MLB Playoff Thread 2009

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141

[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:
BONEZ217 wrote:
Ok lets talk stats. These are the Yankees’ stats vs. Lee

Teixeira - 9 for 23, 4 doubles and a homer .391
Swisher - 6 for 18
Arod - 5 for 15, 2 homers
Posada - 6 for 21, 2 homers
Matsui - 7 for 15
Jeter - 11 for 27
Damon - 2 for 22
Cano - 4 for 18

The Phillies don’t have many at bats against CC but these are the numbers

Ibanez - 11 for 40, 2 homers
Rollins - 4 for 11
Howard - 3 for 7
Victorino - 3 for 7
Utley - 0 for 5
Werth - 0 for 6
Feliz - 0 for 6
Ruiz - 2 for 3

Lanky: CC has 3 extra days rest before the series starts. And today Girardi said that he may use a 4th starter. He hasn’t decided yet. There is also one less off day this series. I doubt Lee is going to pitch on three days rest twice in 9 days.

I hate it when the experts start throwing out these stats. The postseason is entirely different so those numbers should be thrown out the door.

What about in the Dodgers vs. Phils series when the Dodgers pitcher Sherill had only given up two homeruns to lefties in the past two years and then he goes and gives up a game changing shot to Ibanez.[/quote]

I think your opinion about stats is a bit off. Stats about one person vs. a large population are generally unreliable in any single situation. Even then there are differing degrees. Stats like OPS and batting average tend to be more accurate than total home runs.

A stat comparing one man to another man, such as a particular batter vs. a particular pitcher is very reliable. Some guys just see the ball better out of certain guys’ hands. There’s no real explanation for it. Pitchers and batters have strengths and weaknesses, obviously. Certain matchups favor one or the other or theyre even. If you have a large enough sample size (could be 10, 25, 50 at bats) it becomes very easy to predict what can happen. If that wasn’t the case scouts wouldn’t get paid.

Most of the Phillies don’t have enough ABs to make a solid prediction against CC. But it’s virtually guarenteed that Matsui will get a hit if he faces Lee 4 times.

Edit
Oh and the other point I wanted to bring up about Ibanez vs. Sherill. It’s not like Ibanez is some scrub. He had one of the best years of his career. And he’s capable of hitting lefties. Most lefties don’t hit lefty pitchers nearly as well as Ibanez, especially for power.

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That may be true, but how many of those at bats have the Yankees had better success off of Lee from earlier in his career when he wasn’t as good as he is now. I know Matsui only has one hit the six times he faced Lee this year. That to me doesn’t guarantee he will get a hit at all. I think if you are going to throw stats out there, it would be more important what the Yankees have done against him recently.

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[quote]strungoutboy21 wrote:
That may be true, but how many of those at bats have the Yankees had better success off of Lee from earlier in his career when he wasn’t as good as he is now. I know Matsui only has one hit the six times he faced Lee this year. That to me doesn’t guarantee he will get a hit at all. I think if you are going to throw stats out there, it would be more important what the Yankees have done against him recently.[/quote]

No, that is not more important. Hitting comes down to averages. Everything evens out in the end. Shrinking the sample size makes it HARDER to predict what will happen, not easier.

Checking how good Matsui did in his last 6 at bats against Lee does NOT show that Lee is ‘hot’ against him or whatever point you were trying to make. He faced him before the allstar break. In the big picture, this years at bats mean just as much as the at bats Matsui got in 2007 (when Lee won the Cy Young). Cliff Lee has been real good for about 2 years. How many of Matsui’s at bats are you going to discount?

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Sabathia won the Cy Young in 2007. Lee was injured on and off throughout the season and I believe even sent down to the minors for a while to work things out. Lee was also left off of the Indians’ post season roster that year. Lee won the Cy Young last year.

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P-H-I-L-L-I-E-S

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[quote]SmilingPolitely wrote:
Sabathia won the Cy Young in 2007. Lee was injured on and off throughout the season and I believe even sent down to the minors for a while to work things out. Lee was also left off of the Indians’ post season roster that year. Lee won the Cy Young last year.

[/quote]

You’re right. My mistake. Confusing 2008 for 2007 really doesn’t change anything about what I said. Lee has still been real good for about 2 years.

These are the numbers from last year against Lee.

Matsui 1 for 3 with a K
Damon 0 for 3
Cano 0 for 3

This stuff all evens out.

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[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:
Ok lets talk stats. These are the Yankees’ stats vs. Lee

Teixeira - 9 for 23, 4 doubles and a homer .391
Swisher - 6 for 18
Arod - 5 for 15, 2 homers
Posada - 6 for 21, 2 homers
Matsui - 7 for 15
Jeter - 11 for 27
Damon - 2 for 22
Cano - 4 for 18

The Phillies don’t have many at bats against CC but these are the numbers

Ibanez - 11 for 40, 2 homers
Rollins - 4 for 11
Howard - 3 for 7
Victorino - 3 for 7
Utley - 0 for 5
Werth - 0 for 6
Feliz - 0 for 6
Ruiz - 2 for 3

Lanky: CC has 3 extra days rest before the series starts. And today Girardi said that he may use a 4th starter. He hasn’t decided yet. There is also one less off day this series. I doubt Lee is going to pitch on three days rest twice in 9 days.
[/quote]

I will admit that stats are not my thing, but if you are going to use them, you need to use them properly.

I was curious why you left out that one of Vic’s hits against C.C. was a grand slam. Turns out you only have the regular season stats and left out what the Phils did against him in the post season last year.

In the NLDS last year:
Feliz: 1 for 2
Howard: 0 for 2
Rollins: 1 for 2 with 1 bb
Utley: 0 for 2 with 1 bb
Ruiz: 0 for 2
Victorino: 2 for 2 with 1 bb and a GS
Werth: 2 for 2
Myers: 1 for 1 with 1 bb (I love that Charlie put him on the WS roster!)

I don’t mean to nit pick here, but you are holding up numbers that are not accurate.

C.C. is certainly a stronger pitcher this year than last, but he was a god going into the NLDS last year and they got to him then.

Bottom line, this is going to be a great series. Both teams are evenly matched but I give the Phillies the advantage; they thrive as the under-dog. I can’t speak for the Yankees’ players, but I know the fans are seriously underestimating the Phils. I say Phils in 6.

148

[quote]SmilingPolitely wrote:
BONEZ217 wrote:
Ok lets talk stats. These are the Yankees’ stats vs. Lee

Teixeira - 9 for 23, 4 doubles and a homer .391
Swisher - 6 for 18
Arod - 5 for 15, 2 homers
Posada - 6 for 21, 2 homers
Matsui - 7 for 15
Jeter - 11 for 27
Damon - 2 for 22
Cano - 4 for 18

The Phillies don’t have many at bats against CC but these are the numbers

Ibanez - 11 for 40, 2 homers
Rollins - 4 for 11
Howard - 3 for 7
Victorino - 3 for 7
Utley - 0 for 5
Werth - 0 for 6
Feliz - 0 for 6
Ruiz - 2 for 3

Lanky: CC has 3 extra days rest before the series starts. And today Girardi said that he may use a 4th starter. He hasn’t decided yet. There is also one less off day this series. I doubt Lee is going to pitch on three days rest twice in 9 days.

I will admit that stats are not my thing, but if you are going to use them, you need to use them properly.

I was curious why you left out that one of Vic’s hits against C.C. was a grand slam. Turns out you only have the regular season stats and left out what the Phils did against him in the post season last year.

In the NLDS last year:
Feliz: 1 for 2
Howard: 0 for 2
Rollins: 1 for 2 with 1 bb
Utley: 0 for 2 with 1 bb
Ruiz: 0 for 2
Victorino: 2 for 2 with 1 bb and a GS
Werth: 2 for 2
Myers: 1 for 1 with 1 bb (I love that Charlie put him on the WS roster!)

I don’t mean to nit pick here, but you are holding up numbers that are not accurate.

C.C. is certainly a stronger pitcher this year than last, but he was a god going into the NLDS last year and they got to him then.

Bottom line, this is going to be a great series. Both teams are evenly matched but I give the Phillies the advantage; they thrive as the under-dog. I can’t speak for the Yankees’ players, but I know the fans are seriously underestimating the Phils. I say Phils in 6.

[/quote]

I made my point about Sabathia making 5 starts when normal rest would have dictated 3. Count the post season stats if you want, by all means. But it certainly doesn’t mean that they hold more weight just because they occured at the same time 1 year ago.

A grand slam isn’t a stat. A home run is a home run. The batter cant control how many men are on base in front of him.

149

[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:
SmilingPolitely wrote:
BONEZ217 wrote:
Ok lets talk stats. These are the Yankees’ stats vs. Lee

Teixeira - 9 for 23, 4 doubles and a homer .391
Swisher - 6 for 18
Arod - 5 for 15, 2 homers
Posada - 6 for 21, 2 homers
Matsui - 7 for 15
Jeter - 11 for 27
Damon - 2 for 22
Cano - 4 for 18

The Phillies don’t have many at bats against CC but these are the numbers

Ibanez - 11 for 40, 2 homers
Rollins - 4 for 11
Howard - 3 for 7
Victorino - 3 for 7
Utley - 0 for 5
Werth - 0 for 6
Feliz - 0 for 6
Ruiz - 2 for 3

Lanky: CC has 3 extra days rest before the series starts. And today Girardi said that he may use a 4th starter. He hasn’t decided yet. There is also one less off day this series. I doubt Lee is going to pitch on three days rest twice in 9 days.

I will admit that stats are not my thing, but if you are going to use them, you need to use them properly.

I was curious why you left out that one of Vic’s hits against C.C. was a grand slam. Turns out you only have the regular season stats and left out what the Phils did against him in the post season last year.

In the NLDS last year:
Feliz: 1 for 2
Howard: 0 for 2
Rollins: 1 for 2 with 1 bb
Utley: 0 for 2 with 1 bb
Ruiz: 0 for 2
Victorino: 2 for 2 with 1 bb and a GS
Werth: 2 for 2
Myers: 1 for 1 with 1 bb (I love that Charlie put him on the WS roster!)

I don’t mean to nit pick here, but you are holding up numbers that are not accurate.

C.C. is certainly a stronger pitcher this year than last, but he was a god going into the NLDS last year and they got to him then.

Bottom line, this is going to be a great series. Both teams are evenly matched but I give the Phillies the advantage; they thrive as the under-dog. I can’t speak for the Yankees’ players, but I know the fans are seriously underestimating the Phils. I say Phils in 6.

I made my point about Sabathia making 5 starts when normal rest would have dictated 3. Count the post season stats if you want, by all means. But it certainly doesn’t mean that they hold more weight just because they occured at the same time 1 year ago.

A grand slam isn’t a stat. A home run is a home run. The batter cant control how many men are on base in front of him. [/quote]

I admittedly got a little over zealous on the grand slam (should have written it down as an HR), but it was a pivotal moment in the game. I have to imagine that was part of the reason why the Post chose Shane to be the one in the cheerleader uniform.

Was there a reason why you chose to leave out the post season stats? Do they hold less weight because it happened a year ago?

150

Yankees in 6

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[quote]SmilingPolitely wrote:
Do they hold less weight because it happened a year ago?[/quote]

No, they just don’t hold weight because 20-30 ABs doesn’t really tell you anything when compared to the totality of a player’s career.

As a whole, players tend to do about as good in the postseason as they do in the regular season. Because there’s such a small sample size in one postseason series, it’s easy to have big fluctuations. As far as predictive power goes, postseason stats are far inferior to regular season stats.

152

[quote]jtrinsey wrote:
SmilingPolitely wrote:
Do they hold less weight because it happened a year ago?

No, they just don’t hold weight because 20-30 ABs doesn’t really tell you anything when compared to the totality of a player’s career.

As a whole, players tend to do about as good in the postseason as they do in the regular season. Because there’s such a small sample size in one postseason series, it’s easy to have big fluctuations. As far as predictive power goes, postseason stats are far inferior to regular season stats.[/quote]

Oh, but stats based on two interleague games is the end all be all?

Explain to me how 7 ABs gives you a better picture of how a team will perform against a pitcher instead of 9 ABs?

153

[quote]SmilingPolitely wrote:
Oh, but stats based on two interleague games is the end all be all?

Explain to me how 7 ABs gives you a better picture of how a team will perform against a pitcher instead of 9 ABs? [/quote]

Perhaps you are misunderstanding my argument or I didn’t make myself clear.

All of these small sample sizes are dumb. If a batter is 10 for 20 against a certain pitcher, it doesn’t necessarily mean he hits that pitcher better; you can’t really say anything with a sample-size is so small.

It’s much more telling to look a player’s total regular season stats (and total career stats) to predict how they will do in the post-season.

154

[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:
And obviously the most telling stat

New York - Jay Z, Nas, Biggie
Philly - Beanie Segal, Will Smith [/quote]

You forgot Meek Millz (philly)

155

[quote]SmilingPolitely wrote:
jtrinsey wrote:
SmilingPolitely wrote:
Do they hold less weight because it happened a year ago?

No, they just don’t hold weight because 20-30 ABs doesn’t really tell you anything when compared to the totality of a player’s career.

As a whole, players tend to do about as good in the postseason as they do in the regular season. Because there’s such a small sample size in one postseason series, it’s easy to have big fluctuations. As far as predictive power goes, postseason stats are far inferior to regular season stats.

Oh, but stats based on two interleague games is the end all be all?

Explain to me how 7 ABs gives you a better picture of how a team will perform against a pitcher instead of 9 ABs? [/quote]

No no definitely not. I, personally, would rather look at 30+ plate appearances before drawing any conclusions. I only brought up the career stats just to add something to the thread. They’re just numbers to look at. So if Utley comes up and goes 3 for 3 against CC you can say he’s broke through against him. And if Teixeira goes 0 for 3 with 3 K’s you may be able to say the Lee was in complete control that night.

I miswrote Matsui’s number’s before. He was 5 for 17, not 7 for 15. I’d still be on him getting a hit though.

156

[quote]jtrinsey wrote:
SmilingPolitely wrote:
Oh, but stats based on two interleague games is the end all be all?

Explain to me how 7 ABs gives you a better picture of how a team will perform against a pitcher instead of 9 ABs?

Perhaps you are misunderstanding my argument or I didn’t make myself clear.

All of these small sample sizes are dumb. If a batter is 10 for 20 against a certain pitcher, it doesn’t necessarily mean he hits that pitcher better; you can’t really say anything with a sample-size is so small.

It’s much more telling to look a player’s total regular season stats (and total career stats) to predict how they will do in the post-season.[/quote]

And my point was that Bonez posted stats that did not include all available information and was therefore flawed. If a player only has a dozen at bats against a pitcher and you leave out 3 you are negating 25% of their at bats; regardless of how small the sample size is.

I am in no way arguing that ABs based on interleague play is going to give you an accurate depiction. I am straight up pointing out that Bonez posted skewed stats.

157

[quote]SmilingPolitely wrote:
jtrinsey wrote:
SmilingPolitely wrote:
Oh, but stats based on two interleague games is the end all be all?

Explain to me how 7 ABs gives you a better picture of how a team will perform against a pitcher instead of 9 ABs?

Perhaps you are misunderstanding my argument or I didn’t make myself clear.

All of these small sample sizes are dumb. If a batter is 10 for 20 against a certain pitcher, it doesn’t necessarily mean he hits that pitcher better; you can’t really say anything with a sample-size is so small.

It’s much more telling to look a player’s total regular season stats (and total career stats) to predict how they will do in the post-season.

And my point was that Bonez posted stats that did not include all available information and was therefore flawed. If a player only has a dozen at bats against a pitcher and you leave out 3 you are negating 25% of their at bats; regardless of how small the sample size is.

I am in no way arguing that ABs based on interleague play is going to give you an accurate depiction. I am straight up pointing out that Bonez posted skewed stats.
[/quote]

Lol my stats aren’t skewed. When someone asks for career stats (not that you did) regular seasons stats are provided. When someone asks for postseason stats, those are provided. They are never combined. I didnt post playoff stats because those numbers are even less representative then the career stats. They can’t be combined though. It is never done that way.

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And here we go

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Lee looks like a father out in the yard showing off for his kids out there.

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Throw all the stats out the door. Cliff Lee was just on tonight. I don’t think it mattered who he was pitching to, he just looked so comfortable out there. That popup that he caught just goes to show you how comfortable he was. What a great pitchers duel ruined by the Yankees bullpen. Go Phils!

Most important stat of the night, Cliff Lee no walks.