Pres Debate: 10/16/2012

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]MaximusB wrote:
Today’s Gallup has Romney up 51-45.[/quote]

Aye. There’s a threat of a Romney break away. Obama is in real danger of being the victim of a late in the game bandwagon which isn’t going his way. The question is, does last night’s debate play a factor? I just don’t think so. I don’t think Obama ran away with as his supporters like to think.

The snap shot polls showed a reasonably tight judgment. Sure, they favored Obama on the main, who won the debate. But it wasn’t even remotely a butt-kicking, going by those snap polls. And that’s with a major Romney fumble. And on the issues, while Romney might have come up short on the main, he did damn well according to the same polls.

The question is, how accurately will the snap polls reflect the public at large. If they do, I think Obama is in serious trouble. He needed to not only win a debate more decisively, but he really needed to win the issues. We shall see.
[/quote]

I think Obama fired up his base, which was fading, but did he get swing and undecided voters, who knows.

The Left is painting this as an Obama ass-whoopin’, but for that to have happened Mitt would have needed to tank, and he didn’t. The Obama win is not analogous to the Romney win of the first debate. It probably slowed the Romney momentum a bit.

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]MaximusB wrote:
Today’s Gallup has Romney up 51-45.[/quote]

Aye. There’s a threat of a Romney break away. Obama is in real danger of being the victim of a late in the game bandwagon which isn’t going his way. The question is, does last night’s debate play a factor? I just don’t think so. I don’t think Obama ran away with as his supporters like to think.

The snap shot polls showed a reasonably tight judgment. Sure, they favored Obama on the main, who won the debate. But it wasn’t even remotely a butt-kicking, going by those snap polls. And that’s with a major Romney fumble. And on the issues, while Romney might have come up short on the main, he did damn well according to the same polls.

The question is, how accurately will the snap polls reflect the public at large. If they do, I think Obama is in serious trouble. He needed to not only win a debate more decisively, but he really needed to win the issues. We shall see.
[/quote]

Last night will drop romney 2-3 points and bump o back up 2-3 points.

National polls are sort of pointless, without Ohio, Romney is dead in the water.

Hey did anyone know that today some people are calling Mitt Romney a bulley for his actions lastnight towards Candi Crowley…serioiusly

…Are you fucking kidding me?

[quote]Phoenix44e wrote:
Hey did anyone know that today some people are calling Mitt Romney a bulley for his actions lastnight towards Candi Crowley…serioiusly

…Are you fucking kidding me?[/quote]

She was lubricating, oiling-up, and massaging the president on national TV last night, she should have been checked on it.

But if Romney begins to break out nationally, it could have an effect on Ohio. RCP average shows a 2.2 gap, favoring Obama. That’s not insurmountable, and could be wiped out by a bandwagon effect. I’m just not as convinced last night has much of an effect on recent trends.

[quote]MaximusB wrote:

If you had a couple or your men killed on your watch, due to an act of terror, would you go campaigning in Vegas the next day ?[/quote]

No and that was a good point by romney loss in the total fuck up that was the rose garden comments.

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]MaximusB wrote:

If you had a couple or your men killed on your watch, due to an act of terror, would you go campaigning in Vegas the next day ?[/quote]

No and that was a good point by romney loss in the total fuck up that was the rose garden comments.[/quote]

I would even throw in a “you went to campaign in the state with the highest foreclosure rate, and highest unemployment rate in the nation, after suggesting you don’t go and blow a bunch of cash in Vegas when you’re trying to save for college” comment he made in 2010.

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Cortes wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

As for the general public you are overestimating their intelligence. Most do not recognize bias in the media. Nor will they recognize a softball thrown to Obama and a hardball at Romney. Especially if it’s done with the finesse that only the MSLM can bring to such events. Trust me when I say that the Obama campaign is thrilled with the choice of Candy Crowley as the moderator. And if you watch closely tonight you will see the subtle slights that she gives to Romney. The unfinished sentences, the interruptions etc. And you will also see the gifts given to Obama. How she may bail him out or stop a pounding rigth in its tracks with gems like “we have to get another question in here…bla bla bla…”

Hey if I’m wrong you can remind me of it on Wednesday.

I agree Obama will not be a laughing fool like his running mate. He’ll be poised, upbeat, smiling when appropriate and seemingly very able. We all know what we get with Romney he’s very stable and has been in every debate that I’ve ever seen him in and I watched about a dozen of the republican primary debates.

[/quote]

Bumped for Nostradamian accuracy.

Pic definitely related.[/quote]

Cortes my friend thank you very much for the pat on the back. I was actually hoping I’d be wrong on that call but in my heart I knew what was ahead.

[/quote]

It was spot on ZEB.

Holy shit, someone arrested for trying to blow up the Federal Reserve building today.

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

My father is as angry about this as I have ever seen him about anything.

.[/quote]

You guys a C-Corp or Scorp/partnership?

You don’t have to answer publicly if you don’t want. But I would suggest, if The One wins, you get as much income into 2012 as you can, assume bonus is gone and the PR tax holiday ends. Obamacare hits your medicare portion on your wages as well, so you want to think about bonusing out any profits in 2012.

If you have any major sales or capital transactions pending or thinking about, get that shit done in 2012 as well.

The republican house can only hold off the WH and Senate for so long, and will bow in tax for something else along the way.

Bottom line, call your acountant if O wins.[/quote]

We are a C Corp.

We always try and bonus out the majority of the profits before the end of the year, or invest in capital infastructure.

My father and our CFO spend about an hour daily trying to figure out how to not get further fingred by the tax burden.

Thanks for your advice Beans, next year is going to be a long one for our business me thinks.

[quote]Mufasa wrote:

I say this because you simply can’t compare these current times with those during Bush’s years…and CERTAINLY not Reagans! (Zeb!)…and this is from the GOP candidate. And the remedies will not…CAN not…be the same.

Mufasa[/quote]

Good point because lowering taxes which would spur job growth thus increasing the tax base would never work in 2012…oh wait…YES IT WOULD!

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:
I own a small business and all I’ve seen over the past four years are rising taxes, more regulation and constant threats by the President of the United States that I am not paying my fair share. And on top of that he spit in my face when he said that “you didn’t build that…someone else did it for you.”

[/quote]

Hope you don’t make more than 250k… With Obama care, and the way ohio looks, all told, according to Kiplinger, you’re looking at a roughtly 10-12% increase in Federal taxes.

Enjoy that.

I’m fucked as well, but not as much as you, lol.[/quote]

My response to a second Obama term should we all be so unlucky to experience will be the same reaction I had to his first term. Stop hiring and stay out of the stock market. In addition to this I’ve already informed my employees that if Obama should win and consequently raise my taxes to punish me because I am a successful small business owner I will lower their wages and raise prices to make up for 2/3rds of the tax hike. I will shoulder the other 1/3rd. No expansion, no hiring, lower wages and higher prices. If that’s the kind of economy that Obama wants I am more than happy to give it to him!

And I assure you there are many, many others just like me who will respond in a similar fashion.

[quote]MaximusB wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]smh23 wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]smh23 wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]smh23 wrote:
Obama decisively. I am literally astounded that Mitt Romney could somehow have allowed Obama to knock Libya out of the park and end up looking like a castigated child crossed with a stuttering deer in the headlights in the aftermath. I suspect that Crowley’s interjection won’t play well around here, but my view is that Mitt Romney posed the question and she answered it. Correctly. Moderators should be doing a hell of a lot more of that kind of fact-checking, not less (and yes, I agree with all of you that the facts should be checked for both candidates and not just the Republican).

Without the Libya moment, I’d say it was a draw–each side did what it had to, Obama came out like a candidate and not a narcoleptic while Romney continued to hammer away at the numbers and hammer them well.

Again, how in God’s name did Romney end up losing the night on Libya?

What will it mean? A few points and therefor the lead back to Obama. Things could change with the 3rd debate but time is running out and the contours of the electorate are probably already beginning to crystallize.[/quote]

Why can’t you see that when Romney was about to throw the Libya knock out punch the referee, Candy Crowley tripped him from behind.

It’s called B I A S…As I sad before the debate Crowley was in the tank for Obama and she proceeded to prove me correct. And even so Romney held his own against both of them.[/quote]

Crowley showed bias and proved you prediction correct, that is uncontested.

But–this was Mitt Romney’s fault. He had the opportunity to mount a broad and damning assault on Barack Obama’s response to the tragedy in Libya, and instead he allowed it–no, he ENCOURAGED it–to be framed in the narrowest possible sense. He turned a scathing critique into a yes-or-no question to which he did not know the answer. Candy Crowley answered the question and she answered it correctly. It was bias on her part, yes, but it was also unbelievable incompetence on Romney’s part.

Mitt Romney had all the ammunition in the world and yet in the heat of the moment he went all in on a matter of wording.[/quote]

But you and I don’t know where Romney would have taken his attack because Candy Crowley took Obama’s side and essentially turned it around.

He may have done exactly what you claim he should have.

Just like to fighters in a cage, all a referee has to do is stop the fight at a crucial moment then restart them and it is a game changer!

Get it?[/quote]

It was Romney himself who challenged the President on a trivial technicality rather than on the larger issue. It was Romney who bet his argument on whether or not the words “act of terror” were uttered in the Rose Garden that day. It was Romney who brought this upon himself.

And again, Crowley was a terrible moderator, she interjected where she shouldn’t have, and the questions selected were very obviously tougher on Romney than on Obama. This was not an even debate. But Romney didn’t do himself any good on Libya, and that’s abundantly clear.[/quote]

You are assuming that Romney was going to end where he began. But, my point is he was not allowed to finish his point because the moderator was busy trying to help Obama.

Unless you have a crystal ball and know that he was going to end there you have to give Romney the benefit of the doubt as the moderator cut him off.

Would he have run for the touchdown? We’ll never know the referee tripped him.[/quote]

I think it’s funny that some people are saying “you know you lost a debate when you blame the referee.”

Ask the NFL replacement refs if referees can fuck up a game or not.
[/quote]

Was that an inappropriate metaphor? Perhaps it was. But I do know when a moderator in a debate is a left wing feminist and follows lock step behind your opponent that eventually…in that debate…she’s going to help him out. And she did just that!

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

We always try and bonus out the majority of the profits before the end of the year, or invest in capital infastructure.[/quote]

Do the math if it would work better to take it as a dividend while you can still get the 15% on qualified.

Expect the bonus dep’n to go away, but I would imagine sec 179 will go back up to 2010 levels. This year it is at 2007 levels.

Dep’n rules are how the government plays with corporate tax rates to spur economic activity, durable goods and all that.

Long and short term strategy is key. Being a C causes flexibity issues, but can be worked around.

There are so many things up in the air right now, it is very hard to plan beyond the next 3 months.

Maybe not. The extra $ obama’s taxaggeden will pull out of the economy will be a bit of a killer, and I would expect wages to remain flat, with disposable income going down as the SS tax holiday ends, but you never know.

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]MaximusB wrote:
Today’s Gallup has Romney up 51-45.[/quote]

Aye. There’s a threat of a Romney break away. Obama is in real danger of being the victim of a late in the game bandwagon which isn’t going his way. The question is, does last night’s debate play a factor? I just don’t think so. I don’t think Obama ran away with as his supporters like to think.

The snap shot polls showed a reasonably tight judgment. Sure, they favored Obama on the main, who won the debate. But it wasn’t even remotely a butt-kicking, going by those snap polls. And that’s with a major Romney fumble. And on the issues, while Romney might have come up short on the main, he did damn well according to the same polls.

The question is, how accurately will the snap polls reflect the public at large. If they do, I think Obama is in serious trouble. He needed to not only win a debate more decisively, but he really needed to win the issues. We shall see.
[/quote]

That debate will mean nothing to either candidate. If you liked Obama before you like him now, if you liked Romney before you still like him.

I spoke to a banker friend of mine who is a democrat and voted for Obama in 08’. And he is going to vote for him again. He’s friends with some of the Biden staffers. He said that last night was a draw in his opinion. And while his democratic friends were relieved that Obama put in a good performance but most agreed that it was too close to matter. They’re just glad that their guy didn’t get steam rolled like in the first debate.

Also, as I’ve said Monday it’s a new ball game!

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

We always try and bonus out the majority of the profits before the end of the year, or invest in capital infastructure.[/quote]

Do the math if it would work better to take it as a dividend while you can still get the 15% on qualified.

Expect the bonus dep’n to go away, but I would imagine sec 179 will go back up to 2010 levels. This year it is at 2007 levels.

Dep’n rules are how the government plays with corporate tax rates to spur economic activity, durable goods and all that.

Long and short term strategy is key. Being a C causes flexibity issues, but can be worked around.

There are so many things up in the air right now, it is very hard to plan beyond the next 3 months.

Maybe not. The extra $ obama’s taxaggeden will pull out of the economy will be a bit of a killer, and I would expect wages to remain flat, with disposable income going down as the SS tax holiday ends, but you never know. [/quote]

Agreed, but venture capital tends to dry up in those situations and we rely on that to finance our larger projects.

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]MaximusB wrote:
Today’s Gallup has Romney up 51-45.[/quote]

Aye. There’s a threat of a Romney break away. Obama is in real danger of being the victim of a late in the game bandwagon which isn’t going his way. The question is, does last night’s debate play a factor? I just don’t think so. I don’t think Obama ran away with as his supporters like to think.

The snap shot polls showed a reasonably tight judgment. Sure, they favored Obama on the main, who won the debate. But it wasn’t even remotely a butt-kicking, going by those snap polls. And that’s with a major Romney fumble. And on the issues, while Romney might have come up short on the main, he did damn well according to the same polls.

The question is, how accurately will the snap polls reflect the public at large. If they do, I think Obama is in serious trouble. He needed to not only win a debate more decisively, but he really needed to win the issues. We shall see.
[/quote]

Last night will drop romney 2-3 points and bump o back up 2-3 points.

National polls are sort of pointless, without Ohio, Romney is dead in the water.[/quote]

No way my friend! Not with the third debate so close. If you recall it took a full two weeks for many people to decide that they were going to vote for Romney after the first debate. In this case Romney fought Obama and Crowley to about a draw. This will not chip into any lead that he has in the national polls or the swing states.

Right now it’s dead even in Ohio and I hope it stays that way!

Any state where you see Romney tied with Obama Romney will most likely win that state. The anti Obama turn out will be great! And Obama’s supporters are no where near as fired up as they were in 2008…would you be?

For Obama to feel comfortable on election eve the poll numbers must show him up nationally, and in swing states by about 3 to 4 points.

Now that may happen, but if it does it will have NOTHING to do with last nights debate…NADA!

[quote]Sloth wrote:
But if Romney begins to break out nationally, it could have an effect on Ohio. RCP average shows a 2.2 gap, favoring Obama. That’s not insurmountable, and could be wiped out by a bandwagon effect. I’m just not as convinced last night has much of an effect on recent trends.[/quote]

Well said and a good insight into what may effect Ohio.

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

Agreed, but venture capital tends to dry up in those situations and we rely on that to finance our larger projects.[/quote]

Tough market right now. I have a client that will be lucky to raise a fund at half the capital value of the one they closed in 2007/2008.

Thing is, a lot of VC money is from pension funds and the like. They have ratios for alternative investments and risk. After a meltdown like 2009, they have to lower their investments in VC, because their base figure is lower due to losses.

Even though the market is up, they understand the “bubble” type effects of things like QE 1, 2 & 3, and are weary of the gains in the market, and confidence levels among investors. It isn’t a great sign when you have high demand for long term bonds that may or may not cover inflation.

I’m not sold that the recent ripples by CitiGroup’s CEOs departure isn’t more than meets the eye, but it could be very innocent as well.

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

Agreed, but venture capital tends to dry up in those situations and we rely on that to finance our larger projects.[/quote]

Tough market right now. I have a client that will be lucky to raise a fund at half the capital value of the one they closed in 2007/2008.

Thing is, a lot of VC money is from pension funds and the like. They have ratios for alternative investments and risk. After a meltdown like 2009, they have to lower their investments in VC, because their base figure is lower due to losses.

Even though the market is up, they understand the “bubble” type effects of things like QE 1, 2 & 3, and are weary of the gains in the market, and confidence levels among investors. It isn’t a great sign when you have high demand for long term bonds that may or may not cover inflation.

I’m not sold that the recent ripples by CitiGroup’s CEOs departure isn’t more than meets the eye, but it could be very innocent as well.[/quote]

We build large renewable energy projects, and you would think those would be sexy under a Dem administration…but banks want oil/gas.

Our former backer was the national pension fund of Canada, but they cut funding after losses in their other investments.

Bottom line, banks are scared…and businesses are not gonna be hiring without funding.

But I sure Obama will hire another 25,000 redundant government employees.

Somebody has to pay for the increase in unemployment benefits and welfare recipients.

/le sigh