I cannot speak to mainland Europe, but look at Australia, Taiwan, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan. Europe as a whole might not have been able to replicate that, but Ireland could have.
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Maybe you arenāt seeing the dates at the bottom of the graph. There are a few more deaths than in mid summer when cases were lower, but there are also several outbreaks in nursing homes right now. Also that massive two day spike in deaths is because they only officially counted a number of ācasesā and deaths from the spring later on two days for some unexplainable reason, I can link the article on that if you want.
The way I see it, ācasesā has little relevance to the number of deaths, deaths will increase mostly when you have outbreaks in nursing homes. Generally speaking, the sick and elderly donāt get out much and arenāt around a lot of other people so if one such person gets infected they are unlikely to spread it to dozens of other such people, unless of course they are in nursing home or other healthcare facility. But when there is an outbreak in a nursing home, depending on the size of the home you can expect to have at least a few deaths and potentially dozens. Also there isnāt a whole lot that can be done to stop outbreaks in nursing homes, the workers still have to go out in the world around other people even if only to buy food.
See graphs:
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data
Maybe to test the test? Only he can answer, but some workplaces were telling employees who were infected to get tested twice before coming back to work and both had to be negative, itās because of the extremely high rate of false negatives.
Then you see it incorrectly. Again look at other countries and when they have sharp increases in cases they will have increases in deaths typically within 3-5 weeks.
With small amounts of cases (data) this might not be the case or might not be as easy to see. Iām looking at Canada as a whole which gives you more data than looking at one location like Ontario. And your deaths are rising as your cases are spiking. Which means you are like every other country l.
But again if you can find me one country that has had a dramatic rise in cases for a period of time that wasnāt followed by a significant rise in deaths shortly thereafter I would like to see it.
Not saying it hasnāt happened but if it has Iām not aware of it. We are treating Covid better which means the likelihood of death is lower. But that does not make the increase in cases leads to increase in deaths false.
Your article agrees with me.
But Oughton says that low-risk is not no risk and that, as numbers soar even in younger populations, the number of people who will get very sick and die will also start to go up.
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Look how much deaths have increased in relation to cases, thatās what Iām talking about.
The āfirst waveā was different, most nursing homes had outbreaks so a lot of people died. Now there are fewer high risk people who havenāt already been infected so less people are dying.
But I didnāt write it.
Younger doesnāt necessarily mean not at risk, some young people have health problems (diagnosed or not) that put them at risk. Young people die from the flu too, at a higher rate than COVID. On a side note, I think people were too careless with the flu in the past, going out shopping and whatever while coughing their lungs out. At least that will change.
Is the vaccine a false hope?
You should be more clear then. Because what youāve been saying is not what youāre trying to say here. What Iām saying is that as cases rise deaths rise. And since you havenāt provided evidence where this isnāt the case yet Iām assuming you agree? If you see a dramatic spike in cases you will see deaths increase about 3-6 weeks or so down the line.
Cases and deaths have a correlation that has been clear from everything Iāve read in pretty much every country.
Iām not disputing this. We are clearly doing better in treatment. And yet still trying to argue that an increase in cases doesnāt lead to an increase in deaths is wrong.
I assumed you were posting it to further your argument. I merely pointed out it says exactly what Iām saying. And the opposite of what youāve been saying.
Correct. And yet higher cases have lead to higher deaths with every new wave in every country that has plenty of data.
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You were saying how a lot of new infections were a result of people coming from India, today I heard that India currently has next to zero restrictions, everything is open, no masks, nothing. Do you now anything about this?
Assuming this is true, my impression is that the government figured that shutdowns and lockodowns and all that were unsustainable since most people were just barely surviving.
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I donāt know whatās going on there NOW since Iāve havenāt been following the news and I donāt have any first generation immigrant Indian friends.
But Iād assume youāre right in your assessment as I would come to a similar conclusion myself.
P.S
Itās not just a lot of new infections. Itās now like 90 percent of imported cases. Local cases are like 0 or close to that.
How do you come to these wild leaps? Covid tests are bullshit because some dude who has been against what people are doing supposedly decided to take four tests?
How do you read this and think vaccines are a false hope?
You are where again, Thailand?
I trust Indian statistics less than Canada, but according to them there were only a few days where deaths were over 1000, out of a population of 1.36 billion where the virus is out of control and no restrictions are in place.
The guy who was telling me about this said he has worked in nursing homes for a few decades, people die all the time. The difference here was that we had 10 deaths in a few weeks, which is more than usual, but since then there have been much less deaths than usual. Basically, the people who were on the verge of death died fast while the majority survived. I know it sounds fucked up, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense.
Canāt and wonāt say since I write stuff on this forum that can potentially get me into trouble if anyone here found out, Sorry,
So do I. The government is fucking corrupt and even if the stats arenāt bullshit, I doubt theyād be accurate since a lot of the hospitals in the underdeveloped areas where the virus is most rampant donāt have the capability(manpower, time etc) of providing accurate stats.
Well, I stated my POV above a couple of times. Either do a REAL lockdown like New Zealand and enforce it or donāt do it at all.
Perhaps something like Sweden but with a lot more rules in place like mask wearing and social distancing in eating places and pubs. Prevent visitors from old aged homes for the time being and make workers undergo frequent testing.
Testing should be cheap since India has their own cheap manufacturing capabilities like China so thereās no excuse not to do mass testing.
My 2 cents.
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Remember I said they were doing blood tests at the airport while Canada was still doing nothing. But apparently the difference is that Indians have much stronger immune systems, maybe a lot of people got infected but very few died.
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Thatās a good point I didnāt think of.
I think itās highly possible youāre right given the fact that the ones living in the underdeveloped areas would have died young from other diseases if they didnāt have strong immune systems due to the unsanitariness and lack of adequate healthcare.
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This is the kind of thing that pushes death numbers up:
136 other residents and 66 staff members have tested positive for the virus
Itās more of a question of who gets infected rather than the absolute number of ācasesā.
From what I have seen, most areas in big cities are worse than rural areas.
Actually, thatās what Iām talking about. The rural areas are at least less densely populated. The shitty parts of the cities are undereveloped, overcrowded and the residents canāt afford the price of medical care in the cities.
Itās the same with Indonesia, which Iām basing my assumptions on since my domestic worker is from there and tells me about whatās going on.
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Well yes certain people being more vulnerable than others has been known for quite a while now. Still more cases is going to trend towards more deaths. Pretty much the truth everywhere we have data. Obviously 100 cases from a population of 70 year olds is more likely to be fatal than a population of 25 year olds.
Perhaps a better way to understand it for you would be the more cases the more likelihood it hits vulnerable people. Either way dismissing the relationship simply isnāt something you can do statistically.
The problem is that there doesnāt seem to be any way to stop that. All possible precautions are being taken but its still happening. Outside of nursing homes, you could advise high risk people to stay home, have things delivered, and avoid other people, but after a certain point death doesnāt seem so bad anymore.
Stop it fully? Probably not. But some places have had more success than others. I donāt think thatās by random chance. I donāt think our results in the U.S. so far being worse than a lot of other areas is just bad luck.
Iām going to guess the vast majority of people in the world who arenāt suicidal disagree with you.