The Push to 2020 Has Begun!

Agree, @zecarlo.

My issue is that the GOP will work the system; squeeze as much out of it as they possibly can; then paint themselves as some moral, ethical and fiscally Conservative bastion of American and Christian Truth. (And the DEMS/liberals are accused of “virtue-signaling”? I really don’t understand the phrase if this is somehow just something they do).

Another example? Even on this very Board (speaking of being the party of "fiscal responsibility); people have had the nerve to try and explain off “Conservative” Government Tit sucking as: 1) “Well…its OUR money too!” 2) “Not one Republican helped draft the Bill!” or 3) “If others benefit from it, why not take the money?”

And the list goes on.

Again; if you are gouging on slop at the trough like it’s your last meal, don’t sit there all innocent and call the DEM next to you a pig.

Right on. If you believe the U.S. should maintain any form of military, don’t oppose any other government spending. If your state has poor citizens and your Governor isn’t willing to stand up to the U.S. and deny the poor benefits that he’s not going to be allowed to turn down anyway, he’s just a hypocrite that is no different from any Democrat.

I’ll say it again:

If you are gouging on slop at the trough like it’s your last meal…don’t get on your Holier-than-thou pedestal and call the DEM next to you a pig.

That really isn’t hard to understand.

This ought to get really interesting on multiple levels

Bolton is about as neo-con as it gets in foreign policy, and he apparently has some damning things to say. He also chose to say them in book form and not testify before Congress (which I still don’t get), and has rightfully incurred ire on that account.

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This is a very interesting look

Yeah. It’s always tough to predict anyways but who the hell knows with all the stuff going on that is simply unprecedented. I don’t buy into the no stock in polls at all though. If you and I were running I could be favored 53-47 or something in every state and a loss would be surprising but not shocking by any means. A model that gives someone 70% to win is still going to be “wrong” 30% of the time.

When you factor in limited and sometimes unreliable polling in battleground states (essentially all that’s important) the idea of not knowing exactly who will win the electoral vote isn’t uncommon. Clinton easily won the popular vote, but underperformed in battleground states.

If the economy is good Trump should have an easy victory in theory. The economy was good then “the China virus” happened and now it’s on the way back don’t mess with it should be a simple enough message to hammer home. But Biden won’t ever be as unpopular as Clinton was no matter what so that hurts him a bit. Biden’s best message is I’m not that guy which with someone like Trump may be close to all you need. Trumps best message is economy has been good don’t risk it. Historically I’ll stick with us liking two term presidents (modern history) and not fucking with the economy.

But no way would I say at this point I’d lay money on a landslide. I just don’t know where that evidence is unless we simply just say polling doesn’t matter at all which defies history. His approval rating sitting in the lower 40’s for most of his term wouldn’t make anyone think landslide. Down 8% nationally to Biden wouldn’t make me think landslide either. With the EC the approval rating and head to head matchup isn’t nearly as important, but if we’re talking landslide it certainly matters.

Me either. I found that really interesting to hear from on-the-ground campaign workers because there’s no way I’d say that myself. Polls always matter to some degree.

I did think it was a good point that they say people tell the pollsters lies or the opposite of what they really think. Frankly that’s what a lot of people do if they ever pick up the phone (I don’t with call screening now). Polling has always been a black magic affair, but it’s facing a lot of new methodology problems it didn’t used to. Or at least they’ve gotten more serious due to changing communication.

That’s actually what got me to read in the first place…there’s NO WAY it’s a landslide. I think that’s crazy talk.

Trump will bring the crazy and win. Democrats will bring the stupid and lose. I think Americans believe they can work with crazy but not with stupid. In other words, Trump says crazy things but in the end, it won’t really affect policy because smarter people can keep it in check. The stupid things Dems say have the very real possibility of becoming policy and the new normal.

What are the stupid policies that Biden is running on?

We’ll see if he campaigns on the new stupidity from the identity politics idiots.

I don’t know how you guys feel; but it seems like Biden is getting pushed more and more into a box.

While I still feel like this campaign is Trump’s to lose; it feels like Biden is facing a “no-win-scenario” imposed not by the Right, but the Left.

Thoughts?

This is a natural and expected progression of identity/grievance politics. I joke about a “big tent of terrible policy ideas”, but that’s kind of what the Democrats have always been. They get by because so much of it sounds great on the surface. Look at Biden’s website. He’s got a plan for everything, which should scare the crap out of anyone who’s ever been part of a government plan. They’ll say whatever sounds good to whoever they think will get them elected, completely changing the entire premise of who they are and what they stand for at the drop of a hat.

That’s the game they play, and it is too late to opt out now. They are now forever faced with the problem of drawing a line nobody can seem to pin down. How woke is too woke? Is the goal to remain progressive forever, or is there a progress milestone in mind that you don’t need to move past?

I don’t really think such a point exists. You won’t hear anything along the lines of “Okay guys, we’ve got our laws passed, the problem is fixed, time to look at cutting some taxes and getting rid of the government apparatus we no longer need because we’ve moved past the problem.”

The entire line of thinking that the Democratic party rests on top of is to compare real-world bad outcomes to utopia and suggest that voting for them will solve or improve it somehow. Then you can paint your opponent as uncaring because they oppose your big government solution. That’s been the playbook now forever.

Now they’re in the position of having to oppose what may be the most popular political party in America. Disagree with BLM at your own risk. Being called a “racist” can have real consequences. If there’s ever been fertile ground for a third party to sprout up in the USA, it is right now, and that would sink Biden’s campaign like a torpedo.

I think you are assuming that the 3rd party is center or left of center. I don’t think a right of center 3rd party would sink Biden.

I am not sure you even have to disagree with them anymore. I am starting to see people get called racists for posting stuff about their hobbies, when they should be posting about protesting and BLM. That is too far IMO. Luckily this is by far my most used social media (if we can call it that). I only have insta other than this, and have only one post from about a year ago. I probably risk getting called racist.

I’m saying if a 3rd party sprouts in time to be a force in this election, it will somehow be coalescing around BLM. There is no political force in the USA anything like them right now, nor has there ever been.

It is a whole new storm of social media, misinformation and emotion that preys on people’s desire to be a part of something big and important. To be righteous. That’s very powerful.

They better get on the ball pretty quickly. They only have half a year before the election.

They are.

How this popularity will impact the US presidential elections remains to be seen. My point is that Biden cannot ignore BLM and their new-found power that seems to be equal parts love and fear, depending who you ask.

This is very much a hot iron moment, someone will be striking somewhere.

BLM gives its money to the Democrats. Why would they want a third party that won’t win anything when they can buy off the DNC?

Interestingly, some thinkers from the ever shrinking sane left (Thomas Williams for example) have attributed the the woke hysteria to a hyperinflation of liberal arts majors in the last few decades. They’ve been brought up to expect something more than serving coffee and thus have a vested interest to turn the chess table over and start anew.

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I would argue it started with people who were brought up in an everyone gets a trophy environment. They see fair as everyone gets the same result and not everyone is on a level playing field. Then they go out in the real world and find out competition and judgement (you mean I can’t show up to work in pajamas?) exist.

While I don’t necessarily disagree with most of your post this seems like an odd criticism giving the opposition. Is having a plan or even talking about having a plan a bad thing? Why? I mean the current President ran on knowing more than generals and everyone else in the world. To this day he will tell you (on almost any subject) that he knows more than anyone. Press him for details? What a rude and horrible line of questioning. And your fearful that someone running for President has too many plans?

He stated that he would solve everything if you just believed him. Health care don’t worry about it. She’s happening for everyone cheap cost. Don’t need a plan I’ll will it into existence. Debt elimination it’s happening baby. Won’t touch social security or Medicare either. Don’t need a plan just believe me I’ll get it done.

I think taking aim at the specifics of plans is fair game. To take aim because one has a plan is the head scratcher for me. And I even said long ago that Democrats should not put forth plans. Follow the Trump model and don’t let people hammer you on specifics. Just say you’re for shit and it will happen.

Voters don’t care we made that obvious. Actually the more the better. Promise free shit and don’t even say you’ll raise taxes on the wealthy. Fuck that you’ll do all these and cut taxes on everyone. The problem with Dems right now is they have people talking about how they might fund things. A classic mistake when your opposition doesn’t worry about that in the slightest. Biden will get hammered because he will probably try to answer questions. Trump just wipes them away. It’s a genius strategy that previous politicians had no idea would work to the extent it has. But you have to have a candidate who is insistent on questions not mattering and you need supporters who don’t remotely care if they are answered. You need supporters who don’t think plans, thoughts, or words matter.

Is a website with a plan really worse than a website that says “I’ll fix our trade issues with China. Buy my merchandise from China right here!”

As for the latter part no disagreement. But again hard to think the opposition has much of a leg to stand on. Who’d have guessed that Republicans after bitching about Obamacare and the national debt would run someone who advocated for universal health care and dismissed the debt from even mattering? They called Obama a far leftist and Trump ran on some issues much farther to the left than Obama and he routed his far more conservative opponents.