[quote]Regular Gonzalez wrote:
Here are his splits for the last 30m:
70-80m (0.82 sec)
80-90 (0.83 sec)
90-100 (0.90 sec)
If he ran through to the line he probably could have gone 0.83 secs for the last 10m. Based on this, with a better reaction time I would say he is already capable of going very close to breaking 9.6 in perfectly still conditions.
I don’t really trust those conversion tables, but add in favorable wind conditions and he is already capable of going well under 9.6.
This will probably seem crazy, but I honestly think it’s possible he will eventually break 9.5.
What are you predicting for the 200m?
I think he will probably break 19.5, but I don’t think the WR will go down this Olympics. If he stays injury free he will eventually take that record as well though.
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I saw his splits late last night, too. He actually ran .82 from 50-60, 60-70, and 70-80, before starting his celebration. I’ll have to check, but I don’t think anybody’s ever maintained a .82 split for more than 10 meters before, with Powell and Greene both doing it only from 50-60.
You can figure that he lost .06 seconds with that celebration, and that’s being conservative. At 6’5", he will always be slow out of the blocks, but his reaction time can definitely be improved. Just with those things he’s already down to 9.60. If he gets a favorable wind, can improve that first 20-30 meters, gets a good jump, and runs to the line, then I think a 9.49 is possible. I would normally say that there are too many “ifs” there for that to happen, but at only 21 he has a lot of races ahead of him to make it happen.
The 200’s going to be very interesting. Bolt’s been running in the 10.2/9.4 range. The extra 100m work he’s been doing is sure to help that first split, but again, he is 6’5" and I just have a hard time believing that he will ever run a great curve. Nobody in the field can touch his top end speed, and nobody can maintain like him. I still think he’ll run in the 19.5’s. He may have a chance to break 19.4 eventually, but I think MJ’s record is still safe for a while.
Dix is also going to be fun to watch in the 200m, which is his better event. Dix is 5’10" and a great curve runner, he could easily come off the curve ahead of Bolt. He also has the top end speed to threaten Bolt a bit. I don’t think Dix will win, but if Bolt makes any mistakes it is possible. I think the biggest thing holding Dix back right now is his weight. I think if he would have given up football a littler earlier he would be in a much better position now. I think he’s looking pretty soft and could probably shed 10 lbs without losing significant muscle. If Dix had been running pro for a couple of years, I would give him better odds. He’ll never touch Bolt in the 100, but I think he can be another 9.7 guy. With the right training and experience, I think Dix will probably be Bolt’s biggest competitor in the 200, and should be running in the 19.5’s by next year.
What do you think about Powell? I really feel bad for him, and Tyson Gay too. Powell is without a doubt the fastest man to never win an Olympic medal, and at 25 he may be on the downward part of his career the next time the Olympics come around. Through in the fact that I think a 9.69 is the best race Powell is capable of, and with Bolt around now his chances of ever winning a major championship are slim. It’s too bad. He’s a good guy but he just can’t get his head straight for the big races. You could see it before the race even started. Bolt was out there dancing, perfectly relaxed, and having fun. Powell was stiff as a board and just looked frightened standing there by his blocks.
