Obama's Pastor

[quote]pookie wrote:

Well, with your economy rapidly vanishing down the toilet, your failing dollar, the rising gas prices and the election 8 months away, there might not be many swing voters left that care for his “Econowhat? Let’s have more Iraq war and take on Iran too!” platform. Maybe he can conscript all welfare recipients and send them over, fixing two problems at once.

But what do I know? I guess running on mostly extending Bush’s policies when GWB’s approval ratings hover slightly above 20% shows “good judgment and experience.”

I think the Democrats might have finally met an election they cannot lose, no matter how bad they try.

I said “might.”

[/quote]

Running on the idea that enacting an increase in taxes during an economic slow down isn’t a good idea isn’t bad economics.

Given GWB, the Republicans should have lost this election - with the Dems infighting, and with McCain at the top of the ticket, they just might win. If the economy tanks though, it will be a tough row to hoe. Still, there’s reason to believe that the dollar will need to be stabilized soon - in time for the election.

Here are the latest polls - makes me happy, even though it’s way too early to mean anything in terms of the general election:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

[quote]lixy wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:

BostonBarrister wrote:
None was my first choice, but of the three I like McCain best (which is to say I dislike certain things about him and his positions less than I dislike the other two).

lixy wrote:
Given that you consider foreign policy the most important criteria, how can you possibly consider voting for someone who wants your compatriotic younglings to keep getting slaughtered and maimed in a place that’s got nothing to do with your nation’s sovereignty?

At what number of US casualties and squandered money will you start considering that it may be time to call it quits?

I’m not sidetracking yet another thread re-hashing Iraq - go start another thread and we can discuss Iraq again, saying the same things again.

I don’t believe I ever saw you address that point. Your arguments usually stops at Iraq’s doing better than a couple of years ago.

Let me ask you a more particular question then: If some Iraqi manages to kill a couple of hundred American soldiers tomorrow (and considering everything else to be constant) will you still be voting for McCain? A simple yes/no will do.[/quote]

Yes.

This is good: What would post-Saddam Iraq have looked like without a coalition presence?

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
Sen. McCain’s speechwriter had some contempt for Obama’s FP statements in an email sent around earlier:

[i]Senator Obama says that ending the war will not be easy, that ‘there will be dangers involved.’ Yet, in that patented way of his, he declines to name those dangers. Let me enumerate a few: al Qaeda, which is now on the run, will survive, claim victory and continue to provoke sectarian tensions that, while they have been subdued by the ‘tactics’ of the surge, still exist and are ripe for provocation by al Qaeda, which would almost certainly ignite again civil war in Iraq, a civil war that could easily descend into genocide.

To say that invading Iraq was used as a recruiting tool for al Qaeda is one thing. To pretend that our defeat there won’t provide an even bigger one is foolish supposition. Iran, which trains Shia extremists and is known to arm and equip Sunni extremists, a fact Senator Obama is apparently unaware of, will also view our premature withdrawal as a victory, as will other countries in the region, and the biggest state supporter of terrorists, a country with nuclear ambitions and a stated desire to destroy the State of Israel, will see its influence in the Middle East grow significantly.

These are some of ‘dangers,’ that our premature withdrawal from Iraq will engender, and they all have the potential to destabilize the entire region. A realistic plan to prevent them from occurring is what people with experience in statecraft call ‘strategy,’ something Senator Obama has not offered yet.[/i]

That was by speechwriter Mark Salter. You’ll note the continued use of the claim about support coming to Sunni terrorists from inside Iran. This isn’t a misstatement. They’re pressing this and attacking Obama on it. I’ll be interested to see how this fight plays out.

ADDENDUM:

ALSO - Note the email above is different from the statement reference below, so the McCain campaign is really putting this out there.

Here’s an excerpt from a WSJ blog post on this:

[i]A McCain adviser said that the statement was carefully written to avoid implying with certainty that it was the Iranian government that is supporting al Qaeda. Rather, he said, there is “ample evidence” that other forces in Iran were doing so. The aide suggested, however, that it was hard to believe that elements of Iran’s power structure couldn’t be at least complicit in these efforts.

To support the claim, the campaign provided articles from conservative publications such as the Weekly Standard.

The campaign does concede that McCain was wrong yesterday when he said that Iranian operatives were “taking al Qaeda into Iran, training them and sending them back.” In fact, American officials believe that was the case with Shiite militants operating in Iraq. McCain quickly corrected himself, after a prompting from his friend and colleague, Sen. Joseph Lieberman, a Connecticut independent. He made similar comments earlier on a radio program, though he did not correct those.

Democrats saw no distinction between the two statements and pounced - again. “Either John McCain is purposely playing politics with the facts on the ground or he doesn’t understand the threat facing Iraq and our brave troops,” said a statement today from DNC Communications Director Karen Finney.[/i]

(Also added the link for the first part.)[/quote]

Funny,

Our being in Iraq is the only reason for Al qaeda to be there, the military just did a study on this. The easiest way to get rid of them is leave.

and it’s clear McCain is trying to conflate the bad guys. Only Lieberman was off message.

Also they seem to be unaware that the sunni extremists/AQI have already declared victory, and Iran’s influence has already greatly increased. They really are idiots over there.

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
Rather, he said, there is “ample evidence” that other forces in Iran were doing so.[/quote]

Where is that evidence?

There was also ample evidence that Saddam had WMDs and means of using them.

Until about 2 months ago, there was ample evidence that Iran was mere months away from being nuclear-capable.

By now, we’re quite well acquainted with the Republican kind of “ample evidence.” It’s a synonym for “shit we make up and repeat often.”

Hard to believe? At least? Evidence doesn’t require belief. It’s based on facts. Where are those facts?

Wow. I wasn’t aware that the Weekly Standard was now an official intelligence agency.

Think of the saving you’ll have by abolishing the NSA, CIA, DHS, FBI, BAT, etc. now that we have the Weekly Standard keeping us up to date on what’s what.

McCain was wrong? What are we arguing about then? He was wrong yesterday and he was wrong monday.

Senator McCain? I have a question? Could you explain what a Shiite is?

You gotta prompt him first. Maybe he can pick Lieberman as a running mate.

No, no. His mastery of the situation is complete. Now McCain just needs to tell Petraeus to shut the fuck up about the lack of progress.

But his pastor is a polite, non-controversial white guy, so I guess he’s your man.

He came on strong a little too late - his later debates and speeches were his best.

Also, per TB, no “fire in the belly” is a good defense against power-grabbers and legacy-obsessors.

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:

Given GWB, the Republicans should have lost this election - with the Dems infighting, and with McCain at the top of the ticket, they just might win.[/quote]

This is a key point.

The GOP is hurting, and not even doing much to cure its woes, offering the same policy garbage that got them in trouble in the first place (see: earmarks). GWB’s popularity is low, and GOP voters routinely complained even they weren’t excited about their own candidates.

So what do the Democrats do with this ripe electoral opportunity?

  1. Narrow their candidates down to two: one is a polarizing, less-than-spectacular female Senator with more political baggage than any candidate in recent history, and the other is an untested, shallow neophyte with nothing in his personal or professional history that suggests he is up to the task of leading anything.

  2. Begin identity-politics fratricide within the party, with both sides of the nation’s liberal party accusing each other of being racist and sexist.

A Republican could just win in 2008, but he will have to thank the Democrats for their assistance if he does.

[quote]pookie wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
Rather, he said, there is “ample evidence” that other forces in Iran were doing so.

Where is that evidence?
[/quote]

It’s a long campaign. I’ll be waiting for it as well.

[quote]pookie wrote:
Until about 2 months ago, there was ample evidence that Iran was mere months away from being nuclear-capable.[/quote]

And currently it looks as if they may have started up again.

[quote]pookie wrote:

But his pastor is a polite, non-controversial white guy, so I guess he’s your man.

[/quote]

Yeah, that’s it exactly. Nothing to do with anything else I’ve written. GMAFB.

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
Running on the idea that enacting an increase in taxes during an economic slow down isn’t a good idea isn’t bad economics.[/quote]

If you stop spending 10 billions a week in Iraq, you can invest at home.

If the Iraqis haven’t stepped up after over 1 trillion in spending, how much more are you going to give them before you realize that they’re laughing at you.

Hell, half the reason the Surge is “working” is because you’re bribing the various factions into being peaceful.

Would’ve been a lot easier and cheaper to simply give Saddam a 10B$ retirement gift and ask him firmly to leave.

We’ll see. With our Canadian economy being so tightly bound to yours (bastards) I really hope you guys get your shit together post-haste.

[quote]Here are the latest polls - makes me happy, even though it’s way too early to mean anything in terms of the general election:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Clinton [/quote]

At this point, you might as well toss a coin or read tea leaves.

[quote]100meters wrote:
Funny,

Our being in Iraq is the only reason for Al qaeda to be there, the military just did a study on this. The easiest way to get rid of them is leave.

and it’s clear McCain is trying to conflate the bad guys. Only Lieberman was off message.

Also they seem to be unaware that the sunni extremists/AQI have already declared victory, and Iran’s influence has already greatly increased. They really are idiots over there.[/quote]

AQI has declared victory? The flypaper theory may or may not have been an original motivator - though the idea was advanced very early - but in the case of AQI, they’ve been decimated.

Iran has definitely seen increased influence in the area though.

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
A Republican could just win in 2008, but he will have to thank the Democrats for their assistance if he does. [/quote]

That’s for sure.

How does a political party develop such an affinity for failure? I swear, looking in from the bleachers, you’d think they take courses in Defeat 101.

How the Hell did Clinton ever manage to win in '92 an '96? Before blowing it, so to speak.

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
Yeah, that’s it exactly. Nothing to do with anything else I’ve written. GMAFB.[/quote]

There we go. Let the truth set you free.

:stuck_out_tongue:

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
but in the case of AQI, they’ve been decimated.[/quote]

How is that established?

AQ, being an “underground” terrorist organization doesn’t really post yearly statements about its doings.

So how does one distinguish between “they got decimated” and “they’re being discreet for now?”

Have they finally run out of Number Twos to kill?

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:

  1. Narrow their candidates down to two: one is a polarizing, less-than-spectacular female Senator with more political baggage than any candidate in recent history, and the other is an untested, shallow neophyte with nothing in his personal or professional history that suggests he is up to the task of leading anything.[/quote]

Who do you think would’ve been their best candidate for the next election?

[quote]pookie wrote:.

If you stop spending 10 billions a week in Iraq, you can invest at home.

If the Iraqis haven’t stepped up after over 1 trillion in spending, how much more are you going to give them before you realize that they’re laughing at you.

Hell, half the reason the Surge is “working” is because you’re bribing the various factions into being peaceful.

Would’ve been a lot easier and cheaper to simply give Saddam a 10B$ retirement gift and ask him firmly to leave.

[/quote]

The initial invasion was successful. We could have used the “rubble doesn’t make trouble” theory and just left - but that would have been inconsistent with one of the reasons for going in.

The initial occupation - and the next several years - were an abyssmal failure.

But the Surge is working - the violence is down, the Sunnis and Shia have turned on the foreign fighters (AQI), and the political factions are coming together. It’s progressing toward a stable entity - and if it works and we have another stable ally in the region, it will be worth it. We’re pushing forward while it’s improving because if we pull out it will definitely be worse. But if things do significantly worsen again, I think we’ll be finished.

I don’t think we’ll be pulling out after election day - and that’s irrespective of who wins - unless there were a significant worsening. Neither of the Dem candidates would pull out if things weren’t worsening, irrespective of their campaign rhetoric. Obama’s foreign policy adviser said as much - and got canned. Just like his economics adviser told the Canadians Obama’s campaign rhetoric on NAFTA was full of it - and got canned.

[quote]pookie wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
but in the case of AQI, they’ve been decimated.

How is that established?

AQ, being an “underground” terrorist organization doesn’t really post yearly statements about its doings.

So how does one distinguish between “they got decimated” and “they’re being discreet for now?”

Have they finally run out of Number Twos to kill?
[/quote]

The best evidence has been the intercepted communications - I’ll have to look for the links.

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
pittbulll wrote:

The only thing I could find objectionable is his cursing America, Out of curiosity how did you come to the conclusion that Obama lacks sincerity about his faith?

I find the gist of the excerpted part of this interpretation both plausible and probable:

But of course they’re right that it’ll hurt him electorally because Obama’s going to have a hard time explaining that I take to be the truth, namely that his relationship with Trinity has been a bit cynical from the beginning. After all, before Obama was a half-black guy running in a mostly white country he was a half-white guy running in a mostly black neighborhood. At that time, associating with a very large, influential, local church with black nationalist overtones was a clear political asset (it’s also clear in his book that it made him, personally, feel “blacker” to belong to a slightly kitschy black church). Since emerging onto a larger stage, it’s been the reverse and Obama’s consistently sought to distance himself from Wright, disinviting him from his campaign’s launch, analogizing him to a crazy uncle who you love but don’t listen to, etc. The closest analogy would probably be to Hillary Clinton’s inconsistent accounting of where she’s from (bragging about midwestern roots when trying to win in Iowa, promptly forgetting those roots when explaining away a loss in Illinois, developing a sporadic affection for New York sports teams) – banal, mildly cynical shifts of association as context changes.[/quote]

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
But the Surge is working - the violence is down, the Sunnis and Shia have turned on the foreign fighters (AQI), and the political factions are coming together. It’s progressing toward a stable entity - and if it works and we have another stable ally in the region, it will be worth it. We’re pushing forward while it’s improving because if we pull out it will definitely be worse. But if things do significantly worsen again, I think we’ll be finished.[/quote]

What do you make of the WaPo’s report about Petraeus lamenting the lack of political progress? I’ve posted the link 2 or 3 times already, and for some reason it seems to get ignored each time.

In and ideal world, you’d stay and even increase the troops until you reached you goal. Hell, make Iraq a protectorate and install the governmental institutions yourself.

In the real world, I’m just wondering how much more of this war you can afford. Even setting aside financial concerns, how do you convince the people to keep supporting it after so many years with so little results?

[quote]pookie wrote:

Who do you think would’ve been their best candidate for the next election?[/quote]

Personally? Bill Richardson.

Best resume of them all. Governor, representative, ambassador. Experience in governing. Know state and federal politics. Has international chops. Has negotiated in high stakes international event. Is a Western state Democrat, not an effete, coastal urbanite Democrat. Thinks about economics like an adult, rather than an coffee house philosopher. Corporate, private sector experience.

He did horribly in the debates, and that was a shame, but that is also a function of poor debate formats, where second-tier candidates of both parties try to cram as much as they can in their small window of time and consequently sound incoherent (happens for both parties).

I may disagree with Richardson on plenty of issues, but I’d sleep better is he were the leading Democratic candidate.

Pretty sad that much of those debates seem to amount to little else than popularity contests.

If it ends up McCain/Clinton, then the two most well-known candidates from each side will have clenched the nominations. Maybe Giuliani was as well known as McCain, but he was much too liberal on the wrong issues.

I’m calling it a night. Thank you gentlemen for an interesting discussion.

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
100meters wrote:
Funny,

Our being in Iraq is the only reason for Al qaeda to be there, the military just did a study on this. The easiest way to get rid of them is leave.

and it’s clear McCain is trying to conflate the bad guys. Only Lieberman was off message.

Also they seem to be unaware that the sunni extremists/AQI have already declared victory, and Iran’s influence has already greatly increased. They really are idiots over there.

AQI has declared victory? The flypaper theory may or may not have been an original motivator - though the idea was advanced very early - but in the case of AQI, they’ve been decimated.

Iran has definitely seen increased influence in the area though.[/quote]

The fact that we can continually crush them hasn’t stopped them from declaring countless victories. When we leave they’ll claim another one. Who the F cares? Why the hell should we let the enemy dictate our larger decision, but hey that’s just my take…

now back to the pastor man who apparently is:

the GOP’s “path to victory”