To compare to Ukraine, Taiwan is a major strategic ally, a major economic partner and has a much better political system that values human rights and liberties. Ukraine has always been a backwards land of corrupt remnants of the Socialist grifters that were never up-rooted, similar to Russia in that regards. An oligarchy with little to offer the USA except a place for our political crooks to launder their money.
That is partly why I suspect there is a LOT more to the Ukraine war story than is publicly known at this time. That’s always been true in war. Everyone lies during peacetime, but the deception takes on a whole new form when the racket of war is being both planned and conducted. It will likely be decades before a clear picture emerges for you and I to examine.
Back to the Pacific…
Japan is our biggest ally in Asia, and if you look at a map you will see how Taiwan joins with the southern Japanese archipelago to from a blockade around most of China’s coastline. Taiwan’s strategic importance is hard to understate, simply for the geography. Those islands are all aircraft carriers, missile bases, and naval resupply hubs.
Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturing is one of planet Earth’s economic crown jewels at the moment. Its success compared to China has always been an embarrassment to the CCP, lending an ideological component as well.
Defending Taiwan gives the USA a chance to sink the Chinese navy, setting their shipbuilding back by years and securing American global naval dominance.
A conflict over Taiwan would be very, very different than anything that’s happened before. A staggering number of missiles will be launched in the first days and weeks of the war. Nobody REALLY knows how good they are at taking out things like destroyers and aircraft carriers, but we will surely find out if that war kicks off. Naval warfare has always been fast and deadly and that has only become increasingly true.
Sophisticated missiles are hard to make, and can be fired a lot faster than they can be produced. A protracted war might see missile stockpiles depleted rather fast, turning it into a war of industrial capacity to produce ships, planes, missiles and drones. The drones are another big x-factor.
Crippling China’s navy and denying them the geography and the industry on the island, as well as use of the South China sea, could bring about a neutering of China that would be an economic, social and humanitarian disaster, in addition to all of the political instability such a thing would produce.
I don’t see any protracted land wars unless they successfully land troops on Taiwan, sink or cripple the US navy and establish reliable supply lines from the mainland to support an invasion. That does, however, remain a possibility. They have been building up their military for this singular goal for quite some time. Have weapon, will hunt.
I imagine South Korea could be invaded if N. Korea gets roped in, which they likely will. They can simply launch artillery shells against Seoul, and that’s going to be a problem. We would likely attempt to move north and occupy that ground as soon as possible, which won’t be easy.
For now, the USA remains the most autarkic nation in history, with only a few key resources like tungsten, molybdenum, titanium and a few others being firmly controlled by China and Russia. We rely on Taiwan for semiconductors, which are vital. Semiconductor capacity is being built up here, but that takes time in both infrastructure and human resource development.
To me, Taiwan is the biggest concern for a flashpoint that might spark a large-scale global conflict, where China might align with Russia and create problems for everyone else.
Please invade Russia from the west if this happens. The treasures of Murmansk and the glory of conquest await the Finnish people.
Yes, because it is an oligarchy with no possibility of exporting whatever political ideology pretends to guide it. College students will not become enamored with Putin and dedicate years of study to his political philosophy, going on to infect other young minds with the same virus.
Putin poses zero ideological threat, zero conventional military threat and has no distinct advantages over us with nuclear and digital warfare.