An educated guess from a pro-Bush poll-watcher:
http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerry200411020950.asp
THE CALL [11/02 09:50 AM]
Okay, before about 4 p.m. Friday afternoon, I was going to predict a narrow Bush win: 271 to 267 in the Electoral College, with a 51-48-1 popular-vote margin.
Then the Osama tape came out.
So revising for an event that I believe puts terrorism front and center in voters’ minds, as of this posting, my prediction is Bush 295, Kerry 243. Popular vote? Bush 52, Kerry 47, Nader 1.
Here’s the short version:
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District: Kerry
New Hampshire: Kerry
New Jersey: Kerry
Pennsylvania: Kerry
West Virginia: Bush
Ohio: Bush
Michigan: Kerry
Wisconsin: Kerry
Iowa: Bush
Minnesota: Bush
Florida: Bush
New Mexico: Kerry
Nevada: Bush
Colorado: Bush
Oregon: Kerry
Washington: Kerry
Hawaii: Bush
The gist of my philosophy goes like this: On Election Night 2000, each side had its share of disappointments. Bush really thought he was going to carry Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico ? and that New Jersey would be a lot closer. Obviously, Team Gore was shocked that they lost Tennessee, Arkansas, and West Virginia. So my assumption is that each campaign is going to have moments on Election Night when they ask, “How did we blow that one?”
Maybe something like the Osama tape sends every swing state breaking for one guy or the other. But for now, I’m thinking that both sides are going to have their “Oh, drat” moments. My assessment, starting in the east and heading west:
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District: Kerry, by a slim margin. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Bush surged here, and would love to watch the networks have to break out the colored markers and make Maine one-quarter red.
New Hampshire: Color this red state blue. I think many are putting the Granite State in Kerry’s pile out of its closeness to Massachusetts, and the number of Massachusetts transplants who have moved there in the past four years. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest to see Bush carry it, and if he does, it strikes me as a key early indicator that both sides can hit the bars ? or bed ? early.
New Jersey: Kerry. Maybe I’m wrong; maybe I’m overreacting to my bad prediction of 2000. Maybe I’m underestimating the 9/11 effect; and maybe the Osama tape enhances a pro-Bush 9/11 effect. I actually think this one will be surprisingly close (Doh! There I go again!), but let’s keep this state blue, with Kerry winning by two or three points. A showing like that wouldn’t be anything for Bush to be ashamed of, considering that he lost the state by 16 points four years ago.
Pennsylvania: Kerry, but I’m startin’ to wonder. The polls are awfully close; Kerry had to have Clinton visit; and both sides are spending a lot of money there. I really thought Kerry was going to have this state wrapped up by now. If Gore won this one by five, then maybe this time it’s Kerry by a point or two. Again, I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest to see Bush pull ahead in this state, and guarantee an early night for all of us. I wonder if Governor Eddie Rendell’s recent decisions to hold up military ballots ? while simultaneously doing everything possible to help felons vote from prison ? will trigger a backlash. Those “hey-buddy-prove-it’s-illegal” machine-style operations might be par for the course in Philadelphia, but that stuff won’t play well in the rest of the state, where honor still means something. Paint this one the lightest shade of blue.
Ohio: Stays Bush, but it currently is close. I’m very interested to see how the Arnie appearance plays with independents, undecideds, and young voters. Why do I suspect that the state’s blue-collar hunting guys will reject any candidate labeled an “economic girlie-man”? If you have been reading Battlegrounders, you know the Bush campaign’s get-out-the-vote team effort here is as good as it gets. The Guardian’s letter-writing effort fizzled and was widely mocked. This is one of those states where I wonder if the ACT and ACORN groups are going to show that when you pay folks off the street eight bucks an hour to get voters registered, you get what you pay for. Late on Election Day, I picture some ACORN manager saying, “Why can’t I find the street address for Dick Tracy and Mary Poppins on the map? Time is running out, people! Why can’t we find these folks and get them to the polls?”
Michigan: Kerry, but surprisingly close. If morale among the Kerry folks drops, I wouldn’t be shocked to see this go into the Bush pile. Same with Pennsylvania, actually. Judging by all the Bush and Cheney visits to this state in the final days, Karl Rove must think they have a serious shot at it. Give it to Kerry by a point or two.
Florida: Bush. Perhaps I’m absolutely crazy, but I think Florida won’t be as close as everyone says. The GOP has been studying how to win this state for the past four years. Remember how the early call for Gore cost Bush votes in the heavily GOP panhandle? The state party estimated it at 40,000 votes; even if that’s doubling the actual number, a 20,537-vote margin is better than a 537-vote margin. And remember how Terry McAuliffe and the Democrats planned on taking out all their anger on Jeb Bush in 2002? Jeb cruised to victory by 13 points. I think Kerry has an uphill climb for a lot of reasons: no Lieberman to appeal to Jewish voters; blacks are less enthusiastic about him than they were for Gore; and he’s not doing as well among non-Cuban Hispanics, either. Kerry cited the Cuban Missile Crisis last week, giving Cubans that one last reminder they needed of why they hate Democrats.
Iowa: Bush. Ironically, this little state that launched the Kerry campaign to the Democratic nomination is one of the hardest to figure out. I put this one into the real toss-up pile for most of the year, and the number of Kerry and Edwards visits, week after week, has been really surprising. I’m trusting Gerry Dales and throwing this one into the Bush column. Think of this as one of those states where “something goes wrong for Kerry.”
Wisconsin: Kerry. Right now, I think it’s leaning Bush, based on Kerry’s defensive visits and spending there. Oh, how “Lambert Field” hurt Kerry with the cheese heads. I know that the RealClearPolitics average has Kerry up by one, but that includes Zogby’s poll, which has Kerry up 5, which strikes me as a little out of whack. But I’m putting this one under the “something goes wrong for Bush” pile.
Minnesota: Bush. Let me put it this way. Of the three upper-Midwest blue states ? Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota ? I think Bush will take at least two of three. Reports on the ground show that this is another state that has been cited by the Bush folks as a grade-A, top-of-the-line get-out-the-vote effort, with a big growth in the exurbs.
Colorado: Bush. I doubt it will be all that close, and the proportional-split-of-electoral-votes referenda won’t pass. If you check RealClearPolitics, Kerry hasn’t led in Colorado all year long.
Nevada: Bush. Only Zogby has ever shown Kerry leading.
New Mexico: Kerry. It’s Bush’s lead ? at 4.0 in the RealClearPolitics average, and at 5 in the Mason-Dixon (the most accurate 2002 pollster) survey ? against Gov. Bill Richardson’s get-out-the-fraud, er, get-out-the-vote effort. I’m going to give this one to Kerry, but this is another that I almost expect to go to Bush.
Oregon: Kerry. Coming home to Kerry, although Survey USA had Kerry by only 3 on Friday. Still, if the East Coast states look good for Bush (under my scenario, they don’t), maybe the late-afternoon Democratic turnout is depressed and this one slips red. [UPDATE: My bad. This state votes entirely by mail.] So no late-afternoon effect.
Washington: Kerry. See Oregon, above.
Hawaii: Bush. I think this already-close state, which is usually ignored by the candidates, will be revved up about mattering this year, and the last-minute visit by Cheney will impress the remaining undecided and wavering voters. I also wonder if the state famous for Pearl Harbor may have a bit of a 9/11 effect like New Jersey. Under my scenario, Bush has won Ohio and Florida by late afternoon out in that time zone, and so Hawaii Democrats are depressed and the state’s Republicans are enthused.
I can hear it now: Jim, you (and Obi-Wan) suggested the Osama tape could trigger a landside! You call 295-243 a landslide? Well, as I spelled out above, I wouldn’t be surprised by a Bush win in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, or Maine’s Second Congressional District. So winning any or a couple of those could mean a bigger Bush victory.
Could I be wrong? Sure.
What you’re hearing from me is probably pretty different from what you’re hearing from other media sources.
I suspect part of this is that the cocooning instincts of the Left and the mainstream media (I know some will quibble with putting them in separate categories) are in full effect. We have seen the Left and the media disregard bad news for Kerry (Swift Boat Vets, Christmas in Cambodia, the “lucky hat,” no bump from Boston convention, the conservative’s winning the Australian election, the Afghan elections’ succeeding and giving Bush a major foreign-policy triumph, Joe Wilson’s being wrong about everything, almost anything Teresa has said lately, the Mary Cheney comment, improving economic numbers, grateful comments from Allawi) ? and trumpet all kinds of good news for Democrats that didn’t check out (Fahrenheit 9/11 would change Americans’ opinions on the war, the missing-explosives-in-Iraq story, the CBS memo from Burkett, the antiwar anger that was going to carry Dean to the nomination, John Edwards’s putting the South in play).
Now they’re putting their faith in one last canard: Kerry’s in a position to win this thing.
We will see if they remain as wrong on Tuesday as they have been all year.