Bush Re-election?

to Anderson

Before I start I was an economic major at UCLA and got my MBA at UCLA so I know a thing or two about how the economy works. A quick econ lesson in simple terms. Two forms of government introvention monetary policy and fiscal policy. Monetary policy is headed by the federal board Reserves which through different tools control the money supply. Fiscal policy is through the congress and the president. Fiscal policy can raise or lower taxes and decrease or increase government spending.
ok onto bush.
My opinion is that bush has created an extremely unequal balance of the budget, resulting because of his increase in the miltary complex industries, while at the same time lowering taxes. This is the right kind of policy because in purpose it should give consumers more money to spend and give individuals more jobs by the increase in miltary. Thus increasing demand. At least Clinton had a balanced budget and the economy was doing ok. This debt issue has to be faced one of these days. For issues beyond the scope of this post demand hasn’t increased. Not be forgotten that the federal reserve is trying to do the same thing and being ineffective. Bush can not give the american people confidence so they won’t spend. I understand that the issue is much more complex than that last statement but im trying to make it simple. I also beleive in a way for the press not to critize bush’s adminstration for the faltering economy attention has turned towards iraq. Anderson people in this country vote their pocket book. Unless bush can do something to raise the economy he will not get elected.

Boston Barrier

Its hard for me to beleive that bush can’t get something he really wants passed in congress since its of a republician majority.

Xmillertimex
Yah I beleive the hawks in bush adminstration will probably try and do something with korea at somepoint. At least that effort to disarm their nuclear capabilities would noble.

Anderson

I just read some of your posts further down and it seems you understand the economy. It is understood that fiscal policy has problems time lag due to congress, unpopular policy (tax increases)and many others. Although your correct that the economy and the stock market are independent the majority of the time they follow each other. For example fear of more terroist attacks and the war has drove down the stock market, but it just reinforces the national polls that americans are afriad to travel and spend etc… What I tried to say in my post before was I think Bush concer more of his time with issues at home. Aside the point if the crappy economy is bush’s fault it is still BAD. The budget also needs to be fixed. There is not an endless supply of money and the debt just grows bigger and bigger ever day.

to anderson
Scall, you mentioned consumption, investment and employment as factors the president can make to directly affect the economy, yet these factors all stem from the money supply which is controlled by the fed.


Anderson it is not just controlled by the fed here is how fiscal policy effects consumption and employment. If taxes are lowered saving and consumption would be increased. If the governement increases spending more jobs are created. Investment is largely delt with prime rate which the reserve board as control of. Just clearing things up.

Patricia just to clarify I did not agree w/ what doggie said I just mearly stated that “most women chose democatic. Because of the abortion issue the right to choose and they don’t vote for republicans because of that issue alone.”

Matt what the hell are u talking about Clinton balanced the budget and the economy was doing okay? what did he do? While Clinton was in the oval office getting his d@@@ ##$# by Monica the whole Enron thing started to happen and Global Crossing. And a couple of other companies not providing the right accounting practice. I tell you one thing this whole resession is All Clinton’s fault because he did nothing!

Matt –

It’s not so simple as Bush “having a majority” in Congress. There were Democrats who crossed over and voted for the Bush tax cut, and Republicans who crossed over and voted against it.

Although I haven’t verified this, I’d be willing to bet it was northeastern liberal Republicans voting against the dividend cut, and conservative southern Democrats voting for the dividend cut – and both doing so to appeal to their respective constituencies.

Given the Republicans have a nominal 1 person majority in the Senate, that makes it highly unlikely Bush can just “push through” anything – especially when some of those nominal Republicans have more in common in their political outlooks with most Democrats than with most Republicans. I don’t know about you, but I would much rather have Zell Miller, the GA Democrat, representing me in the Senate than Olympia Snowe (to pick a random liberal northeastern Republican).

So, in sum, Bush is trying to get his growth-positive tax cuts passed, but he is not getting enough support in the Congress.

Matt –

I also want to explain a little bit about how Clinton “balanced the budget.” He watched tax revenues increase from a strong economy – mostly pushed by the incredible stock market bubble he oversaw in his second term leading to very high and unexpected increases in capital-gains tax revenue. At the same time, he expanded federal spending in every single area except for defense spending – conversely, he managed to eviscerate military spending to the degree that his cuts to the military were large enough to allow him to claim that he “shrank government” because overall government spending was lower (meaning he cut enough from the military that the cuts were greater than the combined increases in ALL other government programs).

Given that one of the only true responsibilities of a national government is defending its citizens, this was not good. The military of today is not nearly as strong as it was during the first Gulf War. There are fewer troops, older equipment, and more mothballed equipment, more infrequent maintenance to equipment, etc. The military is no longer capable of maintaining two major engagements on separate fronts, which had been considered the bare minimum of necessary strength prior to the Clinton presidency.

That is the legacy Clinton left Bush – a bubbling stock market and a slashed military. Oh yeah, and there were the terrorist problems he ignored in favor of attempting to build his “legacy” as a mideast peace builder by inserting himself into the Palestinian problem without actually wanting to DO anything about it.

Actually, as a parting thought, I will say that Clinton did manage to do one thing very good for the U.S. economy: he pushed for NAFTA approval, and signed it. Of course, that was merely the culmination of years of effort by previous administrations, but at least he didn’t muck it up.

Fitone
lol you do not know what you talking about. Its called the balanced budget aggrement, search for it. Get the facts before you talk about something. Secondly the Enron and Global crossing can’t be a fault of a president its the fault of a corrupt company, so blaming it on a president is crazy. If the blame goes anywhere its on the SEC, which the head of the SEC was fired.

Bostonbarrier

I understand how he balanced the budget. You can’t justify that he only balanced the budget because of the really good economy and stock market. Whatever the circumstances although favorable he still did balance the budget thats more than any other president since 1969 can say.

Concearing the tax cut I was being sarcasitc when saying bush could get what he wants know that republicans are in control. Although im not to familiar with exactly tax cut your talking about I question wheter or not it is going to be effective. Bush’s last tax cut the amount of money I got was not significant. If anything lol I probably spent the money on biotest products.

Yes your right Clinton did decrease the miltary and increased social programs. But to say the miltary is much smaller is questionable. The miltary has the biggest budget it has ever had. You make it seem like the technology we have now is inferior we seem to be doing pretty good in battle (low death rates).

Im enjoying my this dicussion with you and Anderson. I await your response.

Oops, another political thread.


I will most likely vote for Bush. I will always vote for the best candidate who has a chance of winning. Out of the candidates I have seen, Bush sucks the least. Though I give him high points on the war.


The economy. Quickly, I believe that the government mostly gets in the way of the economy. Politicians will take credit for it improving, while blaming the other party for it’s decline. There are so many factors that are involved it is astounding. Some of the things the government does is almost immediate, while some things take years to have an effect on the economy.


All the women are going democrat? Well it is obvious where the estrogen travels. (It’s a joke.)

Yes

Particia: You go girl! Strong women should have strong opinions and not take shit from anyone!

Looking at the new book section I saw a book written by Clinton’s military aid. The guy who carried the nuclear “football”. Flipping thru the book is frightful. Clinton lost the nuke codes and never found them! He does not have great things to say about Clinton.

Most of us who’ve responded to this thread would vote for Bush. I’ve counted something like 26-9, but I may be off a vote or two here or there. Hopefully, this is a reflection of how the country’s going to vote in November 2004.

The only concern is how fickle American voters are. Public opinion changes daily.

It’ll be interesting to see who the Democrats choose to oppose Bush in the election. As far as his own party, he’ll probably run unopposed in the Republican Primary or have a no-name Republican run against him. I can’t see a serious challenger going against him. Anyone disagree and think he’ll be challenged strongly within his own party?

I missed a lot yesterday while I picking my girlfriend up at the airport. I’m tempted to start an Economic Roundtable thread since this thread is severely hijacked. Today she saw I was discussing economics on the internet and said, ?I wonder if I should be worried about you.?

Skall: I’m glad we can agree to disagree; the truth is likely somewhere in the middle

Fitone: Anderson is my last name.

Matt: I realize you mention your degrees to establish credence to your arguments, but that is not needed if your arguments are sound. As you know, many economists disagree with each other and despite the application of math in econ; it is still not an exact science. For the record, I too have a degree in economics, but I don’t think it mattes for our current discussion. Besides, most people are turned off when someone mentions a degree to establish a position of authority.

I realized after I hit submit I didn’t explain how fiscal policy effects Skall’s arguments of consumption, investment, etc. Unfortunately there was not a way I could edit it back in, but I agree, your clarification was correct.

Boston and Matt: In regards to the military, I agree with Boston. Despite the budget, under the Clinton Administration the Army was reduced from 18 divisions to 10. The Air Force combat fighter wings from 24 to 12. The Navy was reduced from 567 ships to 300 including 13 ballistic submarines, and 4 aircraft carriers. I find this disturbing. There is an interesting book out now called “Dereliction of Duty” discussing the legacy of the Clinton years from a military perspective. Interesting read.

Anyway, this isn’t to compare Clinton to Bush, this is to say that Bush has indeed been handed a gutted military, a declining economy and is now trying to do many things (perhaps too many) at once, both to the domestic economy as well as foreign policy.
People talk about the poor state of the economy, but compare this economy to that of the Carter administration with double digit inflation and interest rates. We are enjoying some of the lowest interest rates in years, yet because of the correction of the stock market, people say the economy is horrible. There are many ways it can be worse.

Additionally, I think we can agree that the stock market is going through a correction and it will eventually adjust itself to market value. This was bound to happen as “irrational exuberance” was eventually going to catch up with us. It did. However, because of politics, the president feels he must “do something.” In truth, both parties agree that we must “do something” and both agree that fiscal policy tax cuts are the answer, the difference is how to put these tax cuts in place.

The purpose of my original thread was to try encourage people to learn more about economics. Some of the threads on this topic showed how many people vote without understanding. Regardless of political party, I just want people to think for themselves, to understand what it is they are talking about not just repeat what is heard on the news. Think critically and research.

I too enjoyed this discussion.


Guessing how Gore would have done is senseless. Putting the economy’s sucess and or failure on a presidential resume is hilarious. The stockmarket was raging at a strong although unsustainable rate. Long term, the correction places the prices at a strong consistant growth rate correcting the madness. People were senselessly investing and inflating the price of unprofitable dot bomb companies. Will I vote for Bush? Show me my other options and give me a crystal ball to see what everything is like in about 15 months. Until then, yes for now.

Matt Levin –

Firstly, Anderson handled the facts on my military point – basically, there are far fewer “boots on the ground” now than under H.W. Bush, there is less equipment now than under H.W. Bush, and the equipment that is there is maintained less stringently than it was under H.W. Bush, and this is all due to Clinton. I was not inferring that we were weak, or that we would suffer a lot of casualties going after a tin-pot dictator like Hussein. What I did say was that we do not have the strength to engage in two major actions on two separate fronts simultaneously, which had been thought to be our minimum “safety” strength in post WWII times.

Now, to relate this to the original point of how it helped him balance the budget, I will refer to your post in that we agree the U.S. government spends large sums on the military. Clinton cut a large amount from those expenditures in order to achieve his balance without the pain of cutting social programs, especially the “third rails” of Social Security and Medicare. Add to those cuts the increased revenue from the stock market, which I mentioned above (and which Clinton had nothing to do with save perhaps being in charge of an SEC that was lax in enforcement), and you come out with your balanced budget. In other words, I can say what I said above, because Clinton’s “balanced budget” needs to be qualified by the circumstances surrounding it and how it was achieved. Basically, what he did was weaken our national defense while handing to his successor the problems he had inherited. (We can thank LBJ for starting those, and parcel out the blame as necessary amongst the successors for not having the guts to fix them).

You said: “Although im not to familiar with exactly tax cut your talking about I question wheter or not it is going to be effective.”

To clear up the tax cuts to which I am referring, I am talking about Bush’s proposed elimination of the double taxation of dividends via eliminating the tax on dividends at the investor level (I would have preferred to end them at the corporate level, as that would be more efficient, but so be it). I am also referring to his proposal to fully enact his previously passed reduction in marginal income tax rates, which are scheduled to be phased in over the next 9 years. Finally, I am talking about his proposal to create individual savings accounts that function as less-restricted IRAs, allowing people to save money and do away with a level of taxation (I don’t know if they would function as a traditional IRA or a Roth). From reading some of your above posts, I would think you would be all for those proposals, as they are pro-growth.

You said: “Bush’s last tax cut the amount of money I got was not significant. If anything lol I probably spent the money on biotest products.”

This is because of the phase in. If the rates had been completely reduced as proposed, and as Bush has currently re-proposed, you would have seen far more money. You didn’t see much money because your taxes were barely lowered, irrespective of all the hullabaloo in the press.

Finally, as we all seem to be citing credentials, one of my undergrad degrees from UCSD was a BS in management science, which is a bastardization of econ, finance and logistics. =-)

Now, I want to say that I too am enjoying this – and that it makes me feel at least somewhat better about being at the office on a Sunday (I’m here kind of “on call,” waiting to be handed things to do on a big, time-sensitive project. Ah, the joys of being a junior associate at a big corporate firm.).

Babydoll and Say:

I really like Ralph Nader actually. There is a credible argument to be made that he kept us from having President Gore, and for that I am eternally grateful.

To Anderson: Its great to see someone w/ and insight on economics and politics!!

Patricia,

My post above originally read, “Skimming through this thread it seems every woman voted NO. I wonder why this is?”. My wife was standing over my shoulder (I had been waiting for her to get ready because we were going out for our anniversary) and responded, “Because we aren’t a bunch of dumbasses that think with our dicks.” God bless her. So I quickly typed out what I did and hit submit primarily for her benefit. I apologize for getting you or any other woman on here so worked up. Women are the greatest thing God ever did. And I Do still wonder why 100% or the women on here voted NO. Surely it goes beyond abortion. (My wife is actually more pro-Republican than anyone I’ve ever met, by the way, but she doesn’t post.) Again, sorry to upset you so totally.

doogie

yea i’m gonna vote for some OCS flunkie punk who wants to lower the EPA standards to increase his petroleum industry buddies profits. this dude is such a GLOBAL embarassment and a fu/up as a PR to what americans stand for.