What I’m waiting for, @thunderbolt23, is who Trump will blame for it.
It certainly won’t be himself.
What l am troubled by, is a hit piece article that tries to show Trump responsible for a recession/manufacturing meltdown. Loppar’s chart really did not correct my post or chart - which dealt with Trumpish timeframe. It showed a long term upward trend. No rocket science, the US and world economies have been rising since dawn of societies.
Recession is generally proclaimed at 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP, not manufacturing index… lt was up 2% 1st quarter and l don’t see 3rd qtr released yet.
3rd qtr manufacturing index is up from 2nd quarter, according to FRED data point. YOY 3rd qtr 2019 showed a decrease from 109.675 to 109.517.
So not exactly troubling.
Is a recession coming to the US economy? Of course, it is indeed cyclical.
When? Many are seeing it approaching and there are some early indicators.
Trump started a trade war with China. This is a pretty logical bi product of a trade war with our largest manufacturing partner.
I think Loppar’s chart (with realistic axes) was meant to reflect the hilarious lack of growth Trump has seen relative to Obama, and what was most likely the upward trend it would have continued at sans trade war.
The top execs of the manufacturing industry have been claiming as such since it started.
Indexes are commonly used as the internal GDP of specific industries. Specific industries entering a recession is common in economic terms.
I think it’s troubling that projected growth is falling away due to a trade war the public doesn’t even support being in, don’t you?
Lifehack to kicking off a recession. Start an unwinnable trade war that forces your supporters onto welfare. People love that shit.
Considering GDP has continued to rise and manufacturing index rose (not shrank) from Q2 to Q3 - you are basically stating your opinion that you didn’t like the tariffs.
Fine, but the numbers are not going with your opinion.
Show me numerical data, l will plot you cycles: gdp, housing starts, manufacturing index, stock market, interest rates, my weight, your bench press, how many people post in pwi daily.
My opinion is that we have nurtured a possible existential competitor by not halting China’s actions since allowing them into the WTO. Product dumping, closed markets, currency manipulation, fake islands to expand a belligerent growing military…
Thus don’t object to pain versus being put out of business.
Can you post that Q3 number? I was under the impression from your last post that you haven’t seen it yet.
I’m parroting the opinion of the market at large. It’s pretty basic economics that the trade war has slowed down all industries touched by it.
The numerical data you posted isn’t enough? The ones showing a distinct slowing of growth during Trump’s time in office? Slowing that didn’t seem to kick in until the trade war did?
Personally I’m more worried for agriculture. I don’t think manufacturing was ever coming back.
And you think a trade war is going to fix that? What market impacts have you seen leading you to “it’s working!”
Was that the only other option? Here I was seeing a decade of growth prior to the trade war hamstringing it.
Manufacturing is posted, GDP the accepted ‘official’ marker of recession hasn’t, but it was up 2% Q1.
I don’t follow. I just stated manufacturing rose Q3. That index rose from 101 to 110 in
his first 2 years. These same people say China is collapsing because their growth rate dropped from 9% to 6%. Do they have some systemic problems? I think so, from being overbuilt in factory capacity to hidden debt at home and abroad through empire building under an economic guise, pollution, pockets of civil unrest.
Ok l have highjacked this thread too much.
Have a good one.
Pretty sure this is game over for DJT if it sticks. He barely survived the Broward County fraud as it existed in 2016. Looks like Florida won’t go Red in 2020.
Don’t count the GOP out yet. They’re masters of winning elections with limited popular vote.
Imagine the level of fear mongering if you phrase the message right. “Democrats are stacking the vote with KNOWN CRIMINALS. We need your donation and vote! Click here for more information”
Obviously you’d need to Trump it up a bit, but the concept is there.
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LOL. Not even sure how one can be seen as having completed a sentence without paying whatever fines and restitution were ordered. Always amusing to watch Democrat’s freak out over felons’ voting rights…incredible.
Edit: I wonder whether their desire to see felons’ rights restored extends to the right to keep and bear arms? Doubt it. Arms can be used against Massa.
He is on pace for the most money ever. Outpacing Obama even. Not bad for a dotard. I guess impeachment is good for business. He’s raising millions in California for heaven’s sake! I thought they banned him from visiting or something.
I don’t know who’s sending him all this cash. I thought only heroin addled old bigots in fly over country supported him. I don’t see a path to victory in 2020. But he’s looking to make it closer than I thought it would be.
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Iirc California has the 2nd highest number of trump voters in the country. Don’t quote me on that, they were definitely top 3.
What makes you think they don’t have money to donate? Spending what you don’t have is the most bipartisan aspect of Murica.
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BRB, going to go move several million of them to Nevada before November 2020 haha.
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They’re buying a place in paradise, giving away money so that the flawed King Cyrus can fight the good fight against the socialist antichrist.
It’s easy raising money if you’re portraying the next election in those terms.
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Have em storm area 51 while they’re moving. The last one was such a letdown
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You might be on to something. From an article re Cyrus -
Amazingly, the king would accomplish these noble tasks even though he did not “know” Jehovah (45:4, 5). In other words, though he was a pagan in sentiment and practice, yet, as an unconscious tool in the hands of the Lord, he would contribute mightily to the Jewish cause, and so, indirectly, to the coming of God’s greater Anointed, Jesus of Nazareth.
Too late.
Trump has already been placed into some prophetic position by certain Evangelicals.
All those prayers at the tomb of the King of Kings Cyrus the Great weren’t left unanswered. For just this week the Achaemenid Empire has recovered the lost Western province of Syria.
Israel will have to be surrounded with its enemies at the door, to herald the return - no?
Of course, preceded by a king of the north and a beast from the west moving towards the same sleepy backwater that occupies so much of the world’s attention.
@Mufasa I can see men used to satisfy prophecy, while they are not followers themselves. But gee, that makes me a nutter in the valley of unbelievers. Not directed at you btw.
Orange?
You think that was a hit piece? You may be beyond hope.
Yes - as the “hit piece” notes, it is a recession in manufacturing. And something is causing it while the rest of the economy isn’t quite trending in that direction. The point of the “hit piece” was to ask the (perfectly fair) question what is causing it?
And it’s the really dumb trade war. Manufacturing is highly sensitive to changes in raw materials - like the stuff we rely from China in a billion different supply chains. It’s not rocket science. Actions have consequences.
You just can’t admit that Dear Leader could ever take an action that might cause something bad to happen.
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