Let me reiterate that the DEMS and their bullshit are making me as nauseous as Trump and his band of Minions.
In terms of Polls.
2016 proved to me that whether a person “approves” or “disapproves” of a candidate (or at least “say” when taking a Poll)…what they do in that voting booth or check on that ballot can be something entirely different.
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The reality of the 2016 polls were such that nearly all of the mainstream ones were correct within their margin of error. Most polls were expecting HRC to win by millions of votes. Not a shocker that the polling reflected that.
What specifically moved the election the other direction was the concept of the electoral college.
p kinda hit this but “zomg you can’t trust polls look at 2016!” is shortsighted (not saying you are making this argument.) General election polling was essentially correct in the sense that HRC won by millions of votes. State polling is finicky and many of these battleground states were within the margin of error. It’s not like Trump carried a bunch of states he was polling 20% behind in.
Many models showed Clinton as the favorite, some more heavy than others. But as I pointed out even if Trump is a 40% underdog in a model that means he wins sometimes.
For the most part polling has been really good in the modern era of politics and continues to improve. It will never be perfect but we simply don’t have anything else to rely on before election results to tell us what may be happening and what people think.
So…
People with supposed experience in Polling didn’t factor in the Electoral College with their predictions?
Again; not exactly a ringing endorsement of Polling accuracy.
I’ll accept 2016 as an “outlier” that hopefully pollers learned from.
With that said; with the exception of what happens on Election Night where they are often using actual votes cast; it’s all sounding like a Crap Shoot, especially this far out.
I really don’t want to admit this, but I know it’s true. It goes against every grain of my scientific mindset.
I don’t even blame Hillary to be honest. She had party corruption pushing her through and besides was a lifetime Pol. I agree we should demand far more (and aren’t), but politicians are bound to seek as much power as they can and especially those who have been christened in advance. She at least was civilized.
I knew Trump was going to drag down the GoP if he won, but I didn’t want to believe he would succeed in dragging down the entire national discourse…
People have always cussed and ranted and thrown fits though. It’s just on blast now because everyone has a Twitter account or Instagram page and before they used to only rant to their friends at the pub over beer … exposure is exponentially greater is all.
And while the POTUS is supposed to be a representative of the people, he/she is also supposed to be an exemplar - a model of “the best of us”. Not the dominance of our id.
I do agree that it’s veneer. However not only do words themselves have power, but the way they are communicated has power too…from word choice to body language to facial expression.
Morlocks…
Well played sir. I announce my campaign tomorrow, how about a cabinet post?
Director of Comunifuckincations!
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What politicians do behind closed doors is one thing but I couldn’t agree more that words matter. I can only imagine a teacher who wants to show a speech of Trump but has to preview it first to make sure it’s appropriate to show to children.
Just a constant embarrassment to the position. I would feel this way even if I agreed with every policy and plan put forth.
I can only imagine how awful the 1 on 1 2020 debates will be.
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Right, @H_factor?
I don’t think we have seen anything yet. Wait until things are boiled down to the actual DEM nominee.
Hell hath seen no Fury like the Conservative/Trump/Twitter Machine that will be unleashed.
I’d almost prefer someone like Trump who lets you know exactly what they think/believe than a racist like LBJ who puts up a front all the time.
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Less than 100k total votes decided the electoral swing that gave Trump the win.
The aim of most polls I’ve seen is to reflect the popular vote. Makes sense when you consider theres 1000 other elections going on when POTUS gets elected, and they’re all by popular vote.
So it IS a ringing endorsement of polling accuracy. You’re just attributing things to many polls they weren’t in place to capture, and didn’t announce.
Why would a group of people, that were largely absolutely correct with their statements, ‘learn’ from a situation you’re misinterpreting.
What they hopefully learned is that the public doesn’t seem to be capable of consuming poll data.
Because somehow he is the only honest politician who ever lived. The guy made a living by bullshitting.
I’m not worried about keyboard warriors ambushing the federal agents who come to take their guns. They have mortgages and jobs and kids. Push comes to shove, they’ll just bury an SKS in an unmarked location like everyone else.
I absolutely WOULD worry about all the Nam vets and lonely old widowers I used to sell bullets to at gun shows. They’ve got nothing to live for and would have no qualms taking just one more life.
The problem is there are 100 million gun owners in the US. You only need .01% to decide violence is the answer to have 10,000 violent people spread across the country. Literally armed and dangerous.
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Sounds like Detroit or Chicago.
Yeah. But very few gang members are combat veterans. A few old marines could shut down an entire state just taking pot shots at officers from cover. That’s a scenario I don’t want to see.
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To be honest, I see this as the potential nail in the coffin for gun owners and 2a supporters.
If I were a Soros run the world type, I’d probably hope for it.
I just honestly don’t know what the tipping point balloon go up moment would be. But there was a HYUGE reaction to Waco and Ruby Ridge. I think a forced gun confiscation would end up being dozens of Wacos every week. That’s a lot of dead citizens that weren’t hurting anyone. Who knows, maybe the lefties will be able to stomach all the dead bodies. The power hungry never let piles of corpses bother them.
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Oh I don’t think one exists. At the end of the day nearly all Americans dont want to die, or cast eternal shame on all their surviving relatives.
I think, very quickly, old vets that decided they wanted to die would figure out how much of a joke they are. Then it would stop very quickly.
I would stomach it. If some Looney retard goes on a killing spree, I never blame the reason they’re giving for why it’s happening.
I blame the guy who pulled the trigger.