Maybe The Science changed on all of those issues…
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Self-destruction and irrational tendencies were always strong forces in the Kremlin. Tzar Nicholas II started a war with Japan in 1904 (having developed delusional plans about annexing northern China and Korea) while facing domestic unrest, was comprehensively defeated and barely survived the First Russian Revolution.
Only a few years later, again, while sitting on a social powder keg and facing tottering control over the country they eagerly embraced WW1 as a chance to conquer Constantinople and reestablish the “Roman Empire”.
Delusion that is turning into spite. They’re a dying country and are upset that the Baltic countries and Poland are living much better than Russians themselves. So if they cannot offer a better life, they can offer Kalibr missiles.
Better to be feared than ridiculed.
Sounds reasonable, but the question becomes how much damage they can and will cause out of that spite. We’re flirting with Armageddon here. Tzar Nicholas II didn’t have nuclear weapons.
A lot. As I understand, the plan for Ukraine was to replicate what was done in the self-proclaimed “republics”, but this time on a massive scale.
It was assumed in the Kremlin that Ukraine would be taken over in a matter of days. Then, the economy would be dismantled and the population of 40 million would be reduced to near-starvation, with relief provided only for families of men of military age that join the Russian forces for a pittance (the rate was 100-150 USD in the “republics”) or those that actively cooperate with the new regime. If that fails, forced conscription is an option as is the case in the “republics”.
Therefore, recently conquered subject peoples from Ukraine would provide expendable cannon fodder for new wars of conquest, coupled with “racially inferior” (in Russian racist worldview) Central Asians, Siberians and Muslim Caucasians and some Russian white trash.
It’s a very 19th century idea, much like Indian sepoys of the British Raj or tirailleurs senegalais of the French Army.
Nothing like meaningless platitudes as a stand-in for pragmatism and meaningful action.
The continually take Ukrainian territory despite admirable resistence by the Ukrainian army. From a purely ‘victory in war’ perspective, victory is taking all or at least the most important parts of Ukraine.
He’s desperate. Desperate men do desperate shit. Of course he want’s Western assistance not just equipment. And it can surely lead to a WW3, though we won’t likely call it that, simply because it doesn’t look like we imagined it would.
My guess is “We must negotiate with Russia” serves 2 purposes, it pisses off the west and it buys him and his military time.
The only thing I trust is that there is a conflict in Ukraine with Russia and Russia is taking Ukrainian territory. The rest is just bluster, blather and histrionics.
If the Ukrainian’s are kicking Russia’s ass and Russia is “desperate” than no western involvement is necessary.as victory is at hand.
That’s why I often say, look at what “they” politicians, “leaders” and shit like that do, not what they say. They say they are kicking Russian ass, but Zelinsky is desperate, what does that tell you?
Which side is acting like they are winning? The side that is screaming or the side that is calm and quiet?
They are not refusing, they cannot get involved without violating a whole bunch of treatises and articles and other such non-sense. Too many in NATO want this war which I find disturbing, but it seems inevitable. Eventually Russia will make a mistake that justifies NATO action and then it’s on.
The problem is for us, is that all our manufacturing exists in Russia’s biggest ally China. If China cuts us off, we are going to see poverty here like we haven’t seen since the 1930’s. Nobody is doing anything about that. While we should be desperately trying to bring that shit back, instead.
Ukraine alone cannot satisfy Russia, he can just take Ukraine and have all he needs that they can provide. Russia doesn’t want or need to negotiate with Ukraine. He want’s the west to sweeten the pot and the west is doing everything but.
If they really cared about Ukrainian lives, they (NATO/ the West) would be trying to negotiate an end to this war as quickly as possible. You have to make deals with bad people for there to be peace. We’ve done that for decades, when we wanted peace.
I love it when people pretend to know what Putin is thinking or wanting. This Ukraine situation didn’t happen out of the ether. There has been a lot of shady, cross-eyed fucked up shit going on there, especially on the eastern border since at least 2010 and likely earlier than that. We instigated a coup in 2014. We supplied weapons to some real seriously bad people in Donetsk and Luhansk.
What made them bad? Many of them are actual, real neo-nazi’s. Not Trump voters, people like the Svoboda Party are the real deal. Racial purity and slavs must die, type shit.
So again, Ukraine isn’t merely manifest destiny for Russia and Russia was losing there. I said a while ago, the situation is complicated.
That doesn’t justify what Putin did, he should have taken the “L”. It does not help that the US was providing aid and military hardware to these people, though. And didn’t help that Ukraine is massively corrupt and a pipeline for western influence into Russia.
There was a lot of crooked shit going on in Ukraine for a long time, I know a decent amount because I have family near the region and they actually get news and information from that part of the world were we didn’t and don’t.
I don’t totally by the “Putin wants the good old days and that’s why he is doing this.” narrative completely. The Ukrainian situation is unique among the other situations in that region. And Poland won’t go quietly into that goodnight and it would involve NATO, fully and the war would be all out. That is and would be WW3, with MAD being on the table. That just doesn’t make sense even for an evil despot.
Don’t believe the hype. The situation is bad and dangerous enough without all the exaggerations and lies. If that were true, don’t you think Zelinsky would be telling the west, “Don’t worry about it guys, we got this. Keep sending missiles and we’ll kick their ass back to Moscow.” And if anything, the exaggerations and lies are making it worse not better. Giving people false hope they ought not have for something that is unlikely to happen can cost them their lives needlessly, especially in Ukraine.
The fact of the matter is that Ukraine cannot withstand this on their own. Without western intervention Ukraine will fall. It’s just math and physics. Ukraine being a bastion of corruption and fuckery for so long, does not exactly have a well trained, disciplined military. As long as we keep pumping in weapons, the Ukrainians can hold their own for a while, but they cannot win. And you have to wonder how long Russia and China will tolerate that, before they start to do something about it? I do anyway.
NATO has a ‘Red Line’ somewhere, we just don’t know what that is. I suspect they have no intention of allowing Ukraine to fall, just how far they are willing to let it go before they jump in is the question.
I would suggest watching troop movements and “training” exercises as much as is visible to us. That kind of tells you what the US and NATO are looking at. We deployed a bunch of military to Darwin, Australia for ‘training exercises’. That’s happening right now. Which doesn’t sound like a big deal, except for such a ‘training’ has never taken place and the size and scope is larger than anything prior to it. Why? I would have to think it’s because of Taiwan and the Chinese seriously taking Russia’s side. And we are doing similar things near the Russian border in several eastern block countries that are also unprecedented in how many NATO partners are involved. The west is getting prepared for something.
All I want is the truth, but lies and bloviations are all we get. Meanwhile the world prepares for war.
That’s some bleak shit right there. It’s not turning out that way though, Russia will be fighting a western funded insurgency in Ukraine for years. If the reported losses are anything to go by, that’s not sustainable for Russia and she will eventually lose, but Ukraine will be completely destroyed in the process. So at what point does Putin say fuck it, let’s escalate and take the Baltics too…
So either the regime gets toppled in Russia because the war is going badly (what other political platform than militant nationalism is there though), or Putin stays in power and escalates to attacking a NATO country. Will NATO really defend Lithuania with the same conviction as it would one of the original NATO members? I have my doubts. Why aren’t there troops pouring into the Baltics as we speak? I mean like 50 000 of them.
No it won’t. If they manage to capture large parts of the country (which I highly doubt) they’ll genocide the fuck out of everyone because they operate under different rules of engagement.
This idiotic US policy is the continuation of Obama’s idiotic stance about the supposed Syrian “quagmire” for Russia. This underscores the Administration’s timid approach to Russia - it was expecting Ukraine to fall quickly and that Russia was supposed to “exhaust” itself fighting an insurgency, thereby saving other countries.
You’re not fighting an insurgency if you gas everyone.
I have a hard time imagining the rest of Europe standing idly by while Russia wipes out millions of people, if that’s what you think they will do. Russian nukes or no Russian nukes, I have a really hard time seeing even the timid Europeans sitting that one out.
EDIT: WWDCD? (What Would Dick Cheney Do?)
If you think the US policy is as you say it is, why do you not think Bidens statements prior to invasion was a deliberate attempt to make Putin take the bait and invade? He acted very weak, like we would just slap a few more sanctions on him and stay out of it.
Thoughts? Accurate or no? It seems to be a grossly oversimplicated version of what happened IMO
Video is about 2 minutes long
They’ve already killed about a quarter to fifth of the civilian population of Mariupol, a city of almost 450k inhabitants. What makes you think they would stop on their own?
Did I say they will stop on their own?
Who’s gonna stop them except the BCU (Ukrainian Armed Forces)? And maybe Poles…
Chemical weapons used and millions dead might be enough to make European nato countries decided they can’t stand idly by any more. Poland, maybe Finland could get it started and others can pile on. At some point the shame of just standing by might be too much to bear.
Mmmhhh…Sounds too good to be true, what’s the catch?
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These newly recruited geniuses will probably be used like old Shtrafbats back in the day. Cannon fodder sent to identify Ukrainian firing positions with their corpses. If a honest to good promise of a thousand bucks (decreasing, as ruble is depreciating) in exchange for a fiery death in a metal box is your cup of tea, of course…
Yeah.
Me too.
As a business model, it’s not bad at all. Can’t collect if you’re dead…
“Putin is a genius”, or so I’ve heard.
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By the way, what’s your source for that number of civilian casualties in Mariupol? That’s an extraordinary claim.
Mayor of Mariupol.
Edit: Pretty reasonable analysis from a mass murdering fascist responsible for (among many, many other things) shooting down the MH17.
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I made a little less than that per week to weld inside the hoppers of barges, so at least they didnt waste their time learning to weld.
I guess it Is what it is.
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