US Presidential Election Predictions

It still remains to be seen how the GOP will adjust once he’s out of office. Some, possibly many, will undoubtedly speak out against many aspects of his presidency. Some, possibly many will continue to defend his style of governing. Trump has undoubtedly caused some division within the party that has only been publicly addressed by Mitt Romney Ben Sasse and a few others, so there’s little room for speculation until after the party reorganizes itself.

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I agree with everything you’re saying, but I don’t think it matters to a Republican primary voter 3 years from now. It’s a lot easier to believe the Democrats cheated you out of a win and renominating Trump is your chance for redemption. The longer prominent Republicans indulge Trump now, the easier it’ll be for him to play that card later. I’m not an expert on human psychology, but I do know most humans will chose to believe the warm and fuzzy lie over the uncomfortable truth.

Also keep in mind Americans tend to remember Presidents more fondly with time. Bush and Obama’s approval ratings have only gone up since leaving office. I expect Trump nostalgia will set in for a good chunk of voters.

Especially true now that going to a Trump hotel or restaurant is akin to making a political statement. He’s basically eliminated half of his addressable market and won’t be able to offset that by steering campaign or tax dollars to his properties if he’s out of politics.

I’m talking individual Republican voters here, not Republicans in office. I have extended family who are only now engaged in politics because Trump drew them in over the past few years. Unless you’re the rare Republican politician holding office in a blue state, there’s no political incentive for you to speak against Trump now.

I don’t think most Trump voters give a shit what Mitt Romney has to say. Trump has built a massive apparatus for reaching out to his voters directly. He could declare his intent to run tomorrow and leverage that infrastructure to continue campaigning and fundraising without really missing a beat. What’s to stop him? It sounds like you’re assuming Trump is no longer the head of the Republican party. I’m not so sure that’s the case. I mean, who’s the alternative? Mitt? Mitch?

Nothing stops him I just think he will do those things for his never ending need for attention and adoration and not to seriously try to be President again.

Of course he is at the time as no viable alternative exists to that throne. But I think it diminishes over time and I’m not sure Republicans in 2023 when they decide a candidate are going to go with one of the few people who couldn’t win a second term.

That’s exactly what prompted him to enter the race in 2015, and it ended it with him in the White House.

Trump was a newcomer to the scene that had influence on voters, through his social media reach. But his influence on actual political processes has always been pretty limited. I mean before he was nominated obviously he had NO influence on political process. And during his presidency his role was mainly to make appointments and nominations and not veto laws the senate wanted pushed through. So I think it makes little sense to say he was “The Leader”. No doubt he was a useful figurehead.

Mitch McConnell and the Republican dominated Senate wielded most of the power during Trump’s presidency as well as before it. There wasn’t a vacuum of power within the party that Trump immediately filled upon nomination.

Let’s not forget Trump was really impeached. The Senate was the only reason he was able to remain president.

I actually can’t believe the PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES told the proud boys to stand back and stand by… whilst simultaneously designating antifa as a terrorist organisation. The proud boys are more or less the right wing equivalent to antifa, they’re both extremist organisations harbouring radical ideologies.

He also shared Britain first videos. People on this forum say his policies weren’t racist but he whipped up anger in far right groups regularly.

You all know Trump says dumb shit and mangles the English language. Go listen to the entire exchange and everything he said and think about context. In terms of probability, I don’t even think he even knows the meaning of “stand by”.

Logically, how can one come to the conclusion that Trump can say “I’ll condemn anything you want” and then tell the people he’s condemning to “stand by”? Seriously? Does it even make sense?

He might try, depending on how crazy he is. But no way do I vote for him. He’ll be going up against other serious candidates, Haley, perhaps Rubio, and others.

IF he does try, the established GOP will make damn sure he doesn’t get the nomination this time since a) they saw how much he hurt them as a party the first time and b) they have lots of better candidates.

If you get out of a deal with the devil you don’t go back in. I don’t think he tries to run again.

Agree. I think the party recognizes how he hurt them and more importantly I think the party members don’t want to deal with his behavior. I mean the guy pissed off Sheldon Adelson “not helping him enough”. That’s a bad look all around, and Trump ended up ignoring pretty much all the party advisors that tried to help early on.

This election saw by FAR the most high visibility GOP voices jump ship (by which I mean people other than senators–people who run agencies, Intel services, cabinet posts, etc). Looking at the list of people who ended up urging people to vote him out doesn’t instill a lot of confidence that they would willingly deal with him again in 2024.

Interesting take, and plausible as well. However, while I agree the republicans are walking a tightrope right now trying to deal with him without pissing him off I also don’t think they want to go back there again. I think you’ll see wholesale flight away from Trump as the years go on. Not now, but as it goes.

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You’re almost certainly right about this, but I don’t think it matters. Trump played to his base nonstop and it wasn’t enough to pull a second term this time around let alone 4 years from now. He simply needs more “non-Trump” moderate/independent voters to pull the lever for him. Those types of voters WILL care what other republicans say about him.

Exactly. My sense is that while he may maintain some influence with voters - especially his base - the process leaders will be eager to avoid dealing with him again because of his polarizing persona.

Agreed. This is one where watching it it felt very obvious (to me) he was condemning them… But he’s Trump so of course he mangled it.

But it was EXTREMELY easy to use it against him.

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Man, I’ve even broken down one of the dumbest things he’s said throughout his term and it was nothing like the media was trying to make it out to be:

“Look, having nuclear — my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart — you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I’m one of the smartest people anywhere in the world — it’s true! — but when you’re a conservative Republican they try — oh, do they do a number — that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune — you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged — but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me — it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are — nuclear is so powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what’s going to happen and he was right, who would have thought? — but when you look at what’s going on with the four prisoners — now it used to be three, now it’s four — but when it was three and even now, I would have said it’s all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don’t, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years — but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us, this is horrible.”

He’s saying:

  1. Nuclear powerful. Trump smart.
  2. He’s the smartest man on the planet but he has to prove his smartestness all the time because the fake news media is calling him dumb because he’s not a democrat.
  3. When Iran make nuclear during Iran-Irag War very powerful(1980, 1981 start make big nuclear), Uncle Trump from MIT foresaw the political power they would have today and he was also very smart because of smart Trump genes, very good ones. (2016 -35yrs = 1981) Trump smart.
  4. The other 3 countries, now 4 are being held “hostage”, i.e, prisoners by the Iran deal because of shitty terms he doesn’t specify but he’s from Wharton so he’s smart.
  5. Women smarter than men but Iranians and Persians, both separate peoples, find out only 150 years later but Trump still smartestest.
  6. The previous administration lacked negotiation powers they think Hilary woman less smart because woman so they got shitty terms from Iran and the Persians are also in it somewhere in the fine print since they’re separate countries and Trump really smart.

I think I should have a little, tiny bit of credibility just from doing this when I say Trump didn’t literally mean “stand by”.

More media spinning:

Yeah it’s why I keep saying I don’t care for 10sec clips of Trump taken out of context, nor those of Biden looking senile.

Just look at the blatant dishonesty here:

Reporter : “I do love Thomas Jefferson.”

Trump : "Okay, good. Are we going to take down the statue? Because he was a major slave owner. Now, are we going to take down his statue?

"So you know what, it’s fine. You’re changing history. You’re changing culture. And you had people – and I’m not talking about the neo-Nazis and the white nationalists – because they should be condemned totally. But you had many people in that group other than neo-Nazis and white nationalists. Okay? And the press has treated them absolutely unfairly.

“Now, in the other group also, you had some fine people. But you also had troublemakers, and you see them come with the black outfits and with the helmets, and with the baseball bats. You had a lot of bad people in the other group.”

Reporter : “Sir, I just didn’t understand what you were saying. You were saying the press has treated white nationalists unfairly? I just don’t understand what you were saying.”

Seriously, what is this nonsense? How can you even be gainfully employed if you can’t even understand something as basic as this?

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You a Liverpool man? Say what you want, but I’m picking the uber-asshole Ramos as my favorite Spaniard.

I’m still mystified by the US “racial” system in which Fernando Torres would be “Latino” and therefore non-white

image

…but Justin Amash, who’s more Palestinian than Tlaib (a self declared POC) is white, unless he breaks with Trump in which case he becomes a “Palestinian” on Breitbart.

Then you have Jeanine Pirro who’s more Arab than Tlaib but is somehow “white” and no one even mentions Alex Azar, who would probably classify himself a POC if he were woke…

Now if we take this as a given the big question to me becomes who will be the new candidates we haven’t heard much from before and along what lines will they draw the whole party? Will we see more of the same?

Trump unfortunately changed the game in terms of what will work for a candidate. So how would any level-headed candidate with boring, fiscally responsible policy goals be able to compete with another self-serving populist?

Let’s also see who lied in this segment, shall we? Joe got off without condemning Antifa. Ok, never mind He called them an “idea”. Alright it’s ok. He wasn’t asked to do any condemning that day.

Barr then asked Biden “Do you condemn antifa?” To which Biden answered: “Yes I do. Violence, no matter who it is.”

So, was JOE the one lying on stage?

They spinned something about Trump and didn’t call Joe out for lying? Good job, media, good job. :clap:

NOW, in fairness, I can also say he was probably only condemning the VIOLENCE some members of Antifa were involved in at that exact time and place, not the group or “idea” as he called it.

HOWEVER, that would mean Joe Biden has NEVER CONDEMNED ANTIFA unlike what the media was saying in retaliation to accusations by Trump.

Which would make Trump’s accusations TRUE.

Which would also make Trump calling the media… wait for it… FAKE NEWS… TRUE.

Amazing. Gotta love the media. :clap: :clap: :clap:

(Important note: A President should never, ever call the media fake news no matter how blatantly dishonest, pathetic and spineless they are if one values freedom of the press.)

I am and I believe you are trolling me with Ramos :joy: Tbf he’s a great footballer when he’s actually trying to play. Have you read Peter crouch’s how to be a footballer, he’s actually very funny. Pokes fun at himself and all the other footballers.

I’m with you on being mystified with America’s view that’s why I was asking. I assumed it was based on whether people had none European ancestry. But I guess it never makes sense.

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It won’t be a surprising if Uday or Qusay try to run in 24’. I think Trump Sr. will have moved on by then and will be ensconced in a lucrative ultra right wing media endeavor.

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I agree with everything you’re saying, but I also saw it all, and whether he meant anything at all by it - anything at all! - but fucked it up MATTERS. “Stand back and stand by” mean something when said by the Commander in Chief of the United States of America. Or should.

And that is, to me, the greatest issue. I’ve generally only been exposed to this apologism online, where a strong, divisive message board personality keeps saying stupid or insulting or flatly evil things, which they are unable to defend because they themselves are stupid, insulting, or flatly evil, but their sycophants come along and contort themselves trying to explain how the personality was only trying to say thus and such, it was never meant to be exactly what it sounded like, no! But this was the POTUS, so whether he was searching for “stand down” and didn’t find it or was actually sending subtle messages to his base, it’s unacceptable.

We either have a fear- and war-mongering nightmare or…a confused imbecile? Neither is acceptable to me. Both spell “crazy uncle,” which is how I expect the Republican machine to treat him after a brief regroup.

Because we now see how it goes with the self-serving populist, and hopefully the lesson the Dems learn from this is FIND A VIABLE FUCKING CANDIDATE. My GOD, what is wrong with those asshats? First Hillary, the least likable woman in America (I’d have gone with nearly any of the Republicans on that primary stage over her) and then Biden, who while he seems very nice and very earnest to me is basically a piece of toast. The talking heads keep trying to take meaning from that Joe didn’t do significantly better than Hillary when she was so flawed, but he was equally flawed. Not by the Hunter accusations, but by his age. The clips of him speaking 20 years ago vs now were compelling.

My fervent hope for 2024 is that the Republicans float a decent guy, he wins, soothes the 20% of Republican voters who held their noses to vote Trump last week just as I did for Hillary in 2016, and we all - by which I mean the 50-60% of Americans who are not extremists on either side - calm down. And learn our lesson about how intelligence and decency matter.

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Yeah, here’s the funny part. I wrote an extended rant yesterday and would have continued post after post saying all these and more but I deleted them lol. You can ask @H_factor, I think he read one before I deleted it.

I don’t want to diss Trump because it’s pointless now and it’s not really respectful to his supporters whom are probably feeling pretty down right now.

BUT I have a real problem with the MEDIA making shit up about him. You don’t fight lies with even more lies. And the fuckers put me in a position where I had to end up DEFENDING Trump because they were obviously lying. This happens IRL with my wife all the time because the CCP is using all these and exaggerating them as anti-US propaganda.