[quote]Schwarzfahrer wrote: @sentoguy and KMCNYC
I don’t mean to imply that I wouldn’t bet my money on Cain,
but:
I see far, far bigger chances for a spectacular first round KO by Alistair O. when he faces the Mexican-Amercian, not Dos Santos.
They way I see it, Dos Santos and Overeem will have a rather cautious first round. Santos trying with straights and backing away, while the Dutch converges steadily, with a slow rythm.
Cain V. will just march fearlessly ahead. He will eventually take O. down and secure dominant position & punish, securing win somewhere in the late 2nd round through a GnP TKO.
Still, I see a big chance for Overeem to score a devastating blow to the Velasquez’ chin.
He’s so open in each fight there’s a veritable window of opportunity for Overeem, as long as he won’t lose his rythm early on.
All in all I say Overeem has about a ~30% chance just because of that. That’s a very decent chance in my book and better then most guys could hope to attain.
Against DosSantos, he’s better off and should probably win for the aforementioned reasons.
But it will involve more bullying and softening Dos Santos up with bodyblows, knees and shoving.
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That’s fair. But, after watching his last fight with Werdum, I think he’d be just as hesitant against Velasquez, meaning that his chances of catching Cain on the chin with a big blow would be lessened. Plus, I think Velasquez has got just as fast (if not even faster) hands than Dos Santos and plenty of power in them. So, there’s a chance that he could KO Reem as well (unlike Werdum).
I hope he learns from that fight. Although it was pretty extreme with all the flopping.
The question is for me, if Cain V. remains to be absolutely reckless when going in.
His a bit like Fedor in that regard. Always pushing the pace, always pressing, never hesitating to rush forward- headfirst.
Overeem’s punching disposition is tailor made for this:
He leans a bit forward and his counterhooks are usually done with more upper body twist then hip rotation.
This way, alone through technique, Overeem will hit a LOT harder then Kongo, for instance, who intercepted Cain a few times with straight hands.
It’s all a bit theoretical, because even if Overeem defeats Silva and Barnett , it’ll be summer 2012 and lots of things could have happened. But he’s got a fair chance of winning that tournement and because of that a just claim as the No.1 contender.
[quote]Schwarzfahrer wrote:
I hope he learns from that fight. Although it was pretty extreme with all the flopping.
The question is for me, if Cain V. remains to be absolutely reckless when going in.
His a bit like Fedor in that regard. Always pushing the pace, always pressing, never hesitating to rush forward- headfirst.
Overeem’s punching disposition is tailor made for this:
He leans a bit forward and his counterhooks are usually done with more upper body twist then hip rotation.
This way, alone through technique, Overeem will hit a LOT harder then Kongo, for instance, who intercepted Cain a few times with straight hands.
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True, but Cain has seemed to improve measurably since his fight with Kongo. Not denying that Overeem could potentially catch him and KO him though.
I think that’s definitely an “if” at this point. But, it depends on which Overeem shows up to those fights.