The Dow's Climbing Higher...

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
41

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
It doesn’t take a genius to see that the general market must dominate most investments. Even gold was dragged down by the collapsing market in 2008. Zeb, you might find the best stock in the world but you CANNOT BEAT THE MARKET. Are you Warren Buffett? No? Then you’re going to get sheared.

You really think that you can beat a market that is selling for about 4.6 times book (only the dot.com bubble was higher), a PE of 20, and a dividend yield of 2.15? Its not me that’s calling your plan BS, its the history of the market.

Just like with lottery tix, you might buy some windmill company that get a gov’t contract and makes you a fortune. That’s just dumb luck.

So I wish you luck…you’ll need it. [/quote]

Putting aside the wisdom of longterm investing, which is defined as holding stock 10+ years (something I question), you can absolutely ‘beat the market’ if you have a modicum of business sense and know how to read prospectuses and evaluate companies. Not something everybody is versed in but you certainly don’t have to be Warren Buffet.

Quite simply, you should be able to beat the market average (which is just that, an AVERAGE) or hire a financial advisor. Otherwise, yes, maybe you shouldn’t be investing.

42

[quote]jsbrook wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
It doesn’t take a genius to see that the general market must dominate most investments. Even gold was dragged down by the collapsing market in 2008. Zeb, you might find the best stock in the world but you CANNOT BEAT THE MARKET. Are you Warren Buffett? No? Then you’re going to get sheared.

You really think that you can beat a market that is selling for about 4.6 times book (only the dot.com bubble was higher), a PE of 20, and a dividend yield of 2.15? Its not me that’s calling your plan BS, its the history of the market.

Just like with lottery tix, you might buy some windmill company that get a gov’t contract and makes you a fortune. That’s just dumb luck.

So I wish you luck…you’ll need it. [/quote]

Putting aside the wisdom of longterm investing, which is defined as holding stock 10+ years (something I question), you can absolutely ‘beat the market’ if you have a modicum of business sense and know how to read prospectuses and evaluate companies. Not something everybody is versed in but you certainly don’t have to be Warren Buffet.

Quite simply, you should be able to beat the market average (which is just that, an AVERAGE) or hire a financial advisor. Otherwise, yes, maybe you shouldn’t be investing. [/quote]

Point well taken. Buying stocks that are depressed (I bought a chunk of Eli Lilly because Obamacare pushed it way down) with high dividends can be rewarding. But my point is that this market is so overvalued that a very high percentage of stocks will be declining…and the average Joe is likely to be in that percentage.

If 80% of stocks are declining, there’s an 80% chance that your stocks will go down…Law of Large Numbers.

43

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]SkyzykS wrote:

So really, to what end? Buy Gold! Cause it ain’t gonna be worth a shit either, but at least it’s shiny!

[/quote]

Do you know how many Jews there are that have at least some amount of wealth in gold or diamonds?

Can you imagine why so many of them have that?
[/quote]

This statement is just all kinds of stupid…[/quote]

Allways assuming the worst of other people, how do you bear your existence ;-)…

44

[quote]kamui wrote:

[quote]Do you know how many Jews there are that have at least some amount of wealth in gold or diamonds?

Can you imagine why so many of them have that? [/quote]

because in situation of emergency you can always travel with gold and diamonds or/and conceal it ?

[/quote]

Thank God at least one cares to think before typing.

45

[quote]SkyzykS wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]SkyzykS wrote:

So really, to what end? Buy Gold! Cause it ain’t gonna be worth a shit either, but at least it’s shiny!

[/quote]

Do you know how many Jews there are that have at least some amount of wealth in gold or diamonds?

Can you imagine why so many of them have that?
[/quote]

Cause they like shiny stuff? I don’t know. You got me.( Well, that and they can both be bought in Israel for a hell of a lot less than in the U.S. One of my brothers loaded up on some very nice things last time he was there.)

Really though, if you adhere to the concept of this impending economic apocalypse, It DOESN’T MATTER what commodity you have your wealth tied up in, real or paper.

What are you going to measure the value of diamonds or gold in or against when dollars, diamonds, gold, or what ever else is worthless? Bear in mind, this is the economic apocalypse that all of the financial prognosticators are warning of. The dollar is worth nothing, and there are riots for food. People are living on what they can put in their mouths, not their pockets.

I’d stock up on fish hooks and ammo, cuz my fly rod and deer rifle are going to yield better dividends at the dinner table than all the gold in the Egyptian empires.

ex. You have a hand full of diamonds=100ct. I have matches and fire wood. I might let you sit by my fire for the hand full of diamonds, but you aren’t getting a stick or a match to light it for less than something of equivalent utility.

[/quote]

In case of a total breakdown of civilization we are all fucked anyway, but in case you need to move your cash fast and/or want to be save from your government getting it into its slimy, greedy hands, gold and diamonds are the shiznit.

46

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]SkyzykS wrote:

So really, to what end? Buy Gold! Cause it ain’t gonna be worth a shit either, but at least it’s shiny!

[/quote]

Do you know how many Jews there are that have at least some amount of wealth in gold or diamonds?

Can you imagine why so many of them have that?
[/quote]

Really? Seriously? Racial stereotyping?

Or do you have some sort of study of the investment habits of those who practice the Jewish faith?
[/quote]

Cultural stereotyping.

2000 years of progroms has finally created a people that know for a fact that IT, whatever IT happens to be can actually happen to them.

So they prepare.

Which means that they are already three steps ahead of the “it cant happen here” crowd.

47

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]SkyzykS wrote:

So really, to what end? Buy Gold! Cause it ain’t gonna be worth a shit either, but at least it’s shiny!

[/quote]

Do you know how many Jews there are that have at least some amount of wealth in gold or diamonds?

Can you imagine why so many of them have that?
[/quote]

This statement is just all kinds of stupid…[/quote]

Allways assuming the worst of other people, how do you bear your existence ;-)…
[/quote]

Surprisingly well,thank you.How about you,seeing as you’re the one that made the leap to psychic?

48

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]SkyzykS wrote:

So really, to what end? Buy Gold! Cause it ain’t gonna be worth a shit either, but at least it’s shiny!

[/quote]

Do you know how many Jews there are that have at least some amount of wealth in gold or diamonds?

Can you imagine why so many of them have that?
[/quote]

This statement is just all kinds of stupid…[/quote]

Allways assuming the worst of other people, how do you bear your existence ;-)…
[/quote]

Surprisingly well,thank you.How about you,seeing as you’re the one that made the leap to psychic?[/quote]

I am still trying to harness my budding supernatural powers.

49

Employment is the most important indicator.

50

[quote]pat wrote:
Employment is the most important indicator. [/quote]

Do you really count government employees, too?

Personal income is a better indicator.

My economy is doing just fine, thanks for asking.

:slight_smile:

51

[quote]John S. wrote:

[quote]Standard Donkey wrote:

I made 3,200 profit on my stock last week. I might sell it tommorrow and take the money, or I might hold it a little longer.

The topic is not “The Dow is climbing higher than it was in 1999” it’s “the Dow is climbing higher”. Point is, Zeb and I are making money by clicking our mouses a few times despite what you naysayers are saying.

I’ll take inflated money over no money any day.[/quote]

And why do you assume those who buy gold/silver don’t do this? Short term trading can be done in many different fields, when HH or I talk about stock markets we are usually going against the long term, not the short term investments like you are talking about.

I think we are probably both saying the same thing, just in different ways. I am simply saying keeping money in the market for a long time is just begging to get it lost.

I will say this about HH tho, he was warning about the last crash and people mocked him like they are doing here and he ended up with the last laugh on that one.[/quote]

Thanks, John!

52

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]SkyzykS wrote:

So really, to what end? Buy Gold! Cause it ain’t gonna be worth a shit either, but at least it’s shiny!

[/quote]

Do you know how many Jews there are that have at least some amount of wealth in gold or diamonds?

Can you imagine why so many of them have that?
[/quote]

Really? Seriously? Racial stereotyping?

Or do you have some sort of study of the investment habits of those who practice the Jewish faith?
[/quote]

Cultural stereotyping.

2000 years of progroms has finally created a people that know for a fact that IT, whatever IT happens to be can actually happen to them.

So they prepare.

Which means that they are already three steps ahead of the “it cant happen here” crowd.

[/quote]

If you think the Jews of the US and Western Europe think like the Jews who went through Eastern European pogroms then you need to spend more times around Jews. When they buy diamonds it is, in general, purely for social status. Just like everyone else.

Of course Austria might be short on Jews, you know, because of cultural stereotyping.

53

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]SkyzykS wrote:

So really, to what end? Buy Gold! Cause it ain’t gonna be worth a shit either, but at least it’s shiny!

[/quote]

Do you know how many Jews there are that have at least some amount of wealth in gold or diamonds?

Can you imagine why so many of them have that?
[/quote]

Really? Seriously? Racial stereotyping?

Or do you have some sort of study of the investment habits of those who practice the Jewish faith?
[/quote]

Cultural stereotyping.

2000 years of progroms has finally created a people that know for a fact that IT, whatever IT happens to be can actually happen to them.

So they prepare.

Which means that they are already three steps ahead of the “it cant happen here” crowd.

[/quote]

If you think the Jews of the US and Western Europe think like the Jews who went through Eastern European pogroms then you need to spend more times around Jews. When they buy diamonds it is, in general, purely for social status. Just like everyone else.

Of course Austria might be short on Jews, you know, because of cultural stereotyping.[/quote]

Oh noez!

You have caught it too!

54

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]SkyzykS wrote:

So really, to what end? Buy Gold! Cause it ain’t gonna be worth a shit either, but at least it’s shiny!

[/quote]

Do you know how many Jews there are that have at least some amount of wealth in gold or diamonds?

Can you imagine why so many of them have that?
[/quote]

Really? Seriously? Racial stereotyping?

Or do you have some sort of study of the investment habits of those who practice the Jewish faith?
[/quote]

Cultural stereotyping.

2000 years of progroms has finally created a people that know for a fact that IT, whatever IT happens to be can actually happen to them.

So they prepare.

Which means that they are already three steps ahead of the “it cant happen here” crowd.

[/quote]

If you think the Jews of the US and Western Europe think like the Jews who went through Eastern European pogroms then you need to spend more times around Jews. When they buy diamonds it is, in general, purely for social status. Just like everyone else.

Of course Austria might be short on Jews, you know, because of cultural stereotyping.[/quote]

Oh noez!

You have caught it too!

[/quote]

Nope, mine is based on facts.

Austria has roughly 8.3 million residents of whom less thant 10,000 are Jews. Before the Second World War that number was above 300,000.

You, on the other hand, have probably not based your opinions on any actual interaction with the people you are stereotyping based on demographics.

55

Precious metals are pushing all time highs, yet stock bulls are gloating over the “long term investments” that they recently sold with the market 30%+ from the peak.

What works during the greatest credit expansion in human history may not continue to work during its unwind.

Japan isnt a Mad Max wasteland, but Im sure any japanese who have been in bonds or precious metals for the past ~25 years arent complaining, even at shitty Japanese interest rates.

56

[quote]milktruck wrote:
Precious metals are pushing all time highs, yet stock bulls are gloating over the “long term investments” that they recently sold with the market 30%+ from the peak.

What works during the greatest credit expansion in human history may not continue to work during its unwind.

Japan isnt a Mad Max wasteland, but Im sure any japanese who have been in bonds or precious metals for the past ~25 years arent complaining, even at shitty Japanese interest rates. [/quote]

I also wonder how many of the 43 million Americans living in poverty (just saw this on the evening news) will buy stocks.

Twenty years from now, the stock market may be higher than it is now. I think watching it first drop to 6,000 and then to 1,000 is little more than I want. I’ll sell my $5000 per ounce gold then and buy in, when stock prices are one-tenth of what they are today.

Who knows? The stock I buy for two dollars and 50 cents per share might have been bought by Zeb for $25…fascinating!!!

57

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]milktruck wrote:
Precious metals are pushing all time highs, yet stock bulls are gloating over the “long term investments” that they recently sold with the market 30%+ from the peak.

What works during the greatest credit expansion in human history may not continue to work during its unwind.

Japan isnt a Mad Max wasteland, but Im sure any japanese who have been in bonds or precious metals for the past ~25 years arent complaining, even at shitty Japanese interest rates. [/quote]

I also wonder how many of the 43 million Americans living in poverty (just saw this on the evening news) will buy stocks.

Twenty years from now, the stock market may be higher than it is now. I think watching it first drop to 6,000 and then to 1,000 is little more than I want. I’ll sell my $5000 per ounce gold then and buy in, when stock prices are one-tenth of what they are today.

Who knows? The stock I buy for two dollars and 50 cents per share might have been bought by Zeb for $25…fascinating!!!
[/quote]

You never know. I bought a bunch at $2.20 per share that had been selling a year prior at $1200-$1500.

58

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]milktruck wrote:
Precious metals are pushing all time highs, yet stock bulls are gloating over the “long term investments” that they recently sold with the market 30%+ from the peak.

What works during the greatest credit expansion in human history may not continue to work during its unwind.

Japan isnt a Mad Max wasteland, but Im sure any japanese who have been in bonds or precious metals for the past ~25 years arent complaining, even at shitty Japanese interest rates. [/quote]

I also wonder how many of the 43 million Americans living in poverty (just saw this on the evening news) will buy stocks.

Twenty years from now, the stock market may be higher than it is now. I think watching it first drop to 6,000 and then to 1,000 is little more than I want. I’ll sell my $5000 per ounce gold then and buy in, when stock prices are one-tenth of what they are today.

Who knows? The stock I buy for two dollars and 50 cents per share might have been bought by Zeb for $25…fascinating!!!
[/quote]

Honestly though I think the return of the dividend to the market will correct alot of the investing errors of the last two decades. When Cisco annouced its dividend I was in shock.

The CEO has said for more than a decade that dividends are basically old methods of investing and not in style.

I believe that is where the returns are going to come from over the next 30 years.

59

[quote]SkyzykS wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]milktruck wrote:
Precious metals are pushing all time highs, yet stock bulls are gloating over the “long term investments” that they recently sold with the market 30%+ from the peak.

What works during the greatest credit expansion in human history may not continue to work during its unwind.

Japan isnt a Mad Max wasteland, but Im sure any japanese who have been in bonds or precious metals for the past ~25 years arent complaining, even at shitty Japanese interest rates. [/quote]

I also wonder how many of the 43 million Americans living in poverty (just saw this on the evening news) will buy stocks.

Twenty years from now, the stock market may be higher than it is now. I think watching it first drop to 6,000 and then to 1,000 is little more than I want. I’ll sell my $5000 per ounce gold then and buy in, when stock prices are one-tenth of what they are today.

Who knows? The stock I buy for two dollars and 50 cents per share might have been bought by Zeb for $25…fascinating!!!
[/quote]

You never know. I bought a bunch at $2.20 per share that had been selling a year prior at $1200-$1500.
[/quote]

Which stock exactly is that?

60

The DOW is at 10,794.26 as of 2:55 pm on 9/21/10. Is there hope or we just seeing the numbers we want to see in order to not cause mass panic? Also, has anyone seen the movie The Money Masters? I watched some of it before I left for work and it really pissed me off. If it’s messages are indeed true we need to do something drastic.