I don’t know, Nards.
Trump has enough enablers, fan-boys and competent people around him, that I don’t think he is going anywhere. (Although…trying to predict anything with Trump is as inexact as it gets…)
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You’re certainly correct that predictions concerning Trump are made at one’s peril. That said, considering how much he hates being POTUS, if Mueller comes down with money-laundering charges involving both Trump and his family (which seems to me a distinct possibility at this juncture), I could see Trump resigning to avoid prosecution and/or garner a pardon from Pres. Pence. As for the fanboys, for many Trump simply represents a GOP pen to sign their legislation, and a Pres. Pence could serve that function just as well, and without the Twitter distraction.
So if the Mueller thing gets really hot, I could see Trump resigning, claiming he’s the victim of a deep-state conspiracy. He then starts his new extreme-right-wing media network, making a kajillion dollars in the process.
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I’m wondering if his #1 Fanboy, Hannity, knows this and sees himself holding a prominent position…or maybe even an ownership stake? (Just thinking out Loud…but I don’t think that the possibility is too far fetched…)
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Question for all of you guys. What is the long game of Trump’s ACTIONS? Not his adolescent tweeting and avoiding jail time and being an all around gold fish. But so far I see two or three tracks:
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Normal Republican Stuff: Tax Cut, Regulatory Reform, enforcing immigration law, entitlement reform (like in the 90’s), pro energy policy, supporting Israel/Saudi foreign policy, saber rattling NK etc…
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Erasing the entire legacy of Obama. Individual mandate is gone. Trump is systematically rolling back every single “pen and a phone” executive order. This makes sense with #1. Especially where pipelines, drilling, CPP are concerned.
So far, this all makes sense. In some ways he’s at least trying to do what he said he would. Then it gets a little weird.
- I’m not sure how to phrase this. And it could be my tinfoil hat mind running with things that aren’t there… bankrupting blue state governments, namely California.
A.Capping the federal SALT write off subsidy at $10k.
B.ICE crackdown on illegals, with or without cooperation from local leos.
C.Stopping states from using MJ tax money.
D.Restricting H1B’s
I’m reminded that MBS and CDO only needed an 8% default rate to become absolutely worthless and collapse the world economy. What percentage revenue loss could California sustain before the markets will downgrade their $400B debt ($1.3T liability) and charge them higher interest?
I don’t think all of this needs to cause a mass exodus to be a really big problem for CA. If the feds make it less attractive to live in CA and even 1, or 2 percent of your tax payers decide to leave. Real estate values could actually fall in areas. And then tax payers that stayed will be under water.
Maybe he’s not going for BK the state… But push them into a recession/correction. What is Sacramento going to do to fight all this? Especially the MJ tax money. The feds could seize anything going through and FDIC bank and hold it there while the court battle rages.
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There’s certainly no denying that Trump has screwed up a fair number of things over the course of his life and made some bad decisions. That’s not the same as being a total idiot.
Either Trump is pretty good at getting stuff done or he is surrounded by a crew of geniuses who remain invisible and can do anything they want, but choose to fulfill the whims of a belligerent old fool. Occam’s razor.
The long game is the US losing its status as the leader of the free world, full stop. It is already happening; we are losing influence by the day. Unfortunately, it will not be readily reversible once Trump leaves office.
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Seems to just be “piss off the Dems.”
Imo people are trying to read into a greater line of thinking that just isn’t (and never was) there.
Trump’s game is to let the GOP do what they want while he tweets and plays golf. Does anyone really believe he is actually trying to govern? The good thing about that is it will keep his children and son in law from doing anything.
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In agreement with Z here. He has no long game other than to look like a “winner”.
He thought he’d coast through this presidency by making a few changes that past administrations and Congress are too stupid to see, the economy explodes into the stratosphere and everyone ends up loving him, clearing the way for an easy second term win. It’s so simple, he can phone it in and keep playing golf.
Reality has smacked him upside the head though, and now he’s going to continue to do whatever it takes to smite his enemies. It’s always been a zero-sum game for him (funny, Putin operates off this same principal), and if the losers end up being Americans since Plan A didn’t pan out, so be it.
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I think this is a lot of it, but some of that includes signing the things that fall within the GOP agenda. Kind of this:
I think this is a consequence of electing unethical leaders, which Trump clearly is.
I actually don’t think he wants to be President for a second term, but it would be hard for his ego to not run. He certainly liked campaigning, so maybe that will be more fun than his current attempt (or pretend attempt) at governing.
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To be fair he like it so much he never stopped. His real calling was the campaigning. For all his flaws, drumming up votes for himself in a room where he can exclusively control the conversation and talk about himself is easily his greatest talent.
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Obama was also great at it! (does whataboutism apply for compliments??)
I think that is actually a big concern that I don’t know what the solution is. Being able to persuade people is fine, but not if you are pumping them with fear and persuading them towards bad things. It’s ironic that it isn’t positions or governing ability that have any relation to winning elections for Presidents.
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Obama drumming up votes kinda had a different “flavor” to it though (is that even close to the right word?).
Obama’s strength lied in “look at what we can do together” (always felt like a straight MLK ripoff) whereas Trump’s strength lies in “you can’t do this without me.”
I’d say this applies to nearly every national level politician. It’s that “who you know vs what you know” dilemma.
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It’s everywhere, sadly. The UK defence secretary post was given to an unknown party whip last year. This passed over, and I shit you not, a former soldier, turned MP, who ran into gunfire and attempted to save a dying cop who, very sadly, died of his wounds.
The guy who was chums with the PM got the job over that resume.
EDIT: This was during the terrorist attack on Westminster, by the way. While the rest of the MP’s were, understandably, trying to not get stabbed or ran over by a car.
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You’ve got nothing on America bud. Start googling the qualifications of Trump’s cabinet.
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I’m not sure you guys know what’s happening in Poland, but it’s pretty much “what Trump and co would have done if given a free reign”.
I see that some more insightful political commentators in the US have noted the similarities and the dangers of “but the economy” reasoning.
Sure, skeptics may say that the political systems are very different, that the US has a strong system of the checks and balances and the cult of liberty and that Polish lessons are not applicable to the world’s preeminent superpower, but the death of American exceptionalism under Trump has shown that “it cannot happen here” is simply not enough of an argument.
In Poland, the ruling Law and Justice Party pretty much dismantled the judiciary and legislative branches and went into full fledged authoritarianism.
As the economy has never been better, the middle and upper middle classes simply don’t care. Purchasing power parity is on Western European levels and all that without the downside of the terrorist threat. Exotic foreign vacations, ski trips, Crossfit and whatnot are the order of the day and very few care that some judges have been fired or that some laws guaranteeing this or that have been abolished.
“Sure, they’re really overzealous idiots with an agenda, but all politicians are like that, just look at Trump” is the answer I was usually given with a dismissive wave of the hand.
The lower classes, although objectively better off than before, are constantly bombarded by shrieking propaganda from a formidable array of news outlets that could be best described as what would happen if you’d mix the Vatican, Alex Jones and Sean Hannity.
People are led to believe that there is a vast ongoing anti-Christian conspiracy (in a country that’s 90% Catholic) and only the current government stands in the way of a cabal of liberals, gays, environmentalists, pro-choice advocates, Muslims and Jews bent on destroying the country.
And this conflations of issues into a us vs. them dichotomy is extremely successful in the alt-right media sphere in Poland - for example, if you’re protesting the government’s destruction of the largest Nature Preserve in Europe under Unesco protection you’re obviously a proponent of sharia law, mandatory transgender kindergarten teachers and forced abortions for Christian women.
Mr. Szyszko, who did not respond to an interview request, complained in a panel presented by a right-wing news organization that the Bialowieza Forest had become “some kind of a flagship for the left-wing-libertine movement of Western Europe.”
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In reality, what really gives a country influence?
Fear of them kicking your ass or maybe giving them phat stacks of cash.
Otherwise, influence just doesn’t seem that common.
Sorry, but I don’t see what you’re getting at here.
The status of the “US as the leader of the free world” consisted(consists) is based on us paying people money and on our ability to assert military force. Trump’s foreign policy affects the degree to which we do those things, but does not bear a great influence on our ability to do those things. Thus, your assertion that Trump’s foreign policy is eroding our position in the world seems overblown.
While those are important abilities, to say our status as the leader of the free world is solely a function of them is, at best, a gross oversimplification.
In terms of leadership, choosing not to do those things is indistinguishable from not having the ability to do them. So even by the flawed definition offered above, Trump has diminished our leadership.
There is no serious debate as to whether Trump and his policies have eroded our position in the world. (For God’s sake, his leitmotif is America First.) From the first page of a Google search:
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