More and more pundits are predicting that this Presidential Election could be as close as 3 Million Votes (Nationwide; States can certainly turn on much smaller margins).
I’ll give my thoughts; and hopefully the rest of the Forum can weigh in.
I don’t think that the election will be as close as predicted…and Romney Wins. My thoughts:
While the President leads with some key demographics…three of those (Blacks, Hispanics and the Young) are not nearly as enthusiastic as in 2008; with the young being a Demographic that will take their face out of an iPhone screen long enough to Vote IF the candidate can really excite and/or motivate them.
I think the President is hated MUCH more than Romney is liked…in fact, Romney’s “support” by Conservatives sometimes appears to rise just slightly above the proverbial “wet noodle”.
But BOY do they hate the President. And this is among demographics that WILL get out and vote.
The TeaPublicans have gotten smarter. They realize that they most likely lost the Senate for the GOP…and they also realize that keeping a lower public profile while concentrating efforts on key races is the way to go. (ala 2010, without the Senate Mistakes).
IMO, they will be out in record numbers in order to unseat the President and to gain full control of the House and Senate. (Note: The Senate will be tough; but from my TeaPublican friends that I know; they learned from 2010).
The President (IMO) “wins” the debates; but not enough to sway enough of the undecided/Independents.
It’s the Economy, Stupid.
Net result?
Either candidate can make a HUGE misstep…Romney can make a “WTF”??? Vice-Presidential Choice (which I doubt; he’s been WAY too smart up to this point)…ANYTHING can happen in four months…BUT…
Romney wins.
The Floor is now open!
(Note: I will be periodically “bumping up” this thread until the elections in order to see how far off we all really end up being in our predictions. Should be interesting).
Mufasa
(PS: The picture I posted is meant to add further to the discussion. It wasn’t a mistake!)
I think Romney is right to be fairly quiet and non-committal at this point. He doesn’t want to peak too early (as McCain sort of did). And there is no reason to - Obama continues to make misstep after misstep, and the news has been horrible for him. No reason for Romney to change the subject. Of course, Romney will have to start defining himself soon - or Obama will define Romney - but at this point, with continued bad news for the president, the attacks on Romney are falling fairly flat and plays right into a Romney counter of “look, if I were in his position, I’d want to talk about anything other than my performance as well.”
I like Condi, but I’m not convinced she needs to be VP. The GOP needs to get away from the Bush years, and bringing Condi on doesn’t help with that much. Also, Condi is not a staunch pro-lifer, and that would create consternation.
Obama has been saying some amazing things, and they aren’t good. First, he is clearly trying to campaign as a clientele/interest group candidate - Romney gets to easily play himself up as the opposite…the man not for Balkanized groups, but a broad, unified America. That’s a meatball across the plate. Second, Obama is making some very anti-business comments of late in a time when people are pretty darn pro-business these days because business are the entities that hire people and reduce the unemployment rate.
Yes, Musafa - “it’s the economy, stupid” - and Obama is fumbling in a way that is surprsing everyone, including Democrats I know who have a stake in such things.
Obama will have to answer for the “imperial presidency” he has attempted to push. In addition to the political ramifications, optically it makes him look completely out of touch with the American people - i.e., the American people “shellacked” Obama in 2010 by throwing out his teammates and enablers, and since then, Obama has simply decided to do everything (as much as he can) by fiat. This is fertile ground for Romney.
For the first time in the 20 some odd years I’ve been following politics. And no matter what I read or hear. I simply am unable to form a strong view on who I think is going to win this election.
Obama has a problem this election that didn’t plague him in the last. People now know who and what he is. The far left special interests, regardless of their politics, are able to mobilize voters and deceive some more moderate ones along the way into voting with them. When enthusiastic about a candidate they are highly motivated. When not… not.
Obama wisely knows he has lost much of the middle he carried last time AND that the far left now sees him as not left ENOUGH. If they don’t show up in November he is in real trouble. He is gambling that a renewed commitment to them will retain and renew theirs to him. They may feel they’ll get more out of him this time without his having to worry about reelection, but with a republican house how much does that mean? I do think this explains his rhetoric lately though.
The only way the debates would have meant anything more than the usual nothing would have been if Gingrich were the candidate who would have mercilessly mutilated and dismembered Obama on international television. I don’t think he necessarily beats Romney anyway as much I dislike Romney. I’ve got stuff to do. No more time.
The odds on my sports betting site here in Europe are currently 1.45 for Obama and 2.65 for Romney. So if you think Romney is the huge favorite to win that should be easy money right?
Unfortunately, google tells me that the polls in only 4 states are to close to call, and that Romney would still lose even if he wins every one of them. I mean Obama is leading freakin Colorado and even Virginia is tied? Lets face it, if nothing drastic happens we’ll see some right-wing weeping in November…
Unfortunately, google tells me that the polls in only 4 states are to close to call, and that Romney would still lose even if he wins every one of them. I mean Obama is leading freakin Colorado and even Virginia is tied? Lets face it, if nothing drastic happens we’ll see some right-wing weeping in November…[/quote]
You appear to have it backwards - Colorado and Virginia were states that Obama won in 2008. The trend is cutting against Obama - he is an incumbent in danger of losing states he won.
There is much to occur between now and the election. What’s interesting is that the Obama campaign has effectively taken its shot now, spending bazillions in battleground states trying with attack ads. Polling has demonstrated that the ads have not been effective.
Meanwhile, Romney is content to sit on his (ever-growing) pile of money as Obama blows through his without much effect. Romney is basically tied with Obama in the polls, is watching money roll into his campaign, and gets to watch his opponent flail about with such attacks as the “Romney is a felon” nonsense.
Romeny can still screw it up, and it isn’t his election to win. But Romney is exactly where he wants to be - rested, campaign-rich, and ready to unload as we get close to the election.
If Romney can pull his head out of his ass and actually bring up the subjects that he indefinitely needs to, then he can definitely win. I’ll make this perfectly clear:
THIS IS ROMNEY’S ELECTION TO LOSE.
It’s all up to him. Obama and the Dems have given him plenty of material to work with and he’s not taking the bait.
I don’t like either option very much. You guys are largely fucked either way. If Obama gets in, I’m predicting a straight nose-dive into oblivion. If Romney get’s in… who the hell really knows? With a republican house he can pretty much do what he wants, but he seems like the kind of guy who’s too “middle of the road” to do much of anything. He strikes me as the kind of guy who would make a “good” president if things where already running smoothly, that is, he could keep the machine oiled and that’s about it.
Given the situation, I think Romney will win and things will continue degrading as they would if things are left on the course they are now without Obama popping in every now and again to make sure all the support beams have been thoroughly kicked out.
[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:<<< THIS IS ROMNEY’S ELECTION TO LOSE. >>>[/quote]No offense, but this is a simplistic and naive statement. As of right now this election could go either way, but as has been noted, 4 months is an eternity in American politics.
Barring some major misstep; THIS ELECTION IS FOR ROMNEY TO LOSE.
Some more thoughts.
The Gay/Lesbian/Transgender vote is VERY interesting. First; there has been a trend toward the GOP among those voters who identify themselves as Gay/Lesbian/Transgender.
The Gay/Lesbian/Trangender Vote is FAR from being monolithic, as some would have you believe; either in party affiliation OR issues (e.g. Gay Marraige). In other words; you would think that the only concern the Gay community has IS Gay Marraige, yet the economy ranks number one in the Gay Community in choosing the next President.
The net result is that the “Gay” Vote’s impact is not nearly so clear.
Romney (again).
Someone alluded to this, but it’s true; he HAS to “stay on task” and not get too far off on tangents. When he does; or he tries humor; he most often ends up sticking his foot in his mouth. He has also been smart in not getting himself tied down to specifics.
Mufasa, did you say that Obama will beat Romney in the debates? Did you really say that? Romney is battle ready after umpteen republican debates. He’s been pushed by Gingrich, Santorum and the others and has trained himself to think on his feet. Obama on the other hand hasn’t debated since Hillary Clinton got the best of him four years ago. He’s slow on his feet he doesn’t seem to think very quickly without a tele-prompter. Oh sure he can cozy up on the couch with George Snufellupagus and the rest of the liberal media lap dogs, and answer a few soft ball questions. But when push comes to shove he’s a train wreck thinking on his feet. I am banking on Romney getting the better of him in all of (3 perhaps?) of their debates. This is the only way he jumps past a liberal media bias and talks directly to the American people.
As for voter demographics if Romney is smart he’ll choose Rubio, or perhaps a minority woman. This will cause the Latino/Hispanic vote to tilt Romney’s way. It will also put Florida in the bag for the GOP something they must have to win the Presidency.
The under 25 age group will go for Obama but that is not all that important as they will turn out in smaller numbers than last time. It will be more like an average election where about 30% show up on a good day.
Only one group concerns me at this point and that is unmarried women. Obama leads in women by a wide margin for obvious reasons (the want to be taken care of by big brother’s hand-outs). If Romney doesn’t make inroads with women he loses. Thus my point about picking a minority woman he can kill two birds with one stone. But Rubio could be enough to win.
As for the gay vote it’s not important. About 1% of the population actually defines themselves as “gay.” And they don’t vote on the gay issue as much as people think. The economy cuts across every demographic like a hot knife through butter.
Right now Obama is in the lead and if Romney doesn’t get off the defense (Bain Capital etc.) and start attacking Obama for disastrous Presidency he loses!
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
The net result is that the “Gay” Vote’s impact is not nearly so clear.
Romney (again).
[/quote]
He was governor in Mass when we passed gay marriage… So I cna’t see why they won’t vote for him. He gives the people what they want, if enough want it.
He is a question:
If Romney came out tomorrow and said: “The healthcare I passed in Mass failed, highest costs in the nation. We thought it was a great plan, turns out we were wrong, I’ve learned from my mistake, we need to stop Obamacare before it fails nation wide”
Would that hurt him, or help him in elimating the “flip-flop” tag?
If Romney came out tomorrow and said: “The healthcare I passed in Mass failed, highest costs in the nation. We thought it was a great plan, turns out we were wrong, I’ve learned from my mistake, we need to stop Obamacare before it fails nation wide”
Would that hurt him, or help him in elimating the “flip-flop” tag?[/quote]
I think on balance it would help him, but it is dependent on how he says it. He needs to spend a good amount of time still explaining why RomneyCare and ObamaCare are different, and why some of those difference account for ObamaCare being bad - the distinctions might get lost somewhat in the wash, but I don’t think Romney can flat out just reverse himself. That wouldn’t be helpful.
One thing is helpful - if Romney comes out and says, “look I’ve changed my position based on experience,” there is only so much the Obama campaign can make of that since Obama himself famously rejected mandate-style health care during his 2008 campaign.
Romney has had months (years?) to prepare for this issue, and I think he’ll sound decent when the time comes.
As for voter demographics if Romney is smart he’ll choose Rubio, or perhaps a minority woman. This will cause the Latino/Hispanic vote to tilt Romney’s way. It will also put Florida in the bag for the GOP something they must have to win the Presidency.
[/quote]
I agree with you except for this…there is no way that La Raza will ever vote against Obama…his administration has sued to stop enforcement of federal immigration laws, to prevent states from requiring I.D. to vote, and for the closing of 13 boarder control offices on the Texas border.
Why would they bite the hand that gives them everything because of a Cuban?
[quote]ZEB wrote:<<< Mufasa, did you say that Obama will beat Romney in the debates? >>>[/quote]The teleprompter in chief is not that great unscripted.
As for voter demographics if Romney is smart he’ll choose Rubio, or perhaps a minority woman. This will cause the Latino/Hispanic vote to tilt Romney’s way. It will also put Florida in the bag for the GOP something they must have to win the Presidency.
[/quote]
I agree with you except for this…there is no way that La Raza will ever vote against Obama…his administration has sued to stop enforcement of federal immigration laws, to prevent states from requiring I.D. to vote, and for the closing of 13 boarder control offices on the Texas border.
Why would they bite the hand that gives them everything because of a Cuban?[/quote]Every Hispanic is not La Raza though.
As for voter demographics if Romney is smart he’ll choose Rubio, or perhaps a minority woman. This will cause the Latino/Hispanic vote to tilt Romney’s way. It will also put Florida in the bag for the GOP something they must have to win the Presidency.
[/quote]
I agree with you except for this…there is no way that La Raza will ever vote against Obama…his administration has sued to stop enforcement of federal immigration laws, to prevent states from requiring I.D. to vote, and for the closing of 13 boarder control offices on the Texas border.
Why would they bite the hand that gives them everything because of a Cuban?[/quote]Every Hispanic is not La Raza though.
[/quote]
Fair enough…just like every Black American is not a member of the NAACP…but it tends to be an accurate representation of the voting block.
Why would they vote for somebody (Romney) who wants to stop letting their people in the country illegally and cut off their money train?
As for voter demographics if Romney is smart he’ll choose Rubio, or perhaps a minority woman. This will cause the Latino/Hispanic vote to tilt Romney’s way. It will also put Florida in the bag for the GOP something they must have to win the Presidency.
[/quote]
I agree with you except for this…there is no way that La Raza will ever vote against Obama…his administration has sued to stop enforcement of federal immigration laws, to prevent states from requiring I.D. to vote, and for the closing of 13 boarder control offices on the Texas border.
Why would they bite the hand that gives them everything because of a Cuban?[/quote]
Sometimes just cutting into a demographic and winning your share is enough. If he picks someone like Tim Pawlenty that tells me that they (the Romney team) think they have it won and the VP candidate could only hurt him so they play it safe with Pawlenty (or someone like him).But I think they’re wrong Obama has already shown that he’s using Chicago style dirty politics to win (Accusing Romney of crimes, Bain Capital nonsense etc.) And it’s only going to get nastier as the weeks wind down. Romney needs a really good VP pick to win this race and Pawlenty is NOT it.
As I said if he picks a conservative female who can actually look and sound Presidential he wins. With that said it might be too much of a risky move as that female could very well end up sounding like Sarah Palin. Granted the liberal media destroyed her, but she really was not ready for prime time.
With that said I predict he will go with a male and that male with be Marco Rubio.
I’ll assure you guys that the Romney Campaign is not underestimating the President’s ability like Conservative Talk Radio, BLOGGERS…and Conservative Bodybuilding Forums.
He is intelligent; he can debate and speak without a Teleprompter…and he now has the experience of the ONLY job that can even remotely prepare someone for being President…the Presidency itself.
So yes; I do feel that he can “win” the debates. However; like I said earlier, I just don’t see the debates making much of a difference.
And talk about a true “Game Changer”? That could really be Condi Rice. She has said, however, that she is more of a “policy” person than a campaigner.
