[quote]MaximusB wrote:
[quote]DrSkeptix wrote:
[quote]borrek wrote:
[quote]DrSkeptix wrote:
[quote]borrek wrote:
[quote]pushharder wrote:
No philosophical concerns whatsoever about socialism, huh? The ends justify the means with you?[/quote]
I do not agree with you that this law spells a government takeover of private business.[/quote]
A reduction to the absurd follows.
The state of Michigan has 200 families: 100 Borrek families, all alike, and 100 Antiborrek families, all alike.
One by one, the Antiborreks sit at their abacuses, and figure out they can have more money for the year simply by paying a fine and then re-enrolling when one of them gets sick.
So the Michigan Insurance Company, the Blue Double-Cross, has had falling premium income, and suddenly rising expenses as the Antiborreks re-enroll. And employers figure out that the can end insurance, and pay out less than the difference in higher salaries. The Double-Crossing actuaries have no basis to predict this.
So MBDC orders a rate increase for the 100 Borrek families. Well, they figure-out this game, and drop out, and the spiral for insurance leads to de-capitalization. Or if there is a cap on premiums, the insurance company must leave the state. (And do not kid yourself, insurers have left a state rather than continue business in this fashion.)
Well, who will then manage the “insurance” business in the State of Michigan? Why, of course, our friend, the insurer-of last-resort, the Government.
I do not know if this scenario will play out, but the trip-wires are in place, set to snap at the next recession.[/quote]
Again, here we are with totally imaginary magnitudes. This is more fairy tale than parable…
Do you really genuinely believe that 50% of Americans will decide to go without insurance??[/quote]
Perhaps the term “reduction to the absurd” is foreign to you.
I offered the extreme example for the sake of clarity. When we speak of the margins of profitability in insurance, whether it is 2% or 18%, they are threatened directly by the unpredictable risk pool. If healthy families stop paying in, the costs born by the remaining families must rise, or insurance will not be written. So if enough people opt-out–and the law is jiggered to allow and encourage this–then insurance companies will not be able to provide service to the remainder. The government–“state supported exchange pools”–will need to be expanded, and supported from the public trough.
Clear now?[/quote]
This is what I am noticing here where I live. Healthy young people pay for sick elderly people (most of the time), and when you have the healthy people opt out, insurance companies increase their premiums to compensate. With this government bill, we will see more and more companies get out of the business altogether, making more and more people get on the government plan.
This is what all the pro government health care people don’t get, when the government is given so much power, they can be brutally evil with it, and in time we will see it get worse.
[/quote]
By now, I thought someone would have pointed to a flaw in my thinking. I will provide it myself.
Why, if private insurance is put at a disadvantage as I have described it, are the insurance companies so in favor of Obamacare?
Before the mandate takes effect, there will be a huge expansion in Medicaid, which burdens state government with unfunded mandates, and which does not touch the insurance industry. But, as “insurance exchanges” start-up, they will provide a new revenue stream which will go to (presumably) competing insurance companies. Presuming a pay-out ratio of .80 to .90, the insurance companies will make a pile of money very quickly.
This in itself mitigates the risk of the shrinking, sicker, risk pool of private insurance which I have posited. But wait! There is more! As the insurance exchanges fail, or as their risk rises, the government will need to provide capital. The insurance companies will have ample protection against risk, cushioned by federal tax dollars.
Great scenario, eh? Of course, I could be dead wrong, and the insurance companies will disappear, or merge, and there will be a lot of wailing coming from very tall glass buildings. But If I am close to being right, the insurance industry has secured more revenue streams, private and public, and mitigated some of the inherent risk, at the expense of taxpayers.