Divorce Rate Stats Are Junk

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
21

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
Note it’s not a perfect corrolation of the measurements, but I think we can safely assume those who are married for 10 years have a much reduced likelihood of getting a divorce (much like life-expectancy statistics can be severely impacted by infant mortality rates).

So, all things being equal, the average person entering a marriage has a 75% chance of making it to the 10th anniversary. That seems to be to be a fairly stark contrast to claims that the average marriage has a greater than 50% chance of ending in divorce…[/quote]

I think you underestimate the divorces after the ten year mark a lot.

Plenty of marriages fail when “the children” are no longer a reason to be together. Since children generally arrive around the time of marriage, presumably somewhat after, it takes more than ten years for the children to be out of the day to day picture.

While I know you are often trying to argue that divorce rates are lower than claimed I don’t think you’ve found the evidence you were hoping for.

However, in the same way you rail about 5 divorces all being counted, I’d wonder how many people really bother to get married that many times. If there are only a few people getting married and divorced multiple times then they won’t have much of a statistical impact.

22

[quote]Fitnessdiva wrote:
I haven’t met too many happy married people.[/quote]

You really need to broaden your horizons. I’m a happily, satisfied, married man. Not because I’m some loser fuck or a good-for-nothing, but because I focused on my relationship. When I met my wife, I knew she was different, that our relationship was different. We clicked in ways that neither of us had experienced with past relations. Of course we have our differences, but shit, that’s human nature. The fact that we WANT to be with each other, no matter what, is a big fat middle finger to those that believe that man is not monogamous.

Marriage is great if you know who you’re marrying. And what I mean is that you have been together for a few years, and lived together at least a year. Hurrying into marriage is a death sentence. You must know who you’re marrying.

23

Rainjack “hurried” into getting married and he seems to be doing great. And people today are waiting longer than ever to get married but are marriages overall better than they used to be?

[quote]BigRagoo wrote:
And what I mean is that you have been together for a few years, and lived together at least a year. Hurrying into marriage is a death sentence. [/quote]

24

http://images.t-nation.com/forum_images/7/e/7eb94-marriagelarge.jpg

[quote]vroom wrote:
I think you underestimate the divorces after the ten year mark a lot.

Plenty of marriages fail when “the children” are no longer a reason to be together. Since children generally arrive around the time of marriage, presumably somewhat after, it takes more than ten years for the children to be out of the day to day picture.[/quote]

Yes.

25

The leading cause of divorce is marriage.

100% of marriages end in either divorce or death.

26

[quote]Natural Nate wrote:
Rainjack “hurried” into getting married and he seems to be doing great. And people today are waiting longer than ever to get married but are marriages overall better than they used to be?

BigRagoo wrote:
And what I mean is that you have been together for a few years, and lived together at least a year. Hurrying into marriage is a death sentence.

[/quote]

Ah, but they both knew that their relationship was different that previous ones. That’s also a key that I mentioned. When both people in a relationship make a deep seated connection that they can’t describe, but just feel, that’s the bud of love.

Often times, people really haven’t gotten that feeling, or one has and the other hasn’t. It’s these people that are much more at risk in having their relation fail. Marrying for any other reason than pure love and affection is a high risk gamble.

27

[quote]Natural Nate wrote:
Rainjack “hurried” into getting married and he seems to be doing great. And people today are waiting longer than ever to get married but are marriages overall better than they used to be?
[/quote]

You know how I know I’m a dork?

When I meet up with people in “real life” that I know from this site, we gossip about other posters.

28

[quote]nephorm wrote:
…[/quote]

I see you have a moustache now. And in a bulking phase?

29

Yeah but if it’s for money, sometimes that high risk gamble can really pay off!

[quote]BigRagoo wrote:
Marrying for any other reason than pure love and affection is a high risk gamble. [/quote]

30

[quote]EmilyQ wrote:
vroom wrote:
I think you underestimate the divorces after the ten year mark a lot.

Plenty of marriages fail when “the children” are no longer a reason to be together. Since children generally arrive around the time of marriage, presumably somewhat after, it takes more than ten years for the children to be out of the day to day picture.

Yes.[/quote]

That can easily be a function of getting married later – the stats on whether you hit a particular anniversary encompass those who die in addition to those who divorce.

31

[quote]kaaleppi wrote:
nephorm wrote:
…

I see you have a moustache now. And in a bulking phase?[/quote]

Not only that – check out the cig and the high-tech equipment in the bat cave…

32

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
EmilyQ wrote:
vroom wrote:
I think you underestimate the divorces after the ten year mark a lot.

Plenty of marriages fail when “the children” are no longer a reason to be together. Since children generally arrive around the time of marriage, presumably somewhat after, it takes more than ten years for the children to be out of the day to day picture.

Yes.

That can easily be a function of getting married later – the stats on whether you hit a particular anniversary encompass those who die in addition to those who divorce. [/quote]

Oh, sure. Many of the people who married in 1980-1984 were probably in their late fifties-early sixties, and died of old age before reaching their fifteenth or twentieth anniversaries.

Good thinking.

33

[quote]Fitnessdiva wrote:
I haven’t met too many happy married people.[/quote]

Said the homewrecker.

34

[quote]malonetd wrote:
The leading cause of divorce is marriage.
[/quote]
Yes. There is a very large correlation for this.

35

Not necessarily. Remember, a marriage reaching a threshold anniversary requires both parties to survive for that amount of time after marriage. So the probability function needs to include the probability of both partners surviving for 25 years after marriage.

Check out the actuarial tables: Actuarial Life Table

So, accidents and other tragic deaths of younger people will enter into these stats - with you assuming they are divorces.

Now, as to older folks also affecting the calculation, consider two items:

  1. people are marrying later, generally;
  2. there are some number of 2nd or 3rd marriages between older folks that are included in the measured marriages for any given year.

The median life expectancy for a 35 year old male is 41.48 years, but the probability of death in the next year is a non-trivial .1732% - and this is the median. An overweight working-class guy who marries for the first time in his forties might very well not see age 65. And if it’s his 2nd or 3rd marriage, the same thing holds.

36

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
Fitnessdiva wrote:
I haven’t met too many happy married people.

Said the homewrecker.[/quote]

What makes you say that? That seems an unfair comment.

37

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
Fitnessdiva wrote:
I haven’t met too many happy married people.

Said the homewrecker.

What makes you say that? That seems an unfair comment.[/quote]

It was a joke. It was a totally unfair comment and the lowest form of douchbaggery ever seen on this site.

How does one go about finding out if their “friends” are happily married? Seems like it could turn into an awkward situation.

38

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:

vroom wrote:
I think you underestimate the divorces after the ten year mark a lot.

Plenty of marriages fail when “the children” are no longer a reason to be together. Since children generally arrive around the time of marriage, presumably somewhat after, it takes more than ten years for the children to be out of the day to day picture.

EmilyQ wrote:
Yes.

BostonBarrister wrote:
That can easily be a function of getting married later – the stats on whether you hit a particular anniversary encompass those who die in addition to those who divorce.

EmilyQ wrote:
Oh, sure. Many of the people who married in 1980-1984 were probably in their late fifties-early sixties, and died of old age before reaching their fifteenth or twentieth anniversaries.

Good thinking.

Not necessarily. Remember, a marriage reaching a threshold anniversary requires both parties to survive for that amount of time after marriage. So the probability function needs to include the probability of both partners surviving for 25 years after marriage.

Check out the actuarial tables:

So, accidents and other tragic deaths of younger people will enter into these stats - with you assuming they are divorces.

Now, as to older folks also affecting the calculation, consider two items:

  1. people are marrying later, generally;
  2. there are some number of 2nd or 3rd marriages between older folks that are included in the measured marriages for any given year.

The median life expectancy for a 35 year old male is 41.48 years, but the probability of death in the next year is a non-trivial .1732% - and this is the median. An overweight working-class guy who marries for the first time in his forties might very well not see age 65. And if it’s his 2nd or 3rd marriage, the same thing holds.
[/quote]

BB, I’m still responding to your initial assertion that the old divorce claims no longer hold true. Let me refresh your memory:

[i]Note it’s not a perfect corrolation of the measurements, but I think we can safely assume those who are married for 10 years have a much reduced likelihood of getting a divorce (much like life-expectancy statistics can be severely impacted by infant mortality rates).

So, all things being equal, the average person entering a marriage has a 75% chance of making it to the 10th anniversary. That seems to be to be a fairly stark contrast to claims that the average marriage has a greater than 50% chance of ending in divorce…[/i]

Indeed, according to the Census Bureau table (reposted here for ease of reading), chances of divorcing have slightly worsened.

I agree that people are remarrying, and hence starting marriage older, but on the other hand, life expectancy has increased since the 70s, and continues to increase. That offsets the remarriage issue to at least some extent.

Speculating about the ten-year improvement, I’d say that we’re watching the first generation of divorce kids manage adulthood. They are more inclined to stay together until their own kids are grown. Too, we now have empirical evidence to suggest that divorce negatively impacts children.

39

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
The median life expectancy for a 35 year old male is 41.48 years, but the probability of death in the next year is a non-trivial .1732% - and this is the median. An overweight working-class guy who marries for the first time in his forties might very well not see age 65. And if it’s his 2nd or 3rd marriage, the same thing holds.
[/quote]

I would be interested to find out if the instances of divorce rises as life expectancy rises.

40

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
Fitnessdiva wrote:
I haven’t met too many happy married people.

Said the homewrecker.

What makes you say that? That seems an unfair comment.

It was a joke. It was a totally unfair comment and the lowest form of douchbaggery ever seen on this site.

How does one go about finding out if their “friends” are happily married? Seems like it could turn into an awkward situation.[/quote]

You are supposed to put a smiley face next to it. :slight_smile: Did you miss the anniversary thread?