB-Denver, is going to have a really big season.

I also think Eli is worth drafting this year, as he’ll be more consistent and has so many weapons to throw to.

I just wanted to say I hate your avatar with all I am worth. :slight_smile:

Well, looks like I’ll be needing to change it now that Osi is out for the year. Huge loss.

I’m no fan of your avatar, either :)[/quote]

Looks like you might just have to find a pick of Strahan instead.

Here’s My Bust Picks:
Brady-Last year was an aboration. This year back to reality

Wes Welker-See above

Favre- Don’t drink the Kool-Aid, Jets still suck. He’ll be missing Donald Driver and Greg Jennings by week 2 and he always had a good Tight End to bail him out in GB.

Derek Anderson- Last year was a dream season, this year he’s riding pine by week 8. Quinn to the rescue.

Marion Barber- The guy isn’t an every down back and teams will D-up this year on him. Last year he had the pleasure of coming behind Julius Jones all refreshed and inside the Red Zone. Not this year.

Sleepers: Royal-WR from Denver. This is Cutlers year. Marshall out 3 games(maybe 2)

Jonathan Stewart- He’s a man child, DeAngelo Williams will be carrying his jock strap by Week 3.

Patrick Crayton- Not so much a “sleeper” but he’s a great pick. T.O and Witten can’t catch every pass/TD and no more Terry Glenn.

Whichever RB is the backup to Edgerrin James. Sorry Edge, but the Gold Grill ain’t saving you this year. You’re worn down with no fire. Get your butt pad ready.

[quote]esk221 wrote:
You want to take a RB or a QB with your first pick RJ. It really depends on what pick you have, obviously the earlier your pick the easier your decision will be. Do you know what pick you are?[/quote]

I do not believe this to be the case anymore at all. This is no longer true because the league has changed in the last 5-10 years and so many teams are going with running back by commission formats. Stud WRs have more value than ever now relative to RBs. Back 10 years ago everyone just wanted to grab 2 good running backs and then you were set, but the NFL is different now.

also i didn’t particularly like the trade you made mainly because it looks like Arizona has given up on Leinart and also I believe Bowe is undervalued this season.

[quote]mjc381 wrote:
esk221 wrote:
You want to take a RB or a QB with your first pick RJ. It really depends on what pick you have, obviously the earlier your pick the easier your decision will be. Do you know what pick you are?

I do not believe this to be the case anymore at all. This is no longer true because the league has changed in the last 5-10 years and so many teams are going with running back by commission formats. Stud WRs have more value than ever now relative to RBs. Back 10 years ago everyone just wanted to grab 2 good running backs and then you were set, but the NFL is different now.

also i didn’t particularly like the trade you made mainly because it looks like Arizona has given up on Leinart and also I believe Bowe is undervalued this season.

[/quote]

i just noticed chillian covered my point above and I meant committee not commission.

I’m in 2 leagues so far this year. Here are my teams if anyone is interested:

Team 1 was an autopick draft. I set my draft order and the computer picked for me. I’m not very happy about the way the picks were made but it is what it is.

Team 1

QB
B. Roethlisberger
K. Warner - Added this morning, was V. Young

RB
J. Addai
W. McGahee
T. Jones
R. Williams

WR
P. Burress
J. Cotchery
Anthony Gonzalez
D. Stallworth
R. Brown

TE
K. Winslow
H. Miller

K
J. Scobee

D
Dallas

Team 2 was a live draft. I’m much happier making my own picks.

Team 2

QB
T. Brady
K. Warner - Added this morning, was J. Campbell

RB
C. Portis
J. Lewis
R. Bush
E. Graham

WR
Chad Johnson
Calvin Johnson
H. Ward
J. Cotchery
I. Bruce
T. Ginn

TE
V. Davis

K
M. Crosby

D
Green Bay

I’m happy with Team 2. I got the best QB in fantasy, a couple of workhorses in Portis and Lewis and some big time potential at receiver.

Team 1 though not horrible, isn’t really that great either.

Just had our draft yesterday. Here’s what I wound up with:

QB-D. McNabb
RB-M. Barber
RB-M. Turner
WR-R. Wayne
WR-T.J. Houshmandzadeh
TE-J. Shockey
K-N. Kaeding
Def- Giants
Flex-C. Chambers

Bench
QB-M. Schaub
RB-J. Fargas
WR-P. Crayton
RB-S. Slaton
TE-B. Utecht

I had the No. 9 pick out of 12 teams. I’m happy with my team, especially the wideouts. I think Slaton has the chance to be a breakout stud in Houston, especially since Green and Brown both have a history of injuries and Green is on the downside of his career.

I know McFadden will get touches, but Fargas should still see a good number of carries. Crayton might crack my starting lineup; all depends on how much SD throws to Chambers.

Oh, and I went RB-WR-WR-RB in my first four rounds. Got McNabb in Rd. 6, which, to me, is good fantasy value at that stage of a draft.

[quote]chillain wrote:

Good post. This strategy has been the conventional wisdom for years, but it might be a little dated. The reality is that workhorse RBs are now being replaced with RBBC (running back by committee) situations, which adds a ton of depth to the position.

So while you still want to build around a stud RB, there aren’t very many left and there’s also no real need to reach for a 2nd RB who will be splitting carries (ie B Jacobs, DEN RBs) when elite WRs are still available. (ie Braylon, Fitzgerald)
[/quote]

I know what you mean, but in that position it makes getting a big #2 RB that much more important. If you have two heavy producers, than that might be one more than half the people in your league. Especially in my league where there’s fourteen fuckin teams.

I pick wideouts with the third pick generally, or fourth.

Agreed. Point systems matter.

[quote]Djwlfpack wrote:
Just had our draft yesterday. Here’s what I wound up with:

QB-D. McNabb
RB-M. Barber
RB-M. Turner
WR-R. Wayne
WR-T.J. Houshmandzadeh
TE-J. Shockey
K-N. Kaeding
Def- Giants
Flex-C. Chambers

Bench
QB-M. Schaub
RB-J. Fargas
WR-P. Crayton
RB-S. Slaton
TE-B. Utecht

I had the No. 9 pick out of 12 teams. I’m happy with my team, especially the wideouts. I think Slaton has the chance to be a breakout stud in Houston, especially since Green and Brown both have a history of injuries and Green is on the downside of his career.

I know McFadden will get touches, but Fargas should still see a good number of carries. Crayton might crack my starting lineup; all depends on how much SD throws to Chambers.[/quote]

I’ve heard that Green might even be released which will help Slaton’s value even more.

Steve Slaton a breakout player in Houston? Have you not seen that offensive line lately?

If one of you guys would like to put your “expertise” to the test, we have one vacancy left in the T-Nation fantasy football team. Judging by some of this discussion, most of you need to re-examine your draft analysis and strategy.

[quote]cobrakai wrote:
If one of you guys would like to put your “expertise” to the test, we have one vacancy left in the T-Nation fantasy football team. Judging by some of this discussion, most of you need to re-examine your draft analysis and strategy. [/quote]

ya, did someone (im not going to waste the time to go back for it) on the 1st page accually say that picking 12th and having back to back picks sucks??? WTF, no, besides pick 1.01 or 1.02 that is a great position. you can sitk with or start a drafting trend for all to follow and you have a chance pick up 2 great players that other owners might be eyeing, id love to have pick 1.12

[quote]cobrakai wrote:
Steve Slaton a breakout player in Houston? Have you not seen that offensive line lately? [/quote]

Have you ever seen Slaton play? Guy is explosive. Yes, Houston’s line isn’t great, but he has the speed to combat that, plus should develop into a Westbrook-type RB where he catches a lot of balls out of the backfield.

Yes I’ve seen Slaton play, but he’s no Westbrook. More like a poor mans Reggie Bush.

Just had my draft this is what i got:

QB: P.Manning/Cutler/Garrard
RB: Addai/Lewis/Parker/Forte/Fargas
WR: Fitzgerald/Colston/Ginn/S.Moss/Curtis
TE: Witten
D/ST: Bears
K: Hanson

[quote]cobrakai wrote:
If one of you guys would like to put your “expertise” to the test, we have one vacancy left in the T-Nation fantasy football team. Judging by some of this discussion, most of you need to re-examine your draft analysis and strategy. [/quote]

sent you a PM but just wanted to say that I’d be interested if you are looking for one more.

Had my draft two nights ago, very happy with my team. 12 team yahoo league, standard scoring.

QB - Cutler, Campbell
WR - Fitzgerald, Colston, Holmes, V. Jackson, Sydney Rice
RB - A.P., Bush, McFadden, Chris Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Earnest Graham, Ray Rice
TE - O. Daniels
K - who cares
DEF - TB right now but will probably stream throughout the year

Overall I’m extremely happy with my team and I hope that my sleeper pick Chris Johnson lives up to all of the hype. He could be this year’s A.P.

God bless fantasy football.

RJ, any idea what your pick position is?