Will there be tons of “Leaks” of every clumsy/unflattering moment for these candidates along the way?
It used to be that Outsiders would dig up skeletons to derail people running for office and make them quit.
Now all manner of people leak stuff about organiztions they are a part of. And try to tear down their own superiors/ organizations. Can we expect staffers for these candidates to come forward with allegations of sexual harassment, videos of akwards jokes not landing, and examples of “racism” and “hypocrisy” on tape?
We don’t have matchups but we do have state data on his approvals though it is fairly small and not always recent. I’m too lazy right now to determine how this type of polling played out in 2012 with Obama, but I may later. All Presidents tend to drop in state polls which makes sense but we may glean some information with the amount. Trump is staying strong in Florida, but struggling in the Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa type areas. It’s one thing to track a little low and still look competitive in say Ohio. A little more alarming perhaps when you’re looking at Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania in the mid 30’s of approval. I’m not sure what if anything that means come election day and it’s still early. It does tell us that Trump is significantly less popular in some states which secured his victory. We’re not talking a point or two.
We also have recent historical data on how approval rates play out in presidential elections. GWB won a pretty close one in 04 hovering around the 51% approval rating mark (before the election). President Trump hasn’t been close to that.
I also dismiss the idea that all polling is bunk simply because 2016 didn’t play out exactly the way some of them predicted. See this article (and I’ve been a 538 homer for a while now on this site. Might be because I used to read a lot of Silver back when he wrote about poker). Even though Trump’s victory was a longshot according to many polls sometimes those long shots come in.
Absolutely. Trump doesn’t have to be popular, just more popular than whoever the Dems run. That said I can hardly see a scenario where they run someone who come election time has the type of approval ratings Clinton had. The right has always hated her and the left was lukewarm at best.
Trump will have the power of the incumbent but he likely will not have the power of running against someone as despised as Clinton.
I thought that was the strangest phenomenon. Like the lying Ted thing. He just started calling him lying Ted, and everybody was like “Well, he has a point. His name is Ted.”, and poof, out of the running.
I’m just waiting to see what he says about Kamala Harris.
Trump: “She’s a purple haired idiot.”.
Kamala Harris: “Policy, civil rights, what ever…”
Everybody: “exactly what a purple haired idiot would say!”.
I wasn’t making a prediction. No one really can at this early point but anyone can speculate with some information and make arguments. That’s the point of the thread.
As a liberal, I like Bernie but I’m not as liberal as he is. Everything he proposes sounds good (sorta like a fairy tale) but most if it will never pass nor could we afford it. Most of the country is in the center. Besides at 77 Bernie would be a one term president so who he picks as a running mate would have to be very capable of being president. But hey, trump is president so the bar is quite low.
