MLB Season 2011

Off Topic
141

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]scj119 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:
What do you guys think of Jose Bautista? One season wonder or worth the contract he was given?[/quote]

He’ll be somewhere between last year’s production and his career average prior to last year.

low-mid 30s home runs if I had to wager.[/quote]

This basically what every expert has been saying. I think the Changes in his swing are for real and I believe the ESPN “experts” pegged him for 39 this year[/quote]

Regression towards the mean.

Rookie of the year candidates? I think everyone knows who mine is…[/quote]

Brandon Belt? I hope you’re right. Unfortunately, like I’ve mentioned before, years of frustration, shattered dreams and apathy have left me with a finely-honed sense of impending doom and I simply can’t bring myself to think it’s possible for the Giants to have two rookie studs back-to-back years. My instinct tells me it’s not only possible but that it will prove to be a reality, but my heart tells me don’t tell her your true feelings because you’ll only get hurt like that one chick from Beijing who stole all your money and sold your dog for 15 yen a pound on the black market and you don’t think you’ll survive another suicide attempt and plus the doctor said not to let…huh? What? The Giants are World Champions? Really? Fuck it, Belt for Rookie of the Year. Heard it here first. Second.[/quote]

No I heard it first a few pages back along with your prediction that Buster Posey will be NL MVP.
[/quote]

And I stand by that prediction. I also stand by my prediction that the Braves will compete all the way down the stretch for the division title. I can’t remember who I chose to take the NL wild card a few pages back, but fuck it. I’ll go out on a limb and say that the Phillies take it and that the Braves take the division. You definitely heard that here first.

By the way, do you motherfuckers realize what day is today? We are officially three weeks to the day from the first pitch of the season! 21 days until all is well in the world again![/quote]

The Braves may compete until September when they fall apart and the Phillies win the division by 5 games. I don’t think I’d call that “all the way down the stretch” but you’ve already done yourself one better and predicted they will win the division, so I guess there is no need to nit pick.

142

Drove by Fenway yesterday on a business trip. Gave my appropriate Yankees salute.

143

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:
Padres will be last again like everyone predicted last year. They’re a lot worse than the Diamondbacks.[/quote]
[/quote]
That doesn’t make sense since they got second. Be thankful they choked away the end of the season or your Giants wouldn’t have won the World Series. Not saying the Giants didn’t deserve it, but you gotta give credit to the Pads.

144

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:
Padres will be last again like everyone predicted last year. They’re a lot worse than the Diamondbacks.[/quote]
[/quote]
That doesn’t make sense since they got second. Be thankful they choked away the end of the season or your Giants wouldn’t have won the World Series. Not saying the Giants didn’t deserve it, but you gotta give credit to the Pads.[/quote]

Agreed. I’m curious what Baumgarner and Posey will do this year.

I can see pitchers adjusting to Posey and him having a tough sophomore campaign.

145

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:
Padres will be last again like everyone predicted last year. They’re a lot worse than the Diamondbacks.[/quote]
[/quote]
That doesn’t make sense since they got second. Be thankful they choked away the end of the season or your Giants wouldn’t have won the World Series. Not saying the Giants didn’t deserve it, but you gotta give credit to the Pads.[/quote]

Us Giants fans don’t have to give shit to the Padres. Sure, they played well over the course of the year, but the bottom line is that a LOT of things went right for them. Not that the Giants didn’t have some luck as well, but the Padres of last year and the Padres of this year are totally different teams.

First of all, no Adrian Gonzalez. And I doubt that their big offseason pickup, Orlando Hudson, will have any larger impact on the offense than Will Venable or Chase Headley. Their biggest weakness got a LOT weaker.

Their pitching was great, but let’s examine that a little closer. Are Clayton Richard and Mat Latos legit? I suppose so, but the reality is that they have no track record beyond last year and they folded down the stretch, especially Latos. Yeah, I know. He’d never pitched that deep into a season or thrown that many innings. Well, the same thing could be said about Madison Bumgarner except that he got better and better as the season wore on and saved his best for his last start of the year in the Series against the best offensive team the Giants faced all year. I don’t think that Latos or Richard are one-hit wonders by any means, but Padres fans should be concerned that Latos is getting fucking shelled in Spring Training right now.

As far as how Bumgarner and Posey will respond this year, well I picked Posey for MVP and it won’t surprise me at all if Bumgarner wins 15+ games this year. It would be one thing if these two were Cody Ross-type players who exploded on the national stage after wallowing in anonymity for years. But Posey and Bumgarner are 1st-round picks with amazing track records at every level (including their relatively short length of time in the bigs) that backs up their high talent level and high expectations. Of course they’ll need to make adjustments to continue thriving, but there’s nothing in their track record to suggest that they can’t do so; they’ve done it at every level so far and I think the reality is that the league had better start adjusting to THEM.

146

Well look at some of the recent NL ROY’s sophomore campaign’s:

2009 Chris Coughlan - production dropped significantly in 2010

2008 Geovany Soto - production dropped significantly in 2009

2007 Ryan Bran - production increased in 2008

2006 Hanley Ramirez - production increased in 2007

Looking at the ROY list there are quite a few notable players and there are also a bunch of duds. Ichiro Suzuki, Albert Pujols… but also Erik Hinske and Bobby Crosby.

147

[quote]therajraj wrote:
Well look at some of the recent NL ROY’s sophomore campaign’s:

2009 Chris Coughlan - production dropped significantly in 2010

2008 Geovany Soto - production dropped significantly in 2009

2007 Ryan Bran - production increased in 2008

2006 Hanley Ramirez - production increased in 2007

Looking at the ROY list there are quite a few notable players and there are also a bunch of duds. Ichiro Suzuki, Albert Pujols… but also Erik Hinske and Bobby Crosby.

[/quote]

We had this conversation like six months ago. If you’re going to evaluate Posey and Bumgarner’s odds of a repeat performance from last year, look at Posey and Bumgarner. What Eric Hinske did a decade ago has no bearing whatsoever on anything. Neither does anything that Hanley Ramirez or Ryan Braun did a few years ago.

148

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:
Padres will be last again like everyone predicted last year. They’re a lot worse than the Diamondbacks.[/quote]
[/quote]
That doesn’t make sense since they got second. Be thankful they choked away the end of the season or your Giants wouldn’t have won the World Series. Not saying the Giants didn’t deserve it, but you gotta give credit to the Pads.[/quote]

Us Giants fans don’t have to give shit to the Padres. Sure, they played well over the course of the year, but the bottom line is that a LOT of things went right for them. Not that the Giants didn’t have some luck as well, but the Padres of last year and the Padres of this year are totally different teams.

First of all, no Adrian Gonzalez. And I doubt that their big offseason pickup, Orlando Hudson, will have any larger impact on the offense than Will Venable or Chase Headley. Their biggest weakness got a LOT weaker.

Their pitching was great, but let’s examine that a little closer. Are Clayton Richard and Mat Latos legit? I suppose so, but the reality is that they have no track record beyond last year and they folded down the stretch, especially Latos. Yeah, I know. He’d never pitched that deep into a season or thrown that many innings. Well, the same thing could be said about Madison Bumgarner except that he got better and better as the season wore on and saved his best for his last start of the year in the Series against the best offensive team the Giants faced all year. I don’t think that Latos or Richard are one-hit wonders by any means, but Padres fans should be concerned that Latos is getting fucking shelled in Spring Training right now.

As far as how Bumgarner and Posey will respond this year, well I picked Posey for MVP and it won’t surprise me at all if Bumgarner wins 15+ games this year. It would be one thing if these two were Cody Ross-type players who exploded on the national stage after wallowing in anonymity for years. But Posey and Bumgarner are 1st-round picks with amazing track records at every level (including their relatively short length of time in the bigs) that backs up their high talent level and high expectations. Of course they’ll need to make adjustments to continue thriving, but there’s nothing in their track record to suggest that they can’t do so; they’ve done it at every level so far and I think the reality is that the league had better start adjusting to THEM.[/quote]

Ha agreed, the only thing I’ll be thankful for in regards to the Padres is that the Giants won’t have to worry about them since they’re a pretty pathetic looking squad.

I really don’t see people “adjusting” to Posey, he hits for a great average and is fine with any pitch. The “adjusting” argument might work for pure power hitters like Stanton, but not with great all around hitters like Posey.

149

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:
Padres will be last again like everyone predicted last year. They’re a lot worse than the Diamondbacks.[/quote]
[/quote]
That doesn’t make sense since they got second. Be thankful they choked away the end of the season or your Giants wouldn’t have won the World Series. Not saying the Giants didn’t deserve it, but you gotta give credit to the Pads.[/quote]

Us Giants fans don’t have to give shit to the Padres. Sure, they played well over the course of the year, but the bottom line is that a LOT of things went right for them. Not that the Giants didn’t have some luck as well, but the Padres of last year and the Padres of this year are totally different teams.

First of all, no Adrian Gonzalez. And I doubt that their big offseason pickup, Orlando Hudson, will have any larger impact on the offense than Will Venable or Chase Headley. Their biggest weakness got a LOT weaker.

Their pitching was great, but let’s examine that a little closer. Are Clayton Richard and Mat Latos legit? I suppose so, but the reality is that they have no track record beyond last year and they folded down the stretch, especially Latos. Yeah, I know. He’d never pitched that deep into a season or thrown that many innings. Well, the same thing could be said about Madison Bumgarner except that he got better and better as the season wore on and saved his best for his last start of the year in the Series against the best offensive team the Giants faced all year. I don’t think that Latos or Richard are one-hit wonders by any means, but Padres fans should be concerned that Latos is getting fucking shelled in Spring Training right now.

As far as how Bumgarner and Posey will respond this year, well I picked Posey for MVP and it won’t surprise me at all if Bumgarner wins 15+ games this year. It would be one thing if these two were Cody Ross-type players who exploded on the national stage after wallowing in anonymity for years. But Posey and Bumgarner are 1st-round picks with amazing track records at every level (including their relatively short length of time in the bigs) that backs up their high talent level and high expectations. Of course they’ll need to make adjustments to continue thriving, but there’s nothing in their track record to suggest that they can’t do so; they’ve done it at every level so far and I think the reality is that the league had better start adjusting to THEM.[/quote]

Ha agreed, the only thing I’ll be thankful for in regards to the Padres is that the Giants won’t have to worry about them since they’re a pretty pathetic looking squad.

I really don’t see people “adjusting” to Posey, he hits for a great average and is fine with any pitch. The “adjusting” argument might work for pure power hitters like Stanton, but not with great all around hitters like Posey.[/quote]

Not true.

Look at Adam Lind. 2009 Silver Slugger award hit over .300 with 35HRs in his first full season. Then his average plummeted in 2010.

It’s not uncommon as you might think.

150

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:
Padres will be last again like everyone predicted last year. They’re a lot worse than the Diamondbacks.[/quote]
[/quote]
That doesn’t make sense since they got second. Be thankful they choked away the end of the season or your Giants wouldn’t have won the World Series. Not saying the Giants didn’t deserve it, but you gotta give credit to the Pads.[/quote]

Us Giants fans don’t have to give shit to the Padres. Sure, they played well over the course of the year, but the bottom line is that a LOT of things went right for them. Not that the Giants didn’t have some luck as well, but the Padres of last year and the Padres of this year are totally different teams.

First of all, no Adrian Gonzalez. And I doubt that their big offseason pickup, Orlando Hudson, will have any larger impact on the offense than Will Venable or Chase Headley. Their biggest weakness got a LOT weaker.

Their pitching was great, but let’s examine that a little closer. Are Clayton Richard and Mat Latos legit? I suppose so, but the reality is that they have no track record beyond last year and they folded down the stretch, especially Latos. Yeah, I know. He’d never pitched that deep into a season or thrown that many innings. Well, the same thing could be said about Madison Bumgarner except that he got better and better as the season wore on and saved his best for his last start of the year in the Series against the best offensive team the Giants faced all year. I don’t think that Latos or Richard are one-hit wonders by any means, but Padres fans should be concerned that Latos is getting fucking shelled in Spring Training right now.

As far as how Bumgarner and Posey will respond this year, well I picked Posey for MVP and it won’t surprise me at all if Bumgarner wins 15+ games this year. It would be one thing if these two were Cody Ross-type players who exploded on the national stage after wallowing in anonymity for years. But Posey and Bumgarner are 1st-round picks with amazing track records at every level (including their relatively short length of time in the bigs) that backs up their high talent level and high expectations. Of course they’ll need to make adjustments to continue thriving, but there’s nothing in their track record to suggest that they can’t do so; they’ve done it at every level so far and I think the reality is that the league had better start adjusting to THEM.[/quote]

Ha agreed, the only thing I’ll be thankful for in regards to the Padres is that the Giants won’t have to worry about them since they’re a pretty pathetic looking squad.

I really don’t see people “adjusting” to Posey, he hits for a great average and is fine with any pitch. The “adjusting” argument might work for pure power hitters like Stanton, but not with great all around hitters like Posey.[/quote]

Not true.

Look at Adam Lind. 2009 Silver Slugger award hit over .300 with 35HRs in his first full season. Then his average plummeted in 2010.

It’s not uncommon as you might think.[/quote]

So…tell me again how what Adam Lind did in the AL two years ago has any bearing at all on Posey’s 2011 season? Because Lind dropped off we should expect that Posey will too? Of course it’s possible that Posey doesn’t have a good year. He could be a fraud, he could get pretty banged up, he might be a fucking drug addict for all we know. Just don’t point to others’ track records in their sophomore season as a reason why Posey might regress. It’s like saying I shouldn’t go for a drive today because you know several people who have been killed in car accidents.

151

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:
Well look at some of the recent NL ROY’s sophomore campaign’s:

2009 Chris Coughlan - production dropped significantly in 2010

2008 Geovany Soto - production dropped significantly in 2009

2007 Ryan Braun - production increased in 2008

2006 Hanley Ramirez - production increased in 2007

Looking at the ROY list there are quite a few notable players and there are also a bunch of duds. Ichiro Suzuki, Albert Pujols… but also Erik Hinske and Bobby Crosby.

[/quote]

We had this conversation like six months ago. If you’re going to evaluate Posey and Bumgarner’s odds of a repeat performance from last year, look at Posey and Bumgarner. What Eric Hinske did a decade ago has no bearing whatsoever on anything. Neither does anything that Hanley Ramirez or Ryan Braun did a few years ago.[/quote]

I disagree.

Yes nothing a previous ROY did a few years back will have any effect on what Buster does this year. However I would consider it a good comparison and indicator of what COULD happen.

General trends of how players with breakout ROY seasons do in their sophomore year - I would consider that very relevant for a prediction.

152

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:
Padres will be last again like everyone predicted last year. They’re a lot worse than the Diamondbacks.[/quote]
[/quote]
That doesn’t make sense since they got second. Be thankful they choked away the end of the season or your Giants wouldn’t have won the World Series. Not saying the Giants didn’t deserve it, but you gotta give credit to the Pads.[/quote]

Us Giants fans don’t have to give shit to the Padres. Sure, they played well over the course of the year, but the bottom line is that a LOT of things went right for them. Not that the Giants didn’t have some luck as well, but the Padres of last year and the Padres of this year are totally different teams.

First of all, no Adrian Gonzalez. And I doubt that their big offseason pickup, Orlando Hudson, will have any larger impact on the offense than Will Venable or Chase Headley. Their biggest weakness got a LOT weaker.

Their pitching was great, but let’s examine that a little closer. Are Clayton Richard and Mat Latos legit? I suppose so, but the reality is that they have no track record beyond last year and they folded down the stretch, especially Latos. Yeah, I know. He’d never pitched that deep into a season or thrown that many innings. Well, the same thing could be said about Madison Bumgarner except that he got better and better as the season wore on and saved his best for his last start of the year in the Series against the best offensive team the Giants faced all year. I don’t think that Latos or Richard are one-hit wonders by any means, but Padres fans should be concerned that Latos is getting fucking shelled in Spring Training right now.

As far as how Bumgarner and Posey will respond this year, well I picked Posey for MVP and it won’t surprise me at all if Bumgarner wins 15+ games this year. It would be one thing if these two were Cody Ross-type players who exploded on the national stage after wallowing in anonymity for years. But Posey and Bumgarner are 1st-round picks with amazing track records at every level (including their relatively short length of time in the bigs) that backs up their high talent level and high expectations. Of course they’ll need to make adjustments to continue thriving, but there’s nothing in their track record to suggest that they can’t do so; they’ve done it at every level so far and I think the reality is that the league had better start adjusting to THEM.[/quote]

Ha agreed, the only thing I’ll be thankful for in regards to the Padres is that the Giants won’t have to worry about them since they’re a pretty pathetic looking squad.

I really don’t see people “adjusting” to Posey, he hits for a great average and is fine with any pitch. The “adjusting” argument might work for pure power hitters like Stanton, but not with great all around hitters like Posey.[/quote]

Not true.

Look at Adam Lind. 2009 Silver Slugger award hit over .300 with 35HRs in his first full season. Then his average plummeted in 2010.

It’s not uncommon as you might think.[/quote]

For every example you give, I can give a counter example, and there’s no point in that.

Simply stated, I don’t think Posey will pull a Kung Fu Panda, because they are very different types of hitters.

153

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:
Padres will be last again like everyone predicted last year. They’re a lot worse than the Diamondbacks.[/quote]
[/quote]
That doesn’t make sense since they got second. Be thankful they choked away the end of the season or your Giants wouldn’t have won the World Series. Not saying the Giants didn’t deserve it, but you gotta give credit to the Pads.[/quote]

Us Giants fans don’t have to give shit to the Padres. Sure, they played well over the course of the year, but the bottom line is that a LOT of things went right for them. Not that the Giants didn’t have some luck as well, but the Padres of last year and the Padres of this year are totally different teams.

First of all, no Adrian Gonzalez. And I doubt that their big offseason pickup, Orlando Hudson, will have any larger impact on the offense than Will Venable or Chase Headley. Their biggest weakness got a LOT weaker.

Their pitching was great, but let’s examine that a little closer. Are Clayton Richard and Mat Latos legit? I suppose so, but the reality is that they have no track record beyond last year and they folded down the stretch, especially Latos. Yeah, I know. He’d never pitched that deep into a season or thrown that many innings. Well, the same thing could be said about Madison Bumgarner except that he got better and better as the season wore on and saved his best for his last start of the year in the Series against the best offensive team the Giants faced all year. I don’t think that Latos or Richard are one-hit wonders by any means, but Padres fans should be concerned that Latos is getting fucking shelled in Spring Training right now.

As far as how Bumgarner and Posey will respond this year, well I picked Posey for MVP and it won’t surprise me at all if Bumgarner wins 15+ games this year. It would be one thing if these two were Cody Ross-type players who exploded on the national stage after wallowing in anonymity for years. But Posey and Bumgarner are 1st-round picks with amazing track records at every level (including their relatively short length of time in the bigs) that backs up their high talent level and high expectations. Of course they’ll need to make adjustments to continue thriving, but there’s nothing in their track record to suggest that they can’t do so; they’ve done it at every level so far and I think the reality is that the league had better start adjusting to THEM.[/quote]

Ha agreed, the only thing I’ll be thankful for in regards to the Padres is that the Giants won’t have to worry about them since they’re a pretty pathetic looking squad.

I really don’t see people “adjusting” to Posey, he hits for a great average and is fine with any pitch. The “adjusting” argument might work for pure power hitters like Stanton, but not with great all around hitters like Posey.[/quote]

Not true.

Look at Adam Lind. 2009 Silver Slugger award hit over .300 with 35HRs in his first full season. Then his average plummeted in 2010.

It’s not uncommon as you might think.[/quote]

For every example you give, I can give a counter example, and there’s no point in that.

Simply stated, I don’t think Posey will pull a Kung Fu Panda, because they are very different types of hitters.[/quote]

I’m not stating he will slump, I’m saying it’s a realistic possibility.

You guys are all expecting him to be amazing for the rest of his career after ONE great season.

Picking a sophomore as NL MVP (by DB)? Yeah right.

154

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:
Well look at some of the recent NL ROY’s sophomore campaign’s:

2009 Chris Coughlan - production dropped significantly in 2010

2008 Geovany Soto - production dropped significantly in 2009

2007 Ryan Braun - production increased in 2008

2006 Hanley Ramirez - production increased in 2007

Looking at the ROY list there are quite a few notable players and there are also a bunch of duds. Ichiro Suzuki, Albert Pujols… but also Erik Hinske and Bobby Crosby.

[/quote]

We had this conversation like six months ago. If you’re going to evaluate Posey and Bumgarner’s odds of a repeat performance from last year, look at Posey and Bumgarner. What Eric Hinske did a decade ago has no bearing whatsoever on anything. Neither does anything that Hanley Ramirez or Ryan Braun did a few years ago.[/quote]

I disagree.

Yes nothing a previous ROY did a few years back will have any effect on what Buster does this year. However I would consider it a good comparison and indicator of what COULD happen.

General trends of how players with breakout ROY seasons do in their sophomore year - I would consider that very relevant for a prediction.
[/quote]

What COULD happen? Come on. Based on that line of logic, I’m surprised you aren’t saying that it’s possible that Posey bombs out due to drug use, just like Darryl Strawberry or Dwight Gooden, because after all, it COULD happen to Posey because it happened to them.

155

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:
Padres will be last again like everyone predicted last year. They’re a lot worse than the Diamondbacks.[/quote]
[/quote]
That doesn’t make sense since they got second. Be thankful they choked away the end of the season or your Giants wouldn’t have won the World Series. Not saying the Giants didn’t deserve it, but you gotta give credit to the Pads.[/quote]

Us Giants fans don’t have to give shit to the Padres. Sure, they played well over the course of the year, but the bottom line is that a LOT of things went right for them. Not that the Giants didn’t have some luck as well, but the Padres of last year and the Padres of this year are totally different teams.

First of all, no Adrian Gonzalez. And I doubt that their big offseason pickup, Orlando Hudson, will have any larger impact on the offense than Will Venable or Chase Headley. Their biggest weakness got a LOT weaker.

Their pitching was great, but let’s examine that a little closer. Are Clayton Richard and Mat Latos legit? I suppose so, but the reality is that they have no track record beyond last year and they folded down the stretch, especially Latos. Yeah, I know. He’d never pitched that deep into a season or thrown that many innings. Well, the same thing could be said about Madison Bumgarner except that he got better and better as the season wore on and saved his best for his last start of the year in the Series against the best offensive team the Giants faced all year. I don’t think that Latos or Richard are one-hit wonders by any means, but Padres fans should be concerned that Latos is getting fucking shelled in Spring Training right now.

As far as how Bumgarner and Posey will respond this year, well I picked Posey for MVP and it won’t surprise me at all if Bumgarner wins 15+ games this year. It would be one thing if these two were Cody Ross-type players who exploded on the national stage after wallowing in anonymity for years. But Posey and Bumgarner are 1st-round picks with amazing track records at every level (including their relatively short length of time in the bigs) that backs up their high talent level and high expectations. Of course they’ll need to make adjustments to continue thriving, but there’s nothing in their track record to suggest that they can’t do so; they’ve done it at every level so far and I think the reality is that the league had better start adjusting to THEM.[/quote]

Ha agreed, the only thing I’ll be thankful for in regards to the Padres is that the Giants won’t have to worry about them since they’re a pretty pathetic looking squad.

I really don’t see people “adjusting” to Posey, he hits for a great average and is fine with any pitch. The “adjusting” argument might work for pure power hitters like Stanton, but not with great all around hitters like Posey.[/quote]

Not true.

Look at Adam Lind. 2009 Silver Slugger award hit over .300 with 35HRs in his first full season. Then his average plummeted in 2010.

It’s not uncommon as you might think.[/quote]

For every example you give, I can give a counter example, and there’s no point in that.

Simply stated, I don’t think Posey will pull a Kung Fu Panda, because they are very different types of hitters.[/quote]

I’m not stating he will slump, I’m saying it’s a realistic possibility.

You guys are all expecting him to be amazing for the rest of his career after ONE great season.

Picking a sophomore as NL MVP (by DB)? Yeah right.

[/quote]

I know, it’s ridiculous to predict a sophomore will win the MVP. It’s almost as stupid as picking a pitcher with less than a year of big league experience to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards in his first two full years in the bigs.

156

One more thing: here is a partial list of all ROY winners since 1970 in both leagues. One look at this list, by your logic rajraj, makes it painfully apparent that in actuality, it is MUCH more likely that Posey will continue to excel rather than slump.

AL:
Thurman Munson
Carlton Fisk
Fred Lynn
Eddie Murray
Lou Whitaker
Dave Righetti
Cal Ripken, Jr
Ozzie Guillen
Jose Canseco
Mark McGwire
Sandy Alomar, Jr
Chuck Knoblauch
Tim Salmon
Derek Jeter
Nomar Garciaparra
Carlos Beltran
Kaz Sasaki
Ichiro
Huston Street
Justin Verlander
Dustin Pedroia (who also won the MVP in his second year)
Evan Longoria
Andrew Bailey

NL:
Andre Dawson
Rick Sutcliffe
Fernando Valenzuela
Steve Sax
Darryl Strawberry
Dwight Gooden
Vince Coleman
Todd Worrell
Benito Santiago
David Justice
Jeff Bagwell
Eric Karros
Mike Piazza
Scott Rolen
Rafael Furcal
Albert Pujols
Jason Bay
Ryan Howard
Hanley Ramirez
Ryan Braun

So you see rajraj, even by your own flawed logic, the likelihood that Posey drops off isn’t great. There’s a lot of really good ballplayers on that list. I’m not even going back far enough to include players like Willie Mays or Jackie Robinson. You’re incessant clinging to the possibility that Posey drops off smacks of sour grapes from someone who didn’t give the Giants a chance in hell to beat the Phillies OR the Rangers.

157

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:
Padres will be last again like everyone predicted last year. They’re a lot worse than the Diamondbacks.[/quote]
[/quote]
That doesn’t make sense since they got second. Be thankful they choked away the end of the season or your Giants wouldn’t have won the World Series. Not saying the Giants didn’t deserve it, but you gotta give credit to the Pads.[/quote]

Us Giants fans don’t have to give shit to the Padres. Sure, they played well over the course of the year, but the bottom line is that a LOT of things went right for them. Not that the Giants didn’t have some luck as well, but the Padres of last year and the Padres of this year are totally different teams.

First of all, no Adrian Gonzalez. And I doubt that their big offseason pickup, Orlando Hudson, will have any larger impact on the offense than Will Venable or Chase Headley. Their biggest weakness got a LOT weaker.

Their pitching was great, but let’s examine that a little closer. Are Clayton Richard and Mat Latos legit? I suppose so, but the reality is that they have no track record beyond last year and they folded down the stretch, especially Latos. Yeah, I know. He’d never pitched that deep into a season or thrown that many innings. Well, the same thing could be said about Madison Bumgarner except that he got better and better as the season wore on and saved his best for his last start of the year in the Series against the best offensive team the Giants faced all year. I don’t think that Latos or Richard are one-hit wonders by any means, but Padres fans should be concerned that Latos is getting fucking shelled in Spring Training right now.

As far as how Bumgarner and Posey will respond this year, well I picked Posey for MVP and it won’t surprise me at all if Bumgarner wins 15+ games this year. It would be one thing if these two were Cody Ross-type players who exploded on the national stage after wallowing in anonymity for years. But Posey and Bumgarner are 1st-round picks with amazing track records at every level (including their relatively short length of time in the bigs) that backs up their high talent level and high expectations. Of course they’ll need to make adjustments to continue thriving, but there’s nothing in their track record to suggest that they can’t do so; they’ve done it at every level so far and I think the reality is that the league had better start adjusting to THEM.[/quote]

Ha agreed, the only thing I’ll be thankful for in regards to the Padres is that the Giants won’t have to worry about them since they’re a pretty pathetic looking squad.

I really don’t see people “adjusting” to Posey, he hits for a great average and is fine with any pitch. The “adjusting” argument might work for pure power hitters like Stanton, but not with great all around hitters like Posey.[/quote]

Not true.

Look at Adam Lind. 2009 Silver Slugger award hit over .300 with 35HRs in his first full season. Then his average plummeted in 2010.

It’s not uncommon as you might think.[/quote]

For every example you give, I can give a counter example, and there’s no point in that.

Simply stated, I don’t think Posey will pull a Kung Fu Panda, because they are very different types of hitters.[/quote]

I’m not stating he will slump, I’m saying it’s a realistic possibility.

You guys are all expecting him to be amazing for the rest of his career after ONE great season.

Picking a sophomore as NL MVP (by DB)? Yeah right.

[/quote]

I know, it’s ridiculous to predict a sophomore will win the MVP. It’s almost as stupid as picking a pitcher with less than a year of big league experience to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards in his first two full years in the bigs.[/quote]

BOOM.

Such a pessimist rajraj! Come on now.

On another note, would anybody be interested in a T-Nation FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE??

158

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:
Padres will be last again like everyone predicted last year. They’re a lot worse than the Diamondbacks.[/quote]
[/quote]
That doesn’t make sense since they got second. Be thankful they choked away the end of the season or your Giants wouldn’t have won the World Series. Not saying the Giants didn’t deserve it, but you gotta give credit to the Pads.[/quote]

Us Giants fans don’t have to give shit to the Padres. Sure, they played well over the course of the year, but the bottom line is that a LOT of things went right for them. Not that the Giants didn’t have some luck as well, but the Padres of last year and the Padres of this year are totally different teams.

First of all, no Adrian Gonzalez. And I doubt that their big offseason pickup, Orlando Hudson, will have any larger impact on the offense than Will Venable or Chase Headley. Their biggest weakness got a LOT weaker.

Their pitching was great, but let’s examine that a little closer. Are Clayton Richard and Mat Latos legit? I suppose so, but the reality is that they have no track record beyond last year and they folded down the stretch, especially Latos. Yeah, I know. He’d never pitched that deep into a season or thrown that many innings. Well, the same thing could be said about Madison Bumgarner except that he got better and better as the season wore on and saved his best for his last start of the year in the Series against the best offensive team the Giants faced all year. I don’t think that Latos or Richard are one-hit wonders by any means, but Padres fans should be concerned that Latos is getting fucking shelled in Spring Training right now.

As far as how Bumgarner and Posey will respond this year, well I picked Posey for MVP and it won’t surprise me at all if Bumgarner wins 15+ games this year. It would be one thing if these two were Cody Ross-type players who exploded on the national stage after wallowing in anonymity for years. But Posey and Bumgarner are 1st-round picks with amazing track records at every level (including their relatively short length of time in the bigs) that backs up their high talent level and high expectations. Of course they’ll need to make adjustments to continue thriving, but there’s nothing in their track record to suggest that they can’t do so; they’ve done it at every level so far and I think the reality is that the league had better start adjusting to THEM.[/quote]

Ha agreed, the only thing I’ll be thankful for in regards to the Padres is that the Giants won’t have to worry about them since they’re a pretty pathetic looking squad.

I really don’t see people “adjusting” to Posey, he hits for a great average and is fine with any pitch. The “adjusting” argument might work for pure power hitters like Stanton, but not with great all around hitters like Posey.[/quote]

Not true.

Look at Adam Lind. 2009 Silver Slugger award hit over .300 with 35HRs in his first full season. Then his average plummeted in 2010.

It’s not uncommon as you might think.[/quote]

For every example you give, I can give a counter example, and there’s no point in that.

Simply stated, I don’t think Posey will pull a Kung Fu Panda, because they are very different types of hitters.[/quote]

I’m not stating he will slump, I’m saying it’s a realistic possibility.

You guys are all expecting him to be amazing for the rest of his career after ONE great season.

Picking a sophomore as NL MVP (by DB)? Yeah right.

[/quote]

I know, it’s ridiculous to predict a sophomore will win the MVP. It’s almost as stupid as picking a pitcher with less than a year of big league experience to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards in his first two full years in the bigs.[/quote]

BOOM.

Such a pessimist rajraj! Come on now.

On another note, would anybody be interested in a T-Nation FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE??
[/quote]

Yes, very much so. Send me a PM with some info; I’m not well-versed at all in fantasy leagues since I’ve only played in a couple free ones on MLB.com

159

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:
Well look at some of the recent NL ROY’s sophomore campaign’s:

2009 Chris Coughlan - production dropped significantly in 2010

2008 Geovany Soto - production dropped significantly in 2009

2007 Ryan Braun - production increased in 2008

2006 Hanley Ramirez - production increased in 2007

Looking at the ROY list there are quite a few notable players and there are also a bunch of duds. Ichiro Suzuki, Albert Pujols… but also Erik Hinske and Bobby Crosby.

[/quote]

We had this conversation like six months ago. If you’re going to evaluate Posey and Bumgarner’s odds of a repeat performance from last year, look at Posey and Bumgarner. What Eric Hinske did a decade ago has no bearing whatsoever on anything. Neither does anything that Hanley Ramirez or Ryan Braun did a few years ago.[/quote]

I disagree.

Yes nothing a previous ROY did a few years back will have any effect on what Buster does this year. However I would consider it a good comparison and indicator of what COULD happen.

General trends of how players with breakout ROY seasons do in their sophomore year - I would consider that very relevant for a prediction.
[/quote]

What COULD happen? Come on. Based on that line of logic, I’m surprised you aren’t saying that it’s possible that Posey bombs out due to drug use, just like Darryl Strawberry or Dwight Gooden, because after all, it COULD happen to Posey because it happened to them.[/quote]

No you’re taking my argument to absurd levels. I’m talking realistically. A lot of players have bad seasons, most do not bomb out due to drug use come on.

160

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:
Well look at some of the recent NL ROY’s sophomore campaign’s:

2009 Chris Coughlan - production dropped significantly in 2010

2008 Geovany Soto - production dropped significantly in 2009

2007 Ryan Braun - production increased in 2008

2006 Hanley Ramirez - production increased in 2007

Looking at the ROY list there are quite a few notable players and there are also a bunch of duds. Ichiro Suzuki, Albert Pujols… but also Erik Hinske and Bobby Crosby.

[/quote]

We had this conversation like six months ago. If you’re going to evaluate Posey and Bumgarner’s odds of a repeat performance from last year, look at Posey and Bumgarner. What Eric Hinske did a decade ago has no bearing whatsoever on anything. Neither does anything that Hanley Ramirez or Ryan Braun did a few years ago.[/quote]

I disagree.

Yes nothing a previous ROY did a few years back will have any effect on what Buster does this year. However I would consider it a good comparison and indicator of what COULD happen.

General trends of how players with breakout ROY seasons do in their sophomore year - I would consider that very relevant for a prediction.
[/quote]

What COULD happen? Come on. Based on that line of logic, I’m surprised you aren’t saying that it’s possible that Posey bombs out due to drug use, just like Darryl Strawberry or Dwight Gooden, because after all, it COULD happen to Posey because it happened to them.[/quote]

No you’re taking my argument to absurd levels. I’m talking realistically. A lot of players have bad seasons, most do not bomb out due to drug use come on.
[/quote]

It’s not absurd at all. Look at the history of it. It is entirely and very realistically possible that Posey bombs out due to an affinity for cocaine. Steve Howe, the Strawman, Doc Gooden, Orlando Cepeda and Rafael Furcal have all battled substance abuse problems. If you add people like McGwire, Canseco, Raul Mondesi, Benito Santiago and Chuck Knoblauch to the list, based on this there is a very distinct possibility that Posey’s career will follow the same path as these former ROYs and end up derailed or sullied by drug use of some sort.