Now we get to see what a extra term for Carter would have looked like. I had no illusions, I didn’t think obama could be beaten by Romney. It was way closer than I thought. It sure was no landslide…500,000 votes separate them in the popular vote. Not an ass kicking by any stretch.
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
[quote]therajraj wrote:
If you want to see a perfect example of how this board effects perception, look at how many people deluded themselves into believing Romney had a good chance of winning the election. [/quote]
raj:
I’m glad you posted this, bacause I have now “called” the last two elections wrong…VERY wrong…and I think I know why. It’s my mis-judgment of enthusiasm…and what it does (or does not) mean.
First…2008:
I COMPLETELY underestimated the enthusiasm out there for the then candidate Obama…and over-estimated McCain’s, especially leading out of the GOP convention. Even now, whether one chooses to like him or not…the President “connects” with a lot of people.
One GOP Pundit put it well last night:
“…Romney told people he could solve their problems…the President went furthur and said I understand your problems…”
That obviously resonated with a lot of people.
And 2012:
While I didn’t over-estimate the scope and degree of disdain and absolute hate out there that exist for the President…I did over-estimate how that would translate into the Voting box.
I’m sure all of you have heard it…hate is a terrible motivator…and it is. And while there is no question that there is a portion of the electorate that truly were “for” Romney…I would guess (but cannot prove) there was a much larger % of what I called “Not Obama” voting; while on the flip-side, the President had a much larger % of voters whom were “for” him. (This was proven in poll after poll of likeability going back to when the President was first running).
I also underestimated this thing I kept hearing about concerning “boots-on-the-ground” or the “ground game” of the President. In many ways, despite all of our technology…elections STILL depend a lot on phone calls and knocking on doors.
Mufasa
[/quote]
All of the polling I saw including those aggregated by Silver indicated that likely voters would vote exactly as they did. The three basic arguments I saw against this was that Republicans were “motivated” and would vote more consistently than democrats; the polling was biased against Republicans; and Independents would “break” against the incumbents. This all turned out to be wishful thinking and “likely voters” apparently voted exactly like the polls said they would.
I think, as you noted, you also have to credit Obama’s ground game because one person’s vote counts as much as the next person’s vote even if one voter is more “excited” or “enthusiastic” about casting it. Obama got out the vote in the urban centers in the states that counted.
Also, one of the things I heard was that Romney would win because the economy was the most important factor. The CNN polling pre-election last night had Romney and Obama tied nationally on who would do a better job with the economy. Romney was down compared to Obama on a lot of other factors. So while Republicans thought Romney was the obvious choice on the economy, the rest of the country was split down the middle on the issue.
My take is polling science is getting pretty damn good and arguments that its purposely manipulated one way or the other is getting harder to support. According the the CNN guy last night, Romney’s own crew knew they were down in Ohio as of Sunday night and I believe Romney and his crew probably knew they were done before anyone else did.
[quote]Brother Chris wrote:
[quote]bigflamer wrote:
I would think that all the believers on this forum would just accept the re election of Obama as their god’s will. Or, could it be that the Obama campaign outmenouvered even thier mighty god?
Say it aint so…[/quote]
False dichotomy. [/quote]
Not exactly.
[quote]FightinIrish26 wrote:
That starts with getting rid of the Bush-era tax cuts.
[/quote]
Bush had more tax revenues than Clinton in 8 years.
Increasing taxs right now is going to hurt the private sector more than it helps the public.
[quote]VTBalla34 wrote:
[quote]MaximusB wrote:
Colorado also passed their marijuana legalization law, enjoy the crime increase. [/quote]
Yeah all those violent pot smokers no longer in prison committing all dem’ der’ crimes[/quote]
I can see it now, hordes of dope smokers, all rioting in the streets as a result of their ultra violent, unmanageable high’s. LOL
[quote]DarkNinjaa wrote:
Well shoot me for laughing at a fucking joke.
Damn.
[/quote]
Nevermind, carry on…
Why discuss an issue when we can discuss who is saying what?
Let me add to what Bolt said about “not being ready to turn the reigns over (completely) to the GOP”…
I have a number of friends and colleagues who get MORE than offended when they are told that if they vote DEM…and ESPECIALLY if they voted for the President… that they are abortion supporting, business-hating, anti-Christian, Socialist/Communist leeches who just “want shit…”
Disagreeing with people is fine…and is as American as it gets…
Saying someone is a dope-smoking whoremonger simply because they don’t agree with you is not.
Mufasa
[quote]MaximusB wrote:
Hey birthers, how did that work out for you ?
Stupid ass crazies, fucking Republican idiots saying rape is God’s will, how bout dat rape ?
Swear to God, if the Republican party does not punt these idiot fucks right out of the party, they deserve to lose. [/quote]
This. The Republican party is increasingly being seen as divisive and extremist.
And serious question here: If God is all powerful and all knowing, why wouldn’t you just assume Obama’s election is God’s will? Are you suggesting that he was asleep at the wheel? How do you decide when something is God’s will and when it’s not?
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Bush had more tax revenues than Clinton in 8 years.
Increasing taxs right now is going to hurt the private sector more than it helps the public.[/quote]
That’s the problem - even dyed-in-the-wool Keynesians don’t think you should raise taxes when the economy is limping.
And in any event, to what end? Why does Obama want so desperately to let the Bush tax cuts expire? In terms of bringing in revenue, they are insubstantial and won’t make a dent.
If it’s revenue you want and need, you need massive tax reform. The Bush tax cuts are simply a symbol for liberals and are unserious as a tool to tackle true deficit reduction.
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]Tiribulus wrote:
I think the day has finally come when I am no longer proud to be an American. [/quote]
If this is true, then they won… Gramsci has won.
I love my country and always will. She has made some mistakes and we’ve worked to fix them before, we will do it again.
Last night is just a difference of opinion as long as you love America and fight for her. Just might have to weather a little more storm is all.[/quote]I love my country too. Love has nothing to do with it. I am not proud of her any more and NO. It is NOT simply a difference of opinion.
It is a foundationally different definition of what she is. I’ll say again. Read Tocqueville for a view of what she was when she was beginning her meteoric rise and look at the cesspool she has become. This is not at the core that United States. Not even in form anymore.
I remember reading a book about the value of emotional intelligence in leadership. The crux of the argument is one’s ability to to understand what the other needs and feels with empathy. The book details how so many leaders say here are my solutions to your problems but they often do not understand what the problem is or the job that needs to be done in the other person’s eyes.
Take for example Bill Clinton vs George H Bush when a woman asked both leaders “How has the debt affected you personally?” Bush was flabergasted because he did not understand she meant how the economic decline of the country has affected her ability to find employment. But Clinton stood up and asked her how she was coping. Obama gets the necessity of emotional intelligence where as Mitt looks at the country as an HBS case study.
Emotional intelligence is often overlooked and now business schools are starting to incorporate it in.
Until the GOP can appeal to someone other than angry white men they are going to be on the outside looking in. It would behoove them to kick the extremists out and try to appeal to the common sense side of independents and center Dems.
Bible beating, gay hating, anti-education, and anti-science isn’t proving to be much of a winning ticket in 2012. Sadly they will just talk about how they weren’t conservative enough instead of the ludicrous notion that maybe they are too conservative except where people want it (fiscally). I.E. Romney I will create 12 million jobs–the government doesn’t create jobs and I will drastically increase defense spending when we spend 37% of all the money in the world on defense.
[quote]kpsnap wrote:
The Republican party is increasingly being seen as divisive and extremist.
[/quote]
Democrats need to clean the progressives out of their own house before throwing stones…
And they just elected a few of them last night.
So, I’ll take being called an extremist anyday because I believe in fiscal responcibility, the constitution and civil liberty.
[quote]Tiribulus wrote:
Read Tocqueville [/quote]
Quite literally in my que starting today, lol.
I was hooked on election coverage.
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]kpsnap wrote:
The Republican party is increasingly being seen as divisive and extremist.
[/quote]
Democrats need to clean the progressives out of their own house before throwing stones…
And they just elected a few of them last night.
So, I’ll take being called an extremist anyday because I believe in fiscal responcibility, the constitution and civil liberty.[/quote]
Completely agree. The problem though is Republicans haven’t proved they believe in much of that. The last three Republican Presidents didn’t shrink the debt, plenty of what GWB was unconstitutional, and how is being against gay marriage supporting civil liberty? The current issue with the GOP is they are only small government on stuff they don’t like. They are huge government on stuff they do like (defense, etc.)
I’d love to kick every “progressive” out of the Democratic party as well.
[quote]bigflamer wrote:<<< Do you believe that it was NOT your gods will for Obama to be elected?[/quote]My answer to you on this is a few pages back Sparky. I went to sleep with His praise on my lips and woke up ready for another glorious day in in the privilege of His service. LOL. My life does not depend on ANY country or ANY man made government. I’m sorry to watch my fellow citizens celebrate their own demise, but I am defined by the risen Christ in my heart. Not whatever corrupt state that He is pleased to have me live under.
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]Tiribulus wrote:
I think the day has finally come when I am no longer proud to be an American. [/quote]
If this is true, then they won… Gramsci has won.
I love my country and always will. She has made some mistakes and we’ve worked to fix them before, we will do it again.
Last night is just a difference of opinion as long as you love America and fight for her. Just might have to weather a little more storm is all.[/quote]
Good post
Final polling data, via CNN:
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president#exit-polls
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Let me add to what Bolt said about “not being ready to turn the reigns over (completely) to the GOP”…
I have a number of friends and colleagues who get MORE than offended when they are told that if they vote DEM…and ESPECIALLY if they voted for the President… that they are abortion supporting, business-hating, anti-Christian, Socialist/Communist leeches who just “want shit…”
Disagreeing with people is fine…and is as American as it gets…
Saying someone is a dope-smoking whoremonger simply because they don’t agree with you is not.
Mufasa [/quote]
Seconded, especially the “whores” bullshit. What we do in our bedrooms doesn’t belong in a discussion of a Presidential election, and anybody clamoring to toss it into the mix is shuffling unsettlingly close to the Westboro Baptists.
[quote]H factor wrote:
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]kpsnap wrote:
The Republican party is increasingly being seen as divisive and extremist.
[/quote]
Democrats need to clean the progressives out of their own house before throwing stones…
And they just elected a few of them last night.
So, I’ll take being called an extremist anyday because I believe in fiscal responcibility, the constitution and civil liberty.[/quote]
Completely agree. The problem though is Republicans haven’t proved they believe in much of that. The last three Republican Presidents didn’t shrink the debt, plenty of what GWB was unconstitutional, and how is being against gay marriage supporting civil liberty? The current issue with the GOP is they are only small government on stuff they don’t like. They are huge government on stuff they do like (defense, etc.)
I’d love to kick every “progressive” out of the Democratic party as well. [/quote]
Pretty sure you and I are on the same page on more than we aren’t.
There is a shit ton of hipocracy in both major parties and their fanboys. I’ll be the first to point out where the Republicans lack. But I will also refuse to allow them to be demagoged either.
They have issues, but disfunction in idealogy cuts both ways.