By historically I meant in recent years, not “history.”
Apologies for the weird verbiage
This is the time period I was referring to. You’ve gotta go back to pre 9/11 to see a blue winner in PA’s 18th. And its not like the races we’re even close
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Murphy had a good run. It probably would have been a retirement position for him had this scandal not broke, but the election doesn’t make the area any bluer or redder than it has been. These elections happen at a personal level. Lamb got out, pounded the pavement and impressed a couple more people than Saccone. Saccone was hoping that a couple of rallies would carry him through it.
He should have hit the fish fries and fire halls.
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Do you think the results would have changed if Saccone put in equal effort?
Personally- Yes. Maybe not equal, but different. I don’t know that a big show of things with a huge add campaign and having a Trump appearance exactly helped.
The more discrete social functions of a community are a way better method. Actually meeting and talking to people at this level helps. The other thing is that Saccone was already (somewhat) known, at least to a lot of influential people, which may not have helped. Lamb is well connected and supported, but has a clean slate.
You’d never hear an official word about it, but I’ve been told by other people that just about all candidates are basically informally pre-selected. There are a lot of local politicians that come and go pretty quickly based a lot more on who they cooperate with and how rather than an actual party label.
Which imo makes it even more impressive the Dems won (even if it was purely because the GOP chose to lose it).
If both sides can put in equal effort and the vote comes out GOP ala past 5ish election cycles, that would signify a red leaning area to me.
Given the state of GOP gerrymandering, every time they lose a stronghold it blows my mind. It also reinforces my preconceived notion that Trumpers can be swayed
It’s not just lamb, but it is one of the largest swings (I don’t really count the Roy Moore election as normal, but there are others) of many that are showing a blue wave. How big? Who knows, but in my opinion the GOP is getting what they deserve for siding with Trump.
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Sure they can. My one brother (lives near by) is a union plumber, about a notch left of me, supports local dems- Voted for Trump simply for the fact that he and many others similar to him felt that Hillary was simply not an option.
His support is built on sand and could shift without a moments notice.
On the local reps- Lamb could easily have a run just like Murphy if he keeps his nose clean and works with the right people. As short lived (3 mos.) as this current position is, if he plays it right he could easily have a career position if he doesn’t go all Luke Ravenstahl in the next couple months.
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The GOP is supposedly anti-establishment. They run both the Senate and House as well as the Oval Office. This makes it the establishment party. They can’t blame the Democrats if they don’t do well and they can’t act like the underdogs either.
Just curious. Has it shifted at all since Trump’s been in office?
I’ll disagree here, mainly because I don’t think there will be much in the way of macro gains from the tax cut. I think tax rates were fine where they were, subject to some smart “loophole” closures. What needs to happen is a new wave of entrepreneurship, and the tax cuts won’t move that needle very much.
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He’s still not Hillary, right?
We’ll need a better candidate to run against him net time to know for sure.
Trudeau came to see me. He’s a good guy. Justin. He said ‘No, no, we have no trade deficit with you, we have none. Donald, please,’” Trump said. “Nice guy, good looking guy, comes in — ‘Donald we have no trade deficit.’”
“I said, ‘Wrong Justin, you do.’ I didn’t even know. … I had no idea. I just said ‘You’re wrong.’ You know why? Because we’re so stupid. … And I thought they were smart. I said, ‘You’re wrong Justin,’” Trump continued.
“He said, ‘Nope we have no trade deficit.’ I said, ‘Well in that case I feel differently,’ I said, ‘but I don’t believe it.’ I sent one of our guys out, his guy, my guy, they went out, I said ‘Check because I can’t believe it,’” he said.
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On a macro level you may be right, but I was talking on an individual level–if you save 3% and medical goes up 6%, you’re still losing ground but not as much as if you got NO extra money back. It’s a net gain.
The tax cuts will move entrepreneurship more than the status quo would have IMO. I don’t think they went nearly far enough, but things are an improvement for the small business over the status quo. I don’t think you can on one hand say the rates were fine as they were and then say “we need more entrepreneurship…but a tax cut wont move it as much as we need so we are better off not moving the needle at all”.
That doesn’t make any sense to me.
I think the general consensus is wanting a way to move the needle that doesn’t inevitably lead to a partisan slashing of programs Dems heavily rely on.
Whoa on that one, pfury.
There are helluva’ lot of Republicans/Conservatives; in both Red and Blue States; that depend on Federal Programs and aid.
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Pa 18th has more dems than reps population wise. They just didn’t turn out as Well, until recently.
It’s numbers and demographics. I may be wrong, and time will certainly tell, but when the slashing inevitably starts it’s not going to be corporate welfare, or an ungodly inflated defense budget (which is essentially corporate welfare to the industries that support it).
When the slashing starts, it’s not going to be on farming welfare. It’s going to be on programs heavily weighted with minorities. Minority brackets are heavily in favor of Dems. Politics is ugly. No politician is going to bite the hand that feeds them when it comes to funding of this level.
Happy to hear it haha. 1 rural county down, 2000 to go. God bless Donald Trump
I don’t know about that.
Trump needs someone who can translate his ramblings into English.
Ryan’s been promising his people entitlement slashes since before I knew he existed. This isn’t biting the hand that fed him. It’s obeying the hand.