This love-fest is making me get all teary eyed - but kidding aside, our Congress would learn alot from our goings-on here at PWI - be passionate, but there is always common ground if you act in good faith, and politics, while important, isn’t life and death.
I’ve enjoyed discussing and learning from all of you.
That said, here is my prediction:
I’m not going to fine tune a prediction based on recent polling data, even though all of that is very important. I am going with gut. And my gut tells me that, like someone else said, this hasn’t looked like the kind of campaign an incumbent wins.
For me, I look at the tide of moderates and independents, and the tide is that statistically that Obama lost independents a long time ago and that loss has deepened as we have gotten closer to the election. Also, anecdotally, I look at people/institutions who have flipped from Obama in 2008 to Romney in 2012. A lot of moderates have turned on Obama, and when they explain why, it is very compelling, and I think those sentiments resonate with a lot of people who plan on voting.
These voters wanted a post-partisan pragmatist in 2008 and didn’t get it, and they are mad about it, want a redo, and plan on trying to fix it.
Also, the “conservative” base will turn out big, just like they did in 2010. There is just no reason to believe they won’t.
But I think the difference maker are the moderates, and in a column from Peggy Noonan today, I think she’s got it right (read the whole thing, I think it sums up how I feel):
Maybe that’s what the coming Romney moment is about: independents, conservatives, Republicans, even some Democrats, thinking: We can turn it around, we can work together, we can right this thing, and he can help.
I think that is how people feel about Romney - he can help what needs helping, right now.
And I think that is why Romney wins.
