It can’t be Trumpian if it is accurate. “Trumpian” requires horseshit, and there’s no horseshit in that post. Trump will win (some of) those counties, which are enormously uneducated and obese relative to suburban/urban New York, and he will lose the state of New York as a whole. It is literally true. So yes, it is “Trumpian” in terms of ungenerousness, but it’s also true, so.
People already think that. You can be a ‘fat mouth’ and still say something that makes sense and be accountable for what you say. Are we not supposed to believe what Trump says? If you are arguing that everything he says is not what he actually means, and with his policy positions are basically non existent, what do we have to go on?
I agree with you completely. Eight months is a long time. And in that time period I have no doubt that Hillary Clinton will suddenly become likeable, be viewed as honest and…oh wait no she won’t. This coming Presidential election like all others is about turnout. For some reason there are mass numbers of people who seem to love Trump…go figure. On the other hand the democrats have stuck Hillary in the faces of their party members and said “there she is vote for her”. At least with the republicans we had a wide array of choices, people enjoy choices. Furthermore, this is not a good year for Washington insiders. In addition to that the name “Clinton” is tarnished beyond repair.
If Joe Biden, Al Gore or even John Kerry threw their hats in the ring Hillary would be left with the 23% of women who identify as feminists and nothing more.
No, I don’t like Trump, I know exactly what he is and isn’t. I’m still holding out for a Rubio miracle. But, I honestly don’t think Hillary can beat anyone for the Presidency…at least not anyone who actually tries to win. How do you win with a candidate who the more people see her the less they like her?.
When it comes to the general election and people have a choice many will turn their backs on Hillary Clinton as they view her as a corrupt Washington insider and it would be a third term for the failed Barack Obama.
I will repeat what I have said before. If Marco Rubio were the nominee it would be a total landslide for the republicans. But even with big mouth Trump Hillary is going to have her hands full. The stooges on this site who fail to see Hillary’s deficits will have plenty of crow to eat in November.
By putting her against a candidate who people hate more.
Bingo.
Defeat from the jaws of victory.
That remains to be seen Drew. In addition to that while Trump may be hated his followers are far more loyal than Hillary’s. And as I said it’s about turnout.
Turnout is high, but that is not all for Trump. While he is winning with 35-40% (the average was 36% yesterday) of primary votes, how does that translate to the general? A loyal 30% of republicans gets you nowhere. He’s not at a majority, and there are plenty #stoptrump and #nevertrump initiatives to realize that he will not unite the party. If he is the nominee, he will get slaughtered. It won’t even be close.
Its the same nonsense where he says he “will win with Hispanics” because of Republican Hispanics in Nevada. Except for the tidbit where that is only a small portion of the Hispanic population in Nevada as most are democratic. 80% of Hispanics have an unfavorable view of him and 59% have a “very unfavorable” view. You’re the one who loves to talk about overcoming negative perception, in that same poll only 4% didn’t know him. How does he overcome that?
Edit: Another interesting fact about the turnout is two of the states where Trump got upset (Oklahoma and Alaska) you have to be a registered Republican to vote… if I may put my conspiracy theory hat on… any chance democrats are voting for him in open primary states because they know he’s so beatable? Wouldn’t surprise me.
Finally, Ben Carson is out.
Good for him. It was getting awkward/embarassing watching him in the debates, looking like the kid nobody wanted on their team, crying out that he was entitled to play in the game for participation reasons.
I liked listening to him, but he no longer belonged on the Presidential race stage.
Big fan of Peggy Noonan. To her point though, I have to ask, who gives a crap if the looney tunes portion of the Trump supporters leaves the GOP? And no I don’t think all Trump supporters are looney tunes.
Honestly, there was a point in this craziness where I thought to myself: self, Trump might not be so bad compared to Hillary who you totally cannot stand…; but then I came to my senses after watching and listening to the dude a lot more, and remembered how looney he’s always been.
Someone somewhere mentioned some kind of narcissistic disorder to describe Trump, and I think it’s spot on. Narcissist first, everything else to follow.
Under-reported:final RCP avgs had Trump +15 in VA (won by 3), +15 in VT (won by 2), +11 in OK (lost by 5), -9 in TX (lost by 17)
And to Drew1411’s point -four of the five Trump losses have been in states with closed primaries. Especially notable is the OK loss, which was supposed to be the big surprise loss.
You are right democrats are voting for him in open primaries. But not for the reason you suggest, they actually like him! He is a populist and is singing many tunes that they enjoy hearing. In other words, he is stealing Clinton’s supporters and that is one way he wins.
He is quite the divisive figure and that’s why I certainly am on the “anybody but Trump band wagon”. With that said, Hillary Clinton is the most polarizing figure on the democrat side. If you think she is going to rouse her base to a frosty lather --FORGET IT. She is actually getting beaten in some states by a 75 (he looks 80) year old socialist. In many of the primaries last night I noticed that she was not beating Trump with the raw vote. And that was with Trump running against four other candidates! The democrats are pushing a really unpopular horse named Hillary Clinton (even though she barks like a dog).
You do not have to sell me on Trump’s overbearing nonsense about how he says he is going to win with Hispanics etc. We know that’s a show. But what you might not be thinking of is that he just may turnout more of the white vote, both republicans and democrats, than you expect. Furthermore, in the states he won he won with every demographic! He won overwhelmingly with senior voters and they turnout regardless of the weather or any other major catastrophe. Unlike the 20 something’s who will stay home if they don’t get the exact person they want saying the exact things they want. As you recall they usually vote for democrats (Obama was the exception turnout wise).
Don’t think for a second that Hillary has a cake walk should Trump get the nomination. If it were that easy there would be no need for a general election just poll everyone right?
Finally, I think it will come down to who can drive up the other persons negatives more. And Hillary Clinton is ripe for the picking…as is Trump. But, Trump unlike Hillary does not follow the Marques of Queensbury rules. He will drag out every bimbo that Bill Clinton nailed and Hillary attacked for allegedly lying about her precious husband. It will be a side show of monumental proportions.
But, we are being premature. As for the delegate count the nominating process is far from over.
Trump has something just over 300, Cruz only trails him by 100 or so delegates and Rubio has around 120. Kasich, Bush and Carson also have delegates. Unless Trump enters the convention with 1237 delegates he will not walk out of that hall as the nominee I can assure of that. There will be deals cut and Trump will be ousted by those who with a combined delegate count over 1237.
Then again long before the convention he may implode, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one.
So there is plenty of race left. I am not fully believing Trump will pull this off. I know the country has fallen from where it once was. We proved it electing Obama twice, but I pray that we have not fallen so far that we elect either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Then tell me doctor what does Hillary Clinton suffer from?
What’s up with lusting to be President for 24 years?
Forget about her many scandals and lies…she is just as bat shit wacky as Trump…but in other ways.
Dude, what part of “totally cannot stand” did you not understand?
I have to thank Trump for turning me into a Megyn Kelly fan though. After the initial dustup, I thought Fox (i.e. Roger Ailes) was out of line, and really wanted to “hate” her. But after actually watching her show, I liked her, a lot, and her show imo is easily the most watchable of all these politicized news shows that are so popular these days.
I still think Ailes was out of line for being a news guy, but man was he good at poking Trump. If only Cruz or Rubio could hire Ailes and sic him on Trump, Trump would be taken apart and tied up into a pretzel forthwith.
I agree with you here, although I think your being silly in underestimating Hillary. Trump should not be underestimated in the general. The Clinton machine is already gearing up to battle Trump and they will take him seriously.
Everyone thought Trump was going to bust in the primary but he never did. Trump is already moderating his positions to be more appealing in the general. He’s also flipping democrats in places like Mass. Don’t be surprised if he can command a portion of the white working class democrat vote that helped Reagan in the 80s. Also lots of Bern supporters have a deep distrust of Hillary.
The GOP cannot afford to contract at the moment and really needs to be concentrating on expansion. The Trump movement is the GOP’s own fault and alienating Trump supporters would just compound the problem. Trump is getting support from across the conservative spectrum. No republican EVER has won the combination of states that Trump has won.
People are latching on to his movement, his message. He is a much better campaigner than his competition, but it’s more than being an entertainer with an effective communication strategy. What he’s doing is appealing to people who never get substantive acknowledgement from any other politician. This was something waiting to be exploited and Trump was the first to recognize the potential.
The typical Trump supporter isn’t any more dumb than anyone else. Most people don’t have much exposure to economics or political science and you have to really enjoy these topics to have a basic understanding of them if you weren’t exposed to them via higher education. There are a lot of pissed off people who have every right to be pissed off and Trump empathizes with them when no one else will.
If more politicians didn’t take their constituents for granted then Trump wouldn’t be in this position. Same thing with Bernie. People are sick of a system that is clearly corrupt and are more concerned with voting against that system than choosing the most grounded candidate. The fact that there is a “Sheldon Primary” is a disgrace to this country and Trump was the only GOP candidate that didn’t line up to lick his boots. He deserves to be commended for that.
To be clear - I am not a Trump supporter. As a non-white person I’m a bit alarmed how popular some of his xenophobic proclamations are, but frankly it’s not that surprising. He’s also a light weight re: policy but will likely prepare better for the general. What I find refreshing is that he concentrated on building an organic movement while his competition concentrated on courting the elites and their $$. It’s the same reason I have respect for Bernie. They’re chipping away at the stranglehold the elites have on this country.