It’s amazing how spite works. We’re a nation of mean teenage girls with a perfect commander in tweet.
1 Like
I’ve said many times that Trump has protected himself by having bad shit happen all the time. In a sense we’re not surprised by anything that he says or that comes out that he’s done. We’re so used to it now that it doesn’t really have an impact.
His cultists get off on it. The problem isn’t that he’s an old man with no filter, we probably all have some relative like that, but that his followers are fans of that behavior. There is a large number of Americans who are upset that in the real world there are consequences for being an asshole. We’re a nation of dysfunctional fat asses.
Welcome to the dark side. Misanthropy, embrace it.
2 Likes
I don’t necessarily disagree with you, but two points to consider. First, who do you think is the more palatable candidate - Bernie or Hillary? Personally, I think Hillary was the worst candidate either party has put forward in decades. She was the subject of an FBI investigation for a good chunk of her Presidential campaign, and she still won the popular vote. Those votes weren’t in the right places to give her the win, but her margin of loss in those states was very small. I think Bernie is fundamentally likable and authentic, which matters to voters. He’s going to outperform Hillary, especially in places like Michigan and Wisconsin.
Second, no candidate from either party has won a modern election without building a coalition that included brand new voters. The biggest potential source of new voters is the 18-29 year-old demographic, which overwhelmingly supports Bernie. This group is historically unreliable, but there’s good reason to believe they’ve been “activated”. They turned out en mass in the 2018 midterms. I mean, Bernie did say he was going to legalize weed by executive order on day one. If that doesn’t turn out the millennials, I don’t know what will.
I think selecting the right running mate is going to be super critical for Bernie. He needs someone who is part of the Democratic establishment to ease the concerns of more typical and moderate Democratic voters. There seems to be a gulf between him and Obama. He can address that by picking someone close to Obama or at least someone from his administration. I think that’ll motivate Obama to campaign hard for Bernie, which will be a boon to his election chances. Last, I think his running mate needs to be a minority, ideally a black person. Black people didn’t turn out for Hillary like did for Democratic candidates in the past. Bernie needs them in his coalition if he’s going to win. With that said, who wants to to speculate? I think he’d do well by choosing Susan Rice, maybe Kamala Harris, maybe Deval Patrick. I like Cory Booker a lot personally, but he never seems to gain traction on the national stage.
1 Like
Schadenfreude. It’s why reality tv is so popular.
Interesting analysis, and I think it makes sense. Whether it turns out that way is anyone’s guess. However, I do think Kamala Harris would be an absolutely awful choice for Bernie for a few reasons.
First, she triggers the “crazy liberal” boogieman even more for the GoP voters, which is not something that Sanders needs help doing. His “socialist” moniker does plenty of that by itself. Teaming with a running mate that plenty of GoP voters already dislike (say, more than Booker or a neutral-ish candidate) gives plenty of ammo to the opposition.
Second, she is an absolute walking time bomb for Trump tweets and nicknames. I mean, outside the general party dislike of her the very last thing Bernie needs as a running mate is someone who will make it even easier for Trump to firebomb the campaign with nicknames and tweets. It was effective in 2016 for him and it’s only gotten more effective IMO (sadly).
Kamala is basically handing ammunition to the other party.
The way Trump has been grabbing up liberal real estate he’s going to play that card before Bernie ever gets a chance to.
1 Like
Do well at firing up the Trump base even more, maybe.
Imagine the head explosions from the ranking GOP. Shit would be legendary
1 Like
Their heads will explode if they don’t get a nice appointment on the board of a couple of those companies!
The only reason any of them are against it is that the offer hasn’t been good enough!
1 Like
Very interesting analysis, @kjm.
I have come to the conclusion that part of why I am perplexed at the appeal of Sanders is that I am not in this demographic. Bernie certainly is pushing buttons with this demographic and with me…but every time he opens his mouth with some “solution”; I only see mounting debt, taxes and this big “whooshing” sound coming from my wallet.
Look…Trump has, and probably will…spend just as much…but Trump is enough of a bullshitter to at least make people think he is more fiscally responsible…and that’s even after he has publicly said he doesn’t give a damn about deficits.
There is a LONG way to go still. And maybe this is all going to take some time…but at this point, I am very discouraged about our possible “choices” in November.
1 Like
One other important “test” is coming up:
On Friday, South Carolina Democrats and voters nationwide will have their first opportunity to see how candidates perform in a state whose Democratic electorate is expected to be mostly African-American. Sixty percent of the turnout in South Carolina is expected to comprise black voters.
This should be interesting.
@Aragorn, @doogie - The people who are going to be turned off by Susan Rice or Kamala Harris aren’t going to be voting for Bernie anyways. But, I get your points. Either could be a drag on the ticket. Bernie’s team needs to figure out who is going to add to his coalition or inspire his base to turn out in higher numbers. I think his base is already pretty rabid, so he needs to try to grow the coalition. The only risk is appearing to be a sellout if he picks someone too moderate/mainstream. Bernie is actually in the same spot as Trump back in 2016 with regard to the VP pick. He needed someone who would legitimize him among the Republican base and moderate the ticket.
Trump doesn’t govern from a place of values. This would be an entirely political calculation for him. Does he gain more voters than he loses with this choice? My gut says no. My anecdotal experience is there are still a lot of Trump supporters who subscribe to the “marijuana is a gateway drug” school of thought.
It’s going to come down to who can make the better case. Bernie has a case to make if he can just figure out how to make it without going down the “this is what a Democratic Socialist is” rat hole.
You have to keep in mind that Bernie’s positions are starting points. He’ll have to moderate his message in a general election. If he does win, anything he puts forward is going to have to be approved by congress, which is likely going to temper the his more extreme policies even further.
1 Like
I think budgets/deficits would be about the same between the two. The difference is how the money is spent. I would rather have something like single payer health insurance than tax cuts for the wealthy and a larger military budget. In economics a popular saying is that you can have guns or butter, but not both. I think we should prioritize butter as we have plenty of guns.
1 Like
Exactly.
Yep. He could do it just to remove it from the lefts bag of tricks. Just like he spit roasted fiscal conservatism in order to win over then seal the deal on a whole lot of blue collar/union voters. Used to be a stronghold of blue team votes. Now, not so much.
Start dog whistling about infrastructure, roads, and bridges, etc, and who’s ears perk up?
I believe he would. A good many “conservatives” and even actual conservatives, libertarian leaning/anarchocapitalists that “don’t smoke that stuff” actually just mean that they aren’t Bob Marley, but if someone pulled out a bag of weed at the right time they’d have a toke or two.
Unfortunately for almost everybody the legal weed thing has been a tremendous lever to get people excited, but it’s a one trick pony. Once pulled, that’s it, the trick has been played and even the most rudimentary politician knows that. Clinton knew it, Obama knew it, and Bernie knows it too.
1 Like
Agreed. I was thinking more along the lines of increased competing turnout against his ticket–we know that nobody who is turned off by Rice or Harris is going anywhere near the ticket, but if enough moderates are put off and Trump throws enough red meat to the base then you might see increased voter turnout for GoP.
Also agreed. The doubled edged sword of a rabid base is that they may turn if they don’t like the running mate. I think he has less room for error than Trump did in 2016.
Agree.
All Trump had to do was pick a “traditional” Christian Conservative, and he was good to go.
Sanders choice will require much more thought and nuance.
1 Like
I’m not sure they would care. Trump has done so many things that fly in the face of what Republicans have been for in the past decade that I think at best this would be met with eye rolls from them.
1 Like
I know some of them (parents and friends parents) that would not be happy about it. They would still vote for trump if I am betting on it, as the DEM would do that plus not be against abortion.