[quote]Mufasa wrote:
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
[quote]jnd wrote:
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
[quote]therajraj wrote:
Does anyone actually think Mittens is going to beat this man?
Polls be damned I can’t see Obama losing[/quote]
I seriously do see him “not winning”, raj.
While there are posters on this site whose opinions I highly respect; in this case…I
don’t agree with them as to the power of the incumbency and “it’s not Romney’s to lose”.
Conservatives have shown over and over that Romney is far from their first choice to face the President, even being rather lukewarm about him at the Convention. But their hate and dislike of the President runs much deeper. So deep, that I predict record numbers that vote and push Romney over the top.
The only thing that could possibly alter the above scenario is that the Presidential election is not a popular vote, but one based on the Electoral College. Those numbers have to “add up” to win…and in that case the President has a chance…but it is a tricky thing to try to predict the direction of the Electoral College.
So…I’ll go on record (again) as saying:
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This is an election for Romney, (even with lukewarm “Not Obama” support), to lose.
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I think that Romney will win.
Note:
1)Things can really change over the next few weeks.
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The Debates can be a “game changer” AND
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I predicted McCain/Palin to win…so I’m not so great at these predictions!
Mufasa
[/quote]
I will go on record to say that Obama will win. He has not trailed at any point and there is nothing to suggest that he will all of the sudden sink below Romney.
Also- the debates do not matter. The data on their overall impact suggests that they have almost 0 effect on the outcomes. And before Zeb starts spreading his lies about Reagan coming from behind after the debates with Carter, let me point out that the polling data do not support his fictional account of that election cycle.
jnd[/quote]
Fair enough, jnd.
More people are seeming to suggest that with this election so close and tight, turnout will be essential to both candidates.
While the Obama supporters (for me) are hard to guage…the “Not Obama” vote is angry, motivated…and ready to vote.
I’ll go WAY out on a limb with this one…the election will not be as close as some predict, in favor of Romney.
We’ll see! (It wouldn’t be the first time I would have to eat crow!)
Mufasa[/quote]
I just think that we’ll see a “disconnect” between the pre-election Polls and the Election itself.
Mufasa[/quote]
I doubt that, polling is far to sophisticated today to be that far off. As I have proven in my link above Reagan turned it around after his first debate with Carter so it can happen.
The only way Romney wins this race is to out class Obama in that first debate. That way the people get to see this first hand without the liberal media filter. I am not saying that this will happen but it is possible.
Challengers always want to debate the incumbent as it puts them on the same stage, podium to podium and they can look as Presidential as the sitting President. If played correctly and Romney does four things he can walk away with a very favorable opinion by the masses. This may help him over the hump in the final days.
1- Compassion, we all know that he is a great business man and very successful. But women want to see more compassion from someone before they vote for him. So he needs to talk about children, single mom’s etc. Mostly fluff…but essential.
2- Wit, everyone likes humor and often the man who scores with the best one liner is considered the winner. Shallow? Hey…I’m just stating what’s worked in the past.
3- Keep the pressure on Obama. So far Obama has had everything his way when it comes to the campaign. He got to call Romney a liar, a tax cheat and one of his super PAC’s went so far as to call him a murderer. Well, the buck stops at that first debate if Romney is smart. Romney needs to get tough with the media’s love God. If he puts Obama’s back to the wall on some of the disinformation that has been put out there he’ll go a long way in pointing out the slime that is Obama’s entire campaign.
4- He needs to call out Obama on the current economy. Obama has been saying that he needs another four years to get the job done. Romney needs to talk about the job Obama has already done over the past four years. This is not candidate Obama it is President Obama he has a record and it’s a very poor one. In addition to that he can then offer up his own economic plan which must sound feasible to the American public. And part of that plan is lowering taxes for the middle class. This will score big if presented properly.