The Brexit Effect

It has been conceded by the current executive, I’m not sure what happens if the WA fails. I’m sure it will be paid, but it’s not massive over the period, regardless. Certainly less than the absurd uncosted 100bn floated by Juncker.

I’d watch the BBC 4 documentary on this. The Brexit Secretary and Chief negotiators seemed to have separate briefs and were never informed. Shambolic organization on the PM’s part.

A small price to pay to avoid the ECJ and direct effect. I’d also like to scrap the European arrest warrant, but apparently the cabinet haven’t even heard of it, so fat chance of that.

So basically 0 change. The UK government hasn’t controlled immigration meaningfully since the 70’s.

Always happy to disagree with you, friend. :grinning:

EDIT: There’s also quite a lot of domestic regulatory arbitrage available once you leave the EU. Not that I particularly favour no-deal (I’d prefer EFTA)

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Yeah, but you can’t get anything without ECJ jurisdiction, and especially not EFTA (see stair two).

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So basically for regulatory arbitrage and all other “advantages” you need a no deal Brexit.

So Boris it is then :slight_smile:

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Ah, but the key distinction is that direct effect of regulations and directives do not apply, the ECJ isn’t a court of last jurisdiction for domestic law in EFTA, which is a crucial difference.

Assuming the Tory party circular firing squad don’t all train their guns on him, that would appear to be the case.

However, only one Tory front runner has won in 50 years, so he’s battling against history.

Edit: that’s not to say that the ECJ has no role, but it has a significantly lessened domestic role.

Just my $0.02.

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I’m also sanguine about the economic class predicting doom, they couldn’t predict water below a boat.

The “new report” was written by the former UKIP spokesman, FWIW

BTW, you’ll love to see these two new best Brexit buddies…Steve and George.

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In fairness, the treasury projections have been out by miles. Half a million immediate predicted job losses that never materialized.

On an unrelated note, my prediction of Johnson’s Icarian fall is coming along nicely.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7fL8QeX4AAdYBZ?format=jpg&name=large

@Legalsteel and @loppar

Thoughts on the EU election results for us outsiders? How do you see the gains at the edges?

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The nutters are running the asylum, basically. Watermelons and every shade of Nationalist.

Salvini, La Pen, Farage and Orban are all going to be happy today.

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Huh? Farage won due to the Brexit shambles. The Socialists continues hemorrhaging voters to Greens. The far right and far left did make gains but the former were boosted mainly by the Brits and the French. Orban craftily framed the EU elections as a referendum against Brussels.

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I was referring to them in my “watermelon” comment. You are right that it’s probably not quite as simple as I glibly made out, but Lega won by 10%, and Fidesz at an astonishing 51%.

As I understand it, the Dutch have somewhat bucked the trend with Geert Wilders set to lose his seats.

Edit: Sinn Fein got a battering in Dublin, so that’s gratifying.

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@loppar correct me if I’m wrong, but if the UK leaves now, does that return the European mainstream to a majority or not?

Also, the Socialists (PSOE) in Spain did unexpectedly well.

Well, the mainstream will be still in charge, the only difference is that the centrist liberals and watermelons/greens will take place of Social Democrats in the “centrist” alliance. Much more meaningful that the grand “cordon sanitaire” coalition between the conservatives and social democrats.

Overall, more that 51 percent of EU voters cast their votes, which is excellent news.

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The UK had a 38% turnout, which is hardly surprising, and is about the same as normal.

Ireland was at 48% with a referendum and council elections on the same day, which is shocking, given that referendum days tend to be when the Irish actually turn out.

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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7klQ1VXYAAe4Ym?format=jpg&name=large

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So after Alessandra we’ve got another descendant of the Duce in the European Parliament - this time it’s the great grandson that’s peddling his fascist policies…

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Berlusconi too. Lock up your daughters, residents of Brussels and Strasbourg.

It’ll be the first staffing budget spent entirely on escorts.

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Moral issues aside, Silvio has an excellent taste in women. He knows how to enjoy life.

What do your cousins across the pond do? Bang pornstars well past their prime (Trump, Tiger Woods) or 50-something plastic gold diggers (Don Jr, Jeff Bezos…). Philistines.

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Fair point. It’s one part of his record that is free of blight.

How…?? I would have thought the name alone would have been poison

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I have no clue. Perhaps Mussolini isn’t quite so toxic a name among Italians?

I haven’t asked any of them, so that’s my operative assumption.