[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
orion wrote:
I am aware of the manipulations, but I am even more aware of the need for an unbiased source for inflation data.
Would you say, in the entrepreneurial sense, such inflation data influences you?
I am trying to wrap my mind around the notion that I could predict any thing useful with such a measurement – other than a certain class of prices have risen and certain class of people will be affected by it. How one chooses to act and how those actions will play out is still ultimately left to the actions of individuals.
It seems to me that the fundamental flaw in being influenced by such data is that everyone would ultimately attempt to predict the future based on the same data; the entrepreneur attempts to guess not only what the general consumer might do but also what other competing entrepreneurs might do in order to soften his exposure to a loss or increase his profits. Does not the correctness of the entrepreneurs’ actions still ultimately rely on individual free will when all is said and done? For example, Billy-Bob doesn’t care a wit about the CPI, when he wants a new pop-up trailer he’ll go buy it or maybe instead he goes on holiday with his family to Hawaii – whether he has the cash or not.[/quote]
Let´s see:
My first point would be that inflation does not matter or even exist in a real sense for Joe Sixpack unless it affects him by raising the prices of the goods that he really needs.
My second point is that in a lot of cases it is not cost efficient to renegotiate a contract each year, especially not when you rent out hundreds or thousands of appartments or hold millions of insurance contracts.
Why not use an index that measures what the effects of inflation are on your average customer and make, f.E. the rent, rise automatically with what this customer experiences as inflation.
I am not really trying to predict anything with the CPI, usually people are trying to find out what is going on or even what was going on half a year ago.
How could having a map, albeit an inaccurate one, not be better than flying blind?
[quote]lixy wrote:
rainjack wrote:
$79.29/barrel for NYMEX crude.
Maybe lifty should take a year off as well. He’s even more clueless than lixy.
EDIT: Lixy - I won’t hold you to the bet. But I do reserve the right to hold this over your head for the rest of your life.
Well, I was wrong.
I’ll honor my commitment by refraining from further posts until October, 10th 2009.[/quote]
You should continue to post as I believe the sentiment on the forum is that eating your own underwear would be punishment enough.
I for one thought the likely hood of oil going as low as $80/barrel as it has was low. This does vindicate OPEC’s decision not to add additional volumes to the the market (this would likely have accelerated the downwards price spiral) as the fall is price is directly linked to the global slowdown/recession we are currently seeing.
One positive which should stop the price sliding too much is demand in China still remains strong, I would estimate that the price will recover over the next month to sit somewhere around the $90 - $100 mark.
