I also forgot to mention this side note- Steroids also don’t help Bonds get the calls that he gets from umpires lately. Because of the respect that Bonds gets, a pitcher pretty much HAS to groove one down the middle to get a called strike on Bonds. If you never paid attention before, watch some tapes of Bonds at-bats. He NEVER gets the “Eric Gregg called third strike on a ball 3 inches outside” calls.
This is my last post in this thread - I promise. Well it is unless I change my mind.
I agree with everyone that AAS has increased Bonds power. I don’t know that he would have hit 73 dingers if he was clean - maybe 50 or so , but not 73.
However, I don’t belives AAS helped Bonds before contact. It is only after he made contact with the ball that the juice helped him out. I am probably splitting hairs because his offensive production is really what he was looking to improve, if in fact he was on the juice.
So here’s some more fat for the fire - Bonds recieved pay increases of $9 million from 1998 to 2004. He doubled his pay in 6 years. Was he paid to juice? Had he not been juicing would he have made $18 mil last year? Would you juice for $9 million?
[quote]rainjack wrote:
My contention is that if AAS improved his ability to make contact, we would see his K% drop as dramatically as his slugging % and HR totals have increased over that same time period.
[/quote]
again, its not the AAS itself, it is the benefits gained through AAS use…which do allow a hitter a greater timeframe (albeit milliseconds) to see the pitch and react to it. how could that possibly not benefit a hitter when he is trying to make solid contact? how does that not directly affect the effectiveness of his natural hand-eye coordination?
and strikeout ratios are not an accurate measure of that anyway. major league pitchers are going to get you out no matter who you are. you think he is facing the pitching machine at the local fun park?
the bottom line is he makes more QUALITY contact, with GREATER success, with way LESS OPPORTUNITY to do so. that is a more accurate measure than just spitting out K/AB ratios. he has less at bats, and even fewer quality pitches to swing at, yet he makes more quality contact with greater success than any other time in his career.
[quote]mica617 wrote:
Bonds DID have the hand eye coordination when he was a skinny singles hitter early in his career. The juice made his “warning track power” into the blasts you see him hit today…[/quote]
Bonds was never a singles hitter, even during his skinny days. Based on the table Rainjack posted, during the first 5 years of his career, Bonds averaged just over 23 HRs with a .468 slugging %. Certainly not Ruthian, but hardly a singles hitter by any means.
Oops, my bad. The stat table I was referring to was posted by juice20jd. Giving credit where credit is due…
A little off topic, so humor me…
But is anyone else as happy to be talking about baseball as I am? Admittedly, I wish we were talking about something besides those who cheated MLB’s rules, but still… all the discussions about baseball stats and K% per 100 ABs… sniff… I am getting all choked up.
Kuz
[quote]Kuz wrote:
I mean, outside of Vlad Guerrero, what slugger do you have that much confidence in that he was not juicing?..
Kuz[/quote]
I agree about Vlad. And I’d thrown in Junior Griffey. However, all of Junior’s injuries in the last few years certainly has made me wonder about the cause…
The Big Hurt is adamant about being clean. I believe him.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
The Big Hurt is adamant about being clean. I believe him.[/quote]
But if he were to juice, think of how much bigger he would be. Scary thought…
I don’t understand this debate about steroids and Bonds’ strikeouts at all. He’s a great hitter, he’s a very selective hitter, no arguments there. But does it matter if steroids maybe did (or more likely, maybe didn’t) have a marginal impact on his batting average, OBP, or Ks? The important thing is he blew up, broke the home run record, gets walked more times than anyone ever (geez, he gets the occasional bases empty walk), all at least in some part because of steroid use.
[quote]Kuz wrote:
A little off topic, so humor me…
But is anyone else as happy to be talking about baseball as I am? Admittedly, I wish we were talking about something besides those who cheated MLB’s rules, but still… all the discussions about baseball stats and K% per 100 ABs… sniff… I am getting all choked up.
Kuz[/quote]
You’re dang right I am. I would really like to get into a fantasy league, but there is no one in this little widespot in the road that has the slightest interest. I tried joining a yahoo league last year, but it truly sucked as there were several scammers in my leauge.
Would anyone be interested in starting a T-Nation Fantasy Baseball League? Just curious.
The argument may be for naught as CNN just reported that Bonds may miss the entire 05 season due to a knee injury
[quote]rainjack wrote:
Kuz wrote:
A little off topic, so humor me…
But is anyone else as happy to be talking about baseball as I am? Admittedly, I wish we were talking about something besides those who cheated MLB’s rules, but still… all the discussions about baseball stats and K% per 100 ABs… sniff… I am getting all choked up.
Kuz
You’re dang right I am. I would really like to get into a fantasy league, but there is no one in this little widespot in the road that has the slightest interest. I tried joining a yahoo league last year, but it truly sucked as there were several scammers in my leauge.
Would anyone be interested in starting a T-Nation Fantasy Baseball League? Just curious.[/quote]
YES! Oh we need to absolutely do this. Just set up a free private league and on Yahoo! I do not have access to any fantasy sports stuff at work (it is all blocked, which stinks), but I have been looking for a 2nd league to do. A T-league would be ideal. I can set one up this afternoon when I get home from work (feeling like crap and will be leaving mid-afternoon).
Rainjack, if you are all geared up, you can do it now and PM me with the league info if you want. Hell, we have to be able to get 10 people to do this. Maybe set up a new posting so people will notice the subject line.
Who else is interested? I am thinking a traditional 5X5 league with a live draft on Yahoo.
Kuz
I’ve PM’ed T-Nation admin, and am waiting on permission to use some form of T-Nation in the league name. Assuming that they are okay with it, I set the league up and start a thread announcing the league.
Kuz - you may want to be at the ready, as I’ve never set up a league before. If you have yahoo messenger, PM me, so I might be able to get in touch with you in real time.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
Jay Sherman wrote:
Jesus christ! If you’re stronger you can swing faster. How fucking hard is that to understand?
Then why the fuck isn’t Arnold the Home Run King? Why hasn’t Ron Coleman won the Triple Fucking Crown? How many dingers has Dave Tate had? It ain’t all about the strength.
I’m waiting for just one of you know-it-all motherfuckers to come up with some goddamn proof that AAS increases hand-eye coordination.
[/quote]
I think you’re right rainjack, in that I don’t think it increases hand-eye coordination.
But if you take someone who had already demonstrated ample hand-eye coordination and increase the force he can apply with his swing, I think that will make a better hitter.
I was reading an article about Giambi’s stats in GQ (I think it was GQ anyway), and they talked about his improvement in a year and did an analysis – it was basically the difference between 12 or so pop-fly outs from the previous year that got some extra distance and turned into home runs.
BTW, count me in for Fantasy League – if you don’t want to use Yahoo, I also liked cbssportsline when my buddy set up a league there in the past. ESPN is supposedly good too.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
juice20jd wrote:
Call me crazy, but it might affect insignificant little things like bat speed, timing and the increased amount of available time to see the pitch (due to a quicker bat). those things ARE directly related to a players ability to “see the ball, hit the ball”, or hand-eye coordination.
interested to see a knowledgeable/logical rebuttle to that please.
Okay - I’ve referenced this earlier, but I’ll actually post the info here so you can actullay see the data that supports my contention that ‘see the ball - hit the ball’ seems to be affected very little, if at all, by AAS.
For clarity’s sake I am referring to the ability to make contact. To get the bat on the ball. I’m not talking about the added power that AAS is undeniably linked to, just Bonds’ ability to make contact.
The table below is the year followed by the number of strikeouts:
1986 102
1987 88
1988 82
1989 93
1990 83
1991 73
1992 69
1993 79
1994 43
1995 83
1996 76
1997 87
1998 92
1999 62
2000 77
2001 93
2002 47
2003 58
2004 41
Folks depending on pictoral evidence of juicing say that he got way bigger between the 1998 and 1999 seasons. It has only been in the last 3 seasons that you see a lower strikeout total, with 2003 not being that much of a decrease. He had the second highest S.O. total of his career in 2001.
My point is this, and I will not bother you experts with my petty gripes any further: If AAS truly aided his ability to make contact then would should have seen a staedy decrease in S.O.'s since 1999. That is not the case. He averages 75 K’s per season, and it has only been the last 3 that he has stayed under tha average - a full 3 seasons AFTER he started making noticable differences in his physique.
[/quote]
I don’t think this is quite true either. You have to look at the number of walks he’s gotten as well. He’s been pitched differently since he went hog-wild in the slugging % and HRs – I think that would particularly affect the last few years.
Oops, I see I was probably repeating earlier arguments. Oh well, my bad.
I still want to be in the fantasy league though.
I have received permission to use some form of T-Nation in the league name, as well as permission to advertise the league here on the forums.
If there is anyone with any experience setting up a fantasy leagu, please PM me, as I have never set one up before, and I really don’t want to screw the thing up before we even have a draft.
[quote]TeeVee69 wrote:
mica617 wrote:
Bonds DID have the hand eye coordination when he was a skinny singles hitter early in his career. The juice made his “warning track power” into the blasts you see him hit today…
Bonds was never a singles hitter, even during his skinny days. Based on the table Rainjack posted, during the first 5 years of his career, Bonds averaged just over 23 HRs with a .468 slugging %. Certainly not Ruthian, but hardly a singles hitter by any means.[/quote]
As I stated, he would have been a Hall of Famer WITHOUT juicing. The 23 HRs he was hitting then would put him in the category with monumental sluggers like Aaron Rowand of the Chicago White Sox (team inserted because most people wouldn’t know who he is), Jason Bay, Craig Biggio, Willy-Mo Pena… get the point? They are all GOOD players, but not BEST EVER caliber sluggers as Bonds gets credit for being.
Of course, I would juice for $9mil. It’s not against the rules for an engineer .