[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
zephead4747 wrote:
RJ if we open up offshore and land drilling around the US, and MAYBE start using shale oil (if feasable), AND get rid of the tarrif on sugarcane ethanol do you think we could hit sub 2$ a gallon gas, or even cheaper? Possibly in the next 3-4 years?
First off , we cannot talk about drilling for oil using collectivist terms such as we. There is no collective decision to drill or not to drill.
“We” can allow drilling thru deregulation and the legislative process as such but “we” will not be doing the drilling. An entrepreneur still has to make that decision.
At the current price levels I wouldn’t expect it. There is no incentive to drill in new areas that have not produced oil yet because the risk is high and the reward is low. $150/bl oil might be better in this regard.
The price of oil only has any bearing on the price of gas because of how much will be refined due to the price of purchasing oil on the open market.
Refiners will buy less oil to refine when it is expensive thus driving up the price for gas due to lowered supply; the price of gas can still remain high even when the price of oil is low due to demand remaining high.
Ethanol would only lower the price of gas if people used it instead of regular gas – thus lowering gas’ demand. We would expect the optimal supply of ethanol when both ethanol and gasoline can be supplied at around the same price.
The short answer to your question, what is the price level that clears the market and makes supplying gasoline a profitable enterprise? Sub-$2/gallon might not be the right price for many suppliers. We will only know when/if it happens.[/quote]
Lifty - go back to reading economic theory. You know dick about the real world. and you proved it in spades in this one post.
Oil prices only have to be above $40/barrel to increase domestic exploration. $60/barrel is when offshore exploration is viable.
National Oilwell Varco has a backlog of over a year - when oil prices were around $80. If you don’t know who they are, or what they do, just google them.
Actually, the price of oil will soon become moot as a factor in exploring for US oil. The US should incentivize the shit out of domestic production. It creates tons of jobs, and reduces our payments to countries who wish us dead.
Anyhow - the $150/barrel number Lifty pulled out of his ass is complete and utter bullshit seeing as oil has never closed at $150/barrel - ever.