It’s shame the President is one of these as well.
Do you think hes more popular with them now than she was in 16? Both had to contend with a socialist primary challenge, but I felt 75% of dems were “with her” from the get go.
Gender have anything to do with it? Did Democrat voters have less confidence in a female candidate? Especially women voters?
Im genuinely interested in this especially if anyone here voted hilary and will vote Biden.
That’s what every poll says in a large fashion. He’s not just more popular than her among independents but also Dems as well.
She was pretty well disliked going in. Dems felt that either she stole the election from Bernie or the DNC rigged it. Obviously Dems preferred their candidate to Trump still, but on the whole Dem favorability for Biden has been consistently higher.
This has some good info:
Take Michigan for example. A state that Obama won in 2012 by 350,000 votes, Clinton lost by roughly 10,000. Why? She received 300,000 votes less than Obama did in 2012. Detroit and Wayne County should kick themselves because of the 595,253 votes they gave Obama in 2012, only 518,000 voted for Clinton in 2016. More than 75,000 Motown Obama voters did not bother to vote for Clinton. They did not become Trump voters – Trump received only 10,000 votes more than Romney did in this county. They simply stayed at home. If even a fraction of these lethargic Democrats had turned out to vote, Michigan would have stayed blue.
Wisconsin tells the same numbers story, even more dramatically. Trump got no new votes. He received exactly the same number of votes in America’s Dairyland as Romney did in 2012. Both received 1,409,000 votes. But Clinton again could not spark many Obama voters to turn out for her: she tallied 230,000 votes less than Obama did in 2012. This is how a 200,000-vote victory margin for Obama in the Badger State became a 30,000-vote defeat for Clinton.
I can only speculate how many Bernie Sanders supporters held out. Even after the Democratic convention, about a third of Sanders followers were still not supporting Clinton. A month before the election 55 percent of them were continuing to view Clinton negatively, and a week before the elections Sanders was still pleading with supporters in Madison, Wisconsin to “go beyond personality” and show up for Clinton.
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I think we agree on this - Hell, we’ve all seen it, even here in PWI - but I just don’t think 100% of the idiocy (anti-mask idiocy, for example) would be occurring without being called to do it by Trump. I think a very good percentage of these idiots would take smart Birx- and Fauci- approved measures to do the right thing but for Trump talking them out of it. Again, they follow. Agree, not all of them. But a lot of them.
But the problem circles back on itself - set aside influence on others, Trump himself refuses to follow their advice. - meaning, he’s not just King of the Idiots giving commands…he’s an idiot himself.
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Same.
I did not, because he is and was worthless and not a libertarian.
I will, again. Because I can’t stand those that seem to hate him most(the type of folks that like to pick out insignificant, procedural constitutional violations while ignoring States’ rights, the Second Amendment, etc.). Don’t have much love for Trump as a governor(small-g), but he’s better than the alternative and pisses off the right people.
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I should probably also add that it’s very possible the polls hurt Clinton as well. Everyone turns out in Florida because it’s almost always trending as a dead heat. Did Dems in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, PA stay home because they thought she had it in the bag? Hard to know but with as close as the margins were in some of those states if even a small percentage of Dems didn’t vote because they didn’t think it mattered it could have had an impact.
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Especially if Trump advocated it. Didn’t need to convince the left.
I guess we’ll know who is/was a better candidate in a day or so. What we know about Hillary is hindsight. Going into election day 4 years ago I wouldn’t have classified her as an awful candidate. I figured I was going to have to live with her as president. Like youve pointed out, there are a multitude of factors that determine an election outcome many of which have nothing to do with the candidate’s strength.
Frum is off his freaking rocker. There is NO WAY it’s that lopsided.
This is a distinct possibility. I’m still thinking that there are less undecideds out there than 2016 and that the shy Trump voter, while definitely a presence, won’t hit as hard as 2016 against a historically unliked opponent.
I would have classified her as awful based on the negatives, but I did fully believe I was going to have to live with her because I didn’t think Trump had a chance.
I think Trump has a chance this year, I just don’t see his opponent being as unliked. Also the vibe going into this one is different - in 2016 it was “look at Hillary, the first female president-to-be!” And I think people stayed home.
This year Biden and the democrats have been hammering the “this isn’t over til it’s over” scenario instead of the “inevitable win”. I think that gets more people out.
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Not all of it was hindsight. We knew going in she had very low approval numbers and high unfavorables even among some Dems. We didn’t need the election to tell us that. Now I’m not sure I would say she was an awful candidate. She won the popular vote by 3 million. We’ve certainly had candidates who have done worse than her.
But going in to Election Day knowing what we knew then about Clinton and know about Biden it’s obvious who is better positioned to be successful. I don’t even think a Biden loss means he was a worse candidate. He’s going in with clearly higher favorable numbers than her. That isn’t going to change no matter what happens in the election. It’s already baked in.
Biden could get way more votes than her and lose and he’s still going to have that on his side. But we don’t really have a ton to compare who a “better” candidate is than the numbers we have today in terms of how favorable/unfavorable a candidate is. Other than that direct comparisons will be difficult and likely results oriented. I’m expecting he will get more total votes than her by a decent margin but I also think Trump turnout will be higher than 2016.
I am not a fan of the Lincoln Project. That ad though… it’s cringe worthy and then some.
Consider that part of leading through a crisis and “doing your job” (as a leader) is exactly not to counter program and do what he did. You don’t think that his constant tweeting and politicizing affected any of his 60 million Twitter followers? There are literally thousands of people that might be alive if he had led by example specifically because he politicized a public health issue and a number of his voters took it and ran with it.
To me that is exactly part of leading and having a solution, regardless of how facilitation of agencies went. There are some things I agree with you on as far as facilitation goes, but his behavior and counter communication DIRECTLY influenced people to not take it seriously and/or to ignore health policies.
EDIT - To say that this has already been discussed because I was late to the thread, so ignore.
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I thought it was going to be a pro-Trump ad! I have no idea what the Lincoln Project is, but I didn’t want to be in agreement with it. So glad I was wrong! Trump is still batting 1000, as far as “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” goes!
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I have zero idea myself but the I bet I could insert a few scenes at the end and turn it into a pro-Trump ad.
Biden lookalike jolts up in bed. Back view. All the previous scenes were a nightmare. Camera pans to newspaper headline of emails on bed
Voiceover:
“Joe Biden isn’t just senile. He’s also paranoid. This is what hiding corruption does to a man. Don’t let him turn you into the same.”
Scene ends.
Trump:
“I’m Donald Trump and I approve this ad.”
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Agreed. I also think the fracking comments are probably overrated. It’s hard to find much polling but this article goes into it a bit. I think it was a bit of an unforced error by Biden but if he loses I don’t think fracking comments will be why. 52% of Pennsylvanian’s oppose fracking according to the most recent poll I could find. Riots, Covid, economy, etc are going to be far more significant IMO.
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Your thoughts on these things is always welcome, and valued.
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I think @H_factor nailed it. Look at RCP’s favorable numbers for Hillary and compare to Biden. In particular, Hillary was plagued by scandals going back decades. My girlfriend couldn’t bring herself to vote for Hillary in part because of the way she lashed out at Monica after Bill’s affair.
I have super cynical theory that I think applies here. A lot of women hate to see other women succeed. I see it in the workplace all the time. Women are hyper competitive with each other. I think seeing Hillary succeed at the literal highest level was just too much for some women to stomach, so they stayed home or voted for Trump out of spite or because of what her accomplishment would imply for their own lack of achievement.
Libertarians are supposed to be socially liberal and fiscally conservative, right? I figure Biden would be a no-brainer for you guys. Neither party has shown themselves to be fiscally conservative. At least you’d get someone closer to you on social issues. Hell, might even get legal weed out of it.
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Have you watched this? It’s (intentionally) hilarious.
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This I agree with. I see Biden getting more votes than Hilary, more from the “vote him out” crowd, but Trump still coming out on top.
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I see this as a proven fact! Don’t tell my wife I agree though.
Individual liberty is paramount. Democrats rarely line up on that. But this is a topic that will easily derail. I can hear the wolves gathering as I type this.
Thank you kindly sir! Same for you. You have a knack for looking at things in a unique and practical way that I too often miss.
Oh, that’s good. That was definitely worth a couple lolz. I do have to say, the “day after the world ended” 2016 was without doubt one of the most amusing days I’ve ever seen in politics.
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