US Presidential Election Predictions

I agree. And places like 538 try to account for that bias if one exists. Some swing left a bit some swing right a bit, and extremes exist on both sides that should largely be ignored.

I do think one thing that makes Covid election 2020 a bit dangerous in terms of polling is…Covid! Not only do we have to deal with the typical issues of polling like lies or people saying they will vote but won’t etc. Some people who are known Trump supporters might be in the hospital or Biden. Votes are going to go thrown out at a bigger size than any other election.

So Biden (or Trump)+5 in a state is already hairy because most have a MOE of approx 4%. So let’s call the lead Biden (or Trump)+1. ( Although it could be plus 9). It wouldn’t take many votes thrown out to give the person down the win. And then we are back with how could a +5 poll average be wrong stuff.

But I agree that most polling places want to be reputable and want to be as accurate as they can. But the unknowns in this election are even higher than 2016 (which had an insane number of undecideds).

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I confess I continue to designate Big Cat Rescue as the charity that benefits from my modest Amazon purchases.

How is that relevant to a 2020 presidential election thread? It sure is imo.

It was my attempt as a right wing operative/Cultist of Trump Worshiper to unfairly link Joe Biden with Carol BASKIN in the desperate hope that people would identify with Joe Exotic and vote Republican across the board.

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Your insistence on the use of all caps tells me you are suffering from a terminal case of BaskinDerangemenSyndrome.

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Trump’s got the glutes for a big deadlift. I doubt Joe could outpull him.

Listen up motherfucker. You don’t know shit about fuck when it comes to that bitch.

I think he’s got a four plate pull in him if he trains sensibly and continues to ram cheeseburgers down his gut.

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Lol. Tweet dastardly names at me all you want, just don’t come rioting at my front door. I gots two gunz, you know what I’m sayin’?

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I predict many dastardly names will be tweeted by many tweeters next week.

I’ll be busy testing out my bad day kettlebell strength with the double 70s and a full dose of pre workout regret.

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The dude is so incredibly full of shit. Day after day. Again I say if the media is killing Trump it’s doing it by recording him.

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I am really anticipating what Trump will do after he loses the election.

I haven’t followed the whole thread, but I can also see Trump voters telling pollsters they’re voting for Biden just for shits and giggles. And “to own the libruls” again come election day.

But, as @twojarslave would argue, a lie or falsehood like this doesn’t matter because no storefront damage occurred and no police men were injured.

You forgot to include the long term damage done to the neighborhood when new businesses never open in the first place.

You forgot all of the people who are getting killed and injured.

You forgot all of the families who have to live in these neighborhoods and weather the violence.

You also forgot the long term dilemma of convincing qualified candidates to self-select for a career in law enforcement. Why would anyone line up to for that job when leading Democrats will throw you right under the bus to advance a false narratives?

Bernie Sanders should go fuck himself. This is beyond disgusting. He’s a communist scumbag spewing hate on a platform run by totalitarian control freaks.

I’m still waiting for an explanation of harm. I’ll accept whatever you present. Hurt feelings from tweets and mysterious butterfly effects from tweets are perfectly fine if you can make the case.

Make the case. What do you lay at the feet of Fox News or any conservative journalist?

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I would argue that Trump’s lies, and the right-wing media outlets that reinforce them, tear at the fabric of our society and the reality in which we live.

I would argue falsehoods and misinformation about COVID (like his recent line) have lead to a situation where we are now, this far in, recording record numbers of cases in a day.

I would argue that his rhetoric on race has lead to climate where minorities feel they MUST protest for racial equality. The very tweets you are disgusted with by Bernie are your reaction to the situations caused by Trump and his voice boxes.

I see. Broad narratives with no clear examples somehow bring more harm into the world. Top it off with Orange man bad somehow unraveling society in under four years.

How do you lay the destruction of Ferguson at the feet of Trump, Fox News , et al? It is the same narrative of racist Darren Wilson murdering Mike Brown because he was black.

Mike Browns mother was on stage at the most recent DNC. Officer Wilson, who did nothing wrong, was rewarded with a shattered life for the political convenience of lying Democrats.

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Can you show direct causation between left wing media and harm to the world? It seems to me that you have a different standard of evidence for the left than the right in this regard.

This could be. We will find out soon enough.

How do you think so many people have come to believe that the police are racist to the core?

How would you have liked to be a Covington Catholic student getting death threats from blue check marks on Twitter?

How would you like to own property or run a business or raise a family in a peaceful protest zone while Democrat leaders order a police stand down?

What percentage of the narratives that have been whipping people up into a hatred of Trump are even remotely true? I listed many above.

Do you believe it is helpful to convince millions of Americans to believe things that aren’t true? Are the Trump flaws, lies and bad rhetoric so bad that unprecedented embellishments and years of false narratives are necessary?

Again this is an odd line to take when the actual President of the United States has been doing this since he started running for President. (Actually before).

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Okay you got me. Orange man bad.

That’s all I’ve got for today.