[quote]therajraj wrote:
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
[quote]therajraj wrote:
DB: you were wrong about Yu Darvish.[/quote]
How do you figure that? I was right about him last year. He was above average but his control issues kept him from being an elite pitcher worth what it cost the Rangers to get him. Am I wrong because he’s had a great start to his second season ever in the big leagues? Get the fuck outta here with that bullshit. This coming from the person who talks about track records and all that.[/quote]
so far he’s thrown 279.2IP 3.54 ERA 10.9k/9
That IS a track record, especially if you take into consideration his Japanese career. Unless you expect him to have a bad second half, I don’t know what you’re complaining about. What is a long enough track record? I think 1.5 years straight is plenty but hey lets wait until the end of the season.
He’s on pace for a 6 WAR season which is really really really good. For reference, In Justin Verlander’s 2012 Cy Young/MVP year he had a 7 WAR by comparison.
I don’t remember exactly what you said, but you weren’t confident he’d be that good at all.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
We’ll know if I was wrong or right about him in another 5 or 6 years. For all we know, he might flame out just like Lincecum did. Although I doubt Darvish’ flame will ever burn as brightly as Lincecum’s did earlier in his career.[/quote]
I don’t consider Lincecum a flame out at all. I would take 2 Cy Youngs over a great 5 year span is fantastic for any pitching prospect coming out of your system.
[/quote]
So, you mean to tell me that you’re claiming I was wrong about Darvish, and then you’re going to turn right around and say that you don’t even remember what I said in the first place? Are you trolling me?
I was skeptical, that’s all. I thought he had a mechanical issue in his windup that needed to be smoothed out a little bit. I was also skeptical of his ability to hold up over the course of a career, which is why we need to wait several more years. I thought that the combination of the slight hesitation in his windup, which essentially forces him to slightly restart his momentum to the plate, his tendency toward high pitch counts and all the innings he’d already thrown would be enough to potentially derail a long career for him.
He seems to have corrected his mechanical issue a bit. He still has the propensity for high pitch counts and that could be problematic, even more so than high innings totals. If he could work the same amount of innings while cutting down on his pitch count, which would mean less walks AND less strikeouts, he will last a long time.
I was also skeptical of his alleged 12-pitch arsenal or whatever people were saying at the time. He definitely has all of his pitches working right now, but the fact is that it is simply very, very hard to maintain control over more than 3 or 4 major league-quality pitches. Sometimes you can get into an extended groove with all of them, like what Darvish appears to have done right now. I also had doubts about how little he seemed to use his fastball in Japan given how good it was. In the majors, it’s all about fastball command and location. It makes it much easier to throw hitters’ timing off if they have to respect the fastball, location-wise. If they don’t respect the fastball then they aren’t going to get caught off-balance when Darvish throws one of his million different off-speed pitches.
But he seems to be throwing the fastball with confidence right now.
And I would argue that Lincecum has definitely flamed out. He’s gone from a 2-time Cy Young Winner with three All-Star appearances, including starting one of the games, and a 2-time World Series champion to a guy who probably won’t get a contract offer from the Giants and is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball since the beginning of last year. All in less than 2 years. His ERA in 2011 was about 2.7. Last year it was 5.18, which was the highest amongst all qualifying pitchers.
I’m not sure there’s ever been a pitcher in modern history whose flame burned as brightly for the first several years of his career. Doc Gooden or Fernando Valenzuela, maybe. But that flame is done with now.