[quote]squatbenchhench wrote:
It goes both ways.
Israel of course has undue influence on US policy, but only insofar as the US wants to/has to be entangled in the Middle East and the oil economy. Just as Saudi Arabia has undue influence on US foreign policy, because the US has to deal with them for oil etc.
But if, hypothetically speaking, enough accessible oil was discovered off the coast of Alaska to keep America’s Hummers running for the next century, Americans probably wouldn’t hear the words ‘Muslim’, ‘Israel’ or ‘global role’ ever again.
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I don’t agree with this widely held misconception and other similar misconceptions concerning our role in the Middle East in relation to our energy consumption.
First, America now produces more oil domestically than it imports and this trend will continue into the foreseeable future. America is already the 3rd largest oil producer in the world and I think we’re 5th in proven oil reserves.
Second, we import a lot more oil from Canada and Mexico than we do from the Middle East. This will increase if we begin to accept Canadian bitumen via the Keystone pipeline.
Third, America has the largest concentration of refinery capacity in the world. We can’t completely fill up our refineries with our own crude b/c of both the high amount of capacity we have, and also having refineries that are better equipped to deal with the characteristics of imported crude versus domestic crude. Expanding refinery infrastructure is extremely expensive and we haven’t built a major refinery since the 70s. So even if we produced enough domestic oil to satisfy consumption, we’d still be importing crude oil. One important distinction to note is that crude and refined petroleum products are separate entities. We can import crude oil, refine it, and then export the products. We can technically be importing crude oil while not consuming any of the refined products.
Fourth, the energy market, particularly crude oil, is based on global market dynamics. Hypothetically if we were able to produce all the oil and refined products we needed domestically, America would still have a major interest in preserving an efficient global market place for crude oil. We are not an isolated economy and even if we stopped importing all Saudi crude, Saudi still remains an important country to us because the global economy will still depend on their crude output.
Fifth, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries boost the American economy in several ways. These countries are incapable of self-reliance and don’t have the ability to support modern infrastructure and a modern economy without heavy influence from Western companies and workers. In addition, America sells these Arab countries incredible amounts of weapons. Even without importing their crude, our economy benefits immensely from these countries.
One other thing is that the overwhelming majority of crude oil is traded in US dollars, which is another benefit to our economy.
Conclusion: Even if we hypothetically had no need for Saudi Arabian crude oil, that would not diminish our role in the Middle East in the way you projected.
I agree that America’s relationship with Israel is partly driven by our desire to have a strong ally in a volatile region where a stable energy industry is paramount for the global economy. But this doesn’t mean that America’s support for Israel would diminish if America no longer needed to import Middle Eastern oil. We would still have incentive in preserving a stable Middle East.