[quote]DBCooper wrote:
[quote]pat wrote:
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
[quote]pat wrote:
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
Cars are really nothing more than status symbols and for whatever reason…[/quote]
Nothing more than status symbols? Gee and all this time I though people used them from transportation.
Telsa is a status symbols for the lefty celebrities who cannot be seen in a prius. Otherwise they are transportation for people who do need to go very far and can afford to spend several hours between recharges.
The electric car fad will pass, just as it has done before. It’s inherent flaws are to great to be sustainable. They may be ok city cars, but if you live in Texas, or Nevada or Georgia where commutes tend to be long, they are not viable alternatives to a real car.
Hybrids will probably be around, but I figure their market will always be somewhat marginal. They are not achieving MPG milestones that haven’t been reached by conventional methods. In 1990 Honda came out with the CRX HF which got 50 MPG hwy, a lot of people reported exceeding that. It didn’t have 20 batteries and electric motors hooked up to a very complex drive train that would have to switch between conventional and electric, it was a small efficient motor hooked up to a high-geared tranny.
I had the CRX Si, it regularly got 36 MPG, in the '90’s with a mixture of city and highway driving.
There are many viable alternatives to the electric motor that are far more compelling and efficient. The key is to make create efficiency, not transfer the energy losses to a place you cannot see outside your bedroom window.
Ideas of using more combustible fuels, infusing current fuels with things like O2 and N2O, forced induction are all better ways of creating efficiency rather than transferring energy loss to a lossy power grid.
The only way they are going to be able to make electric cars a fully viable alternative is to have someway of generating electricity in short order. Waiting for the piece of shit to charge isn’t going to work long term. The day the industry is going to take a hit is when the batteries start to go bad and people have to pay $5000 dollars (and that’s cheap for litium-ion) to replace them. The what do you do with the high caustic battery contents? Stick them in a barrel and bury them under a mountain? Sure they can recycle the battery…shell, but the shit that stores and expels energy is just a toxic soup.
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It’s great to hear that you’re actively rooting for the failure of an American company that provides thousands of jobs and who knows how much money to shareholders here in this country, all because you don’t like electric cars. What a patriot you are.[/quote]
I don’t root for them to fail. Only their product. You cannot compel me to like electric cars under the banner of patriotism. If they want me to like them, then they need to make something I like. If they don’t care if I like them or not, then we’re both satisfied. I don’t like their products and they don’t care. I like lot’s of American cars. And the car I like the most is 100% made in America, if I had the cash, I’d have it in a second.
My next car will be an American car because they now make things I want were previously they did not. The market will decide on the fate of Tesla, not me. I damn sure won’t buy one.
The electric car is always going to be a marginal product as it always has been. It’s not a product for the masses. It’s inherent flaws will not allow it to be viable. Electric cars have created a new phenomenon called ‘range anxiety’. Because it takes so long charge, it’s not going to be a mainstream product, people rely on their cars to much for that.
I don’t see an advancement were stored power can be restored in minutes. Sure they will come up with fast charging methods, but it’s still quicker to fill up your tank with gas.[/quote]
What does its mass availability have to do with anything? There are all sorts of products that are not available to the masses which are still doing well. I would argue that the electric car has always been a marginal product at best in the past because there was virtually no market for one. Now there is a market, however small, and Tesla is dominating that market, as evidenced by the imminent demise of companies like Fisker while Tesla’s stock continues to explode.
You also assume that the current drawback to electric cars, range of drivability and battery capacity, will continue to be a problem. I think one of the beneficial byproducts of Tesla’s popularity is that more and more researchers, scientists, engineers, investors and so forth are realizing the huge untapped potential of longer-lived batteries, and will race to get into that market as fast as possible. It’s the holy grail of the future of energy independence for this country, along with expanded natural gas acquisitions and nuclear fusion power. It’s part of the trifecta of energy breakthroughs that could really change the economy of this country and the way we go about everyday things.
Think about it: if we could store enough energy in a battery for an electric car to drive even 1000 miles per charge, at an average speed of 75mph, that would RADICALLY alter the market for electric cars. Correspondingly, in the future that technology would naturally miniaturize to the point where we could use our phones for months without charging them, perhaps use batteries to power our homes, or certain appliances within it and so on. As society becomes more and more technology-centric with our iPhones and iPods and iPads and electric, driverless cars, electric jets (an electric plane just made a trip recently from California to Texas), electric trains (trains are STILL an extremely “green” mode of shipping) and so forth, longer-lived batteries will become a necessity that a smart entrepreneur is going to want to get in on the ground floor of. I think that Tesla could be a catalyst of sorts that sparks this revolution in energy usage and storage. I’m sure they are already working on new, safer ways to store energy in their batteries for longer and longer. A company that is smart enough to turn huge profits in such a short time in a market like the electric car market, while all of their competitors fail left and right, is surely smart enough to know that they need to do whatever it takes to realize this new technology.[/quote]
I don’t disagree that battery technology will improve. How much is debatable and the charging time is a problem that won’t improve significantly. No matter the capacity of the battery the charging of them still take hours and the larger the capacity of the battery the longer the charge. That’s an inherent flaw that won’t go away. The idea of instant charge sounds wonderful in theory, but the only way to make that work is to be able to mix chemicals that produce lots of energy. The problem with that is we’re back to square one, pollution.
No matter the capacity of the battery, it will always be less than the source of it’s charge. No matter the capability of the battery, the grid, or source of the charge can only pump a certain amount of wattage over a period of time. The only way to make them widely viable is an entire infrastructure overhaul, which is not cheap as well as the fact that doing so will mitigate the ‘green’ aspect of the car.
Tesla is doing well, for now. I don’t expect it to continue. They will level off and likely decline. It’s those batteries. The majority of the cost of the car is the batteries. Replacing lithium-ion is very expensive.
The biggest factor in making these type of vehicle viable for a large market is limited mostly by the laws of physics. Energy loss during the transfer of energy states is inevitable. There are many losses in the transfer of energy from the grid to the road. And that’s only half the equation.
And if said grid is powered by coal-fired plants (which is still the most popular type of power plant unfortunately. Thank Jimmy Carter for that), plugging in is not very green.
Powering an electrical devices with no mechanical moving parts is way different then powering electric motors that need to generate enough torque to move something heavy. It takes way more energy to power the latter.
Currently and for the foreseeable future, internal combustion is still the most efficient (by way of least energy loss) way to power an object as heavy as a car, even a light car.