Me too. Believe me!
Turns out weâre kinda stupid too.
America is like cocaine. What ever someone is, it becomes X 1000.
Under this model, the researchers conclude, social distancing and school closures would need to be in force some two-thirds of the timeâroughly two months on and one month offâuntil a vaccine is available, which will take at least 18 months (if it works at all). They note that the results are âqualitatively similar for the US.â
Eighteen months!? Surely there must be other solutions. Why not just build more ICUs and treat more people at once, for example?
Well, in the researchersâ model, that didnât solve the problem. Without social distancing of the whole population, they found, even the best mitigation strategyâwhich means isolation or quarantine of the sick, the old, and those who have been exposed, plus school closuresâwould still lead to a surge of critically ill people eight times bigger than the US or UK system can cope with. (Thatâs the lowest, blue curve in the graph below; the flat red line is the current number of ICU beds.) Even if you set factories to churn out beds and ventilators and all the other facilities and supplies, youâd still need far more nurses and doctors to take care of everyone.
I think weâre all at a who knows point. I mean you read stuff like that and then you also read stuff that says itâs overblown (doing what weâre doing). Iâm not in the latter camp FWIW. To me right now weâre doing something very important which is buying time. Weâre doing this at the same time that we know the virus has been running rampant. It has its hooks in us so to speak.
August is a long time away for the school part and most in the us are mid-late anyways. That doesnât solve everything as businesses will likely need to get going long before that. A start and then stop if needed strategy makes perfect sense. If the fear now is that we canât handle what we have coming and that goes away but starts at a later date doing the same thing would make sense to me. My fear would be it would be hard for people to continue to take serious at some points in the US. We just now today at midnight have started a shelter in place order here. I live in a town of about 12,000 (college kids have went home so likely closer to 7 now) people. We just found out a worker at a clothes distribution company has tested positive. Close to 900 people work there (shift work though but with the way this sticks to surface). It is quite possible that when we start back up we are going to have instances where businesses must shut down and employees self quarantine when something like that is found out.
I tend to think that if we can get to a spot where this initial wave recedes we will be much more prepared for anything the virus throw at us in the future. We will never be as unprepared for Covid 19 outbreak as we were. So that gives me some peace of mind. What doesnât give me peace of mind is we already have anti-vaxxer donât science me pray the stuff away people. So if weâre counting on people who are going to refuse that type of thing who knows. But on the whole at least in my brain the worst times from a sense of preparation are past. We just have to deal with that lack of preparation first before anything else in regards to this.
i dont want to take this peace of mind from you, but look at your political leadership. You are not going to be prepared.
In Germany scientists seem to dominate the discurse and I am very thankful for that. Even one of our biggest idiots in politics (Seehofer, bavarian bullshitter) says that lifes are more important than the economy.
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Iâve just spoken to a friend of mine who has Covid 19. Heâs a bonafide Crossfit cultist who eats flavorless whey because heâs afraid of the harmful effects of xanthan gum.
I think these two tidbits speak volumes about the man and his physical fitness. No underlying health conditions.
Anyway, we talked a bit and he wanted to provide me with a morale boost as heâs feeling much better a week after having tested positive and 12 days after having developed symptoms.
Unfortunately, his account of how heâs feeling âmuch betterâ sounds like an octogenarian recovering from a triple bypass.
âI can go to the bathroom all by myselfâ and âI can now sit up straightâ does not inspire blief that itâs only slightly more dangerous than the flu. He said that for three days he was in a daze, unable to raise his head nor answer the phone.
A 200 pound fit individual now looks like heâs been doing meth for a decade.
I shudder to think what the virus does to the elderly or people with compromised immune systems.
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damn it is pretty shit, after, some peoples they will have just a bit some symptome and nothing more also, it depend, u can to be good in the gym, but ur genetic immune sucks and so on
but i dont want try so i hope i will not get anythings, the problem it is that i live with my brothers and they work, one in a market, the other one in industry _ so i will donât have so much possibility to escape this shit iam afraid of that but happens what happens
Even people who show barely any symptoms seem to show changes in CT scans of the lungs. We cant foresee the damage right now.
Despite Trumpâs shortcomings I disagree. We are going to be increasing resources to fight this and we will understand it more each day it goes on. Our leaders could make mistakes again no doubt. It would be hard for me to think that our resources would be lower than now (in a scenario where we are a start stop situation).
I loved Carlin but thatâs a load of horse shit
Itâs tricky. I saw my neighbors who were diagnosed and at about the same place time wise as your buddy and they did say it was like a flu, but in their chests. The thing is, they were out walking their dog at that point, and my neighborhood has some pretty steep challenging hills. Neither of them were in remarkable shape in any way, other than that they are both a little over weight, in their mid/late 20âs.
I donât disagree in any way with what you wrote and believe it is entirely accurate, it just seems that there is a really wide spectrum of intensity, from barely anything/shake it off to --------> respiratory failure/death.
Interesting projection tool, state by state: COVID-19
Herr in WA we will hit peak resource use on 4/19, and have 27 deaths per day. This model assumes the continuation and strong adherence to the current protection measures in each state.
Trump on Hannity, with no pushback, of course, about New York:
âI donât believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You go into major hospitals sometimes, and theyâll have two ventilators. And now all of a sudden theyâre saying, âCan we order 30,000 ventilators?ââ
âWhen you talk about ventilators, thatâs sort of like buying a car. Itâs a highly, very expensive.â
âTrumpâs comments come as the New York Times late on Thursday that the White House was set to announce a contract with General Motors and Ventec Life Systems to produce more than 80,000 ventilators, but had âsecond thoughtsâ.â
Just sayinâ. Trump still has a warm, safe place in Americaâs #1 news network on prime time to say what he wants without a single finger ever being lifted in criticism, even when heâs scoffing at medical supply estimates in his home town, where 100 people died in one day.
He even praised himself on the low mortality rate on a day where 200 Americans died.
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Should be good for a bump in approval ratings.
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It probably was. He even bragged that he had postponed a call with the Chinese President in which he would have discussed a further plan of action, to be on that very interview! Priorities are fun.
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I canât make any sense of it. It is the inverse of what a rational person would expect. I will say that Trump has exceeded my expectations, but is still doing poorly (I expected hoax talk going on much longer than it did).
And some on here say he has no signs of mental illnessâŠ
Happy cake day!
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How does anyone hear this and not realize he just pulled that out of his ass? Even if it were true, he would have no idea. Or are we supposed to believe he randomly goes into hospitals to check ventilator supplies?
To be fair, those who say that have signs of mental illness.