[quote]fnf wrote:
I’m a little unfamiliar about pitching rotations. Why isn’t Bumgarner starting?[/quote]
He’s just worn down to much at this point. He’s looked like shit the last month of the season and he got shelled in his two starts this postseason.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
[quote]fnf wrote:
I’m a little unfamiliar about pitching rotations. Why isn’t Bumgarner starting?[/quote]
He’s just worn down to much at this point. He’s looked like shit the last month of the season and he got shelled in his two starts this postseason.[/quote]
You know there was an interesting discussion ESPN the other day about Bumgarner, that perhaps all the extra work he’s gotten early on his career could have irreversibly damaged him. That perhaps he could end up having a Steve Avery type career track and never realize his Cy Young potential.
I learned some interesting facts about him, how inexplicably lost his velocity for 8 months in the minors where it eventually magically came back.
From the Giants perspective, even if this is true they still ended up with a title (may get multiple ones), pennants and of course playoff runs. Most franchises never get to this point.
From Bumgarner’s perspective it must really suck. Just imagine how different his career path would be had he been babied akin to Strasburg’s treatment. Of course this is all speculation, early workloads in his career could not play a factor and he could very well blossom into the ace the Giants are hoping for… or possibly that player never existed in the first place.
[quote]therajraj wrote:
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
[quote]fnf wrote:
I’m a little unfamiliar about pitching rotations. Why isn’t Bumgarner starting?[/quote]
He’s just worn down to much at this point. He’s looked like shit the last month of the season and he got shelled in his two starts this postseason.[/quote]
You know there was an interesting discussion ESPN the other day about Bumgarner, that perhaps all the extra work he’s gotten early on his career could have irreversibly damaged him. That perhaps he could end up having a Steve Avery type career track and never realize his Cy Young potential.
I learned some interesting facts about him, how inexplicably lost his velocity for 8 months in the minors where it eventually magically came back.
From the Giants perspective, even if this is true they still ended up with a title (may get multiple ones), pennants and of course playoff runs. Most franchises never get to this point.
From Bumgarner’s perspective it must really suck. Just imagine how different his career path would be had he been babied akin to Strasburg’s treatment. Of course this is all speculation, early workloads in his career could not play a factor and he could very well blossom into the ace the Giants are hoping for… or possibly that player never existed in the first place.
[/quote]
I don’t know what his deal is, honestly. I was at the game the night he made his first big league start back in September of 2009. He had just turned twenty and when I saw him throw I was like, “that’s it?” He was barely touching 90 and his breaking ball looked a little too loopy and didn’t really snap. I was only about twenty rows from the field right behind the plate, so I had a good view of his stuff.
HOWEVER, his slight crossover step with the lead leg was much more pronounced back then and he made a change in the minors in 2010 that immediately put several mph back on the fastball. By striding more toward the left-hand batter’s box than the plate, he has to throw across his body more and it’s tougher to get the classic hip/shoulder separation during the throwing motion. It was cutting him off a little and he lost velocity as a result.
I don’t think that’s what’s going on here, though it could still be a mechanical issue that has led to the drop in velocity. I had to listen to the beginning of both games he started on the radio, so I didn’t actually see him throw this postseason.
I tend to think he’s just worn down and tired this year. He’s a big boy with pretty sound mechanics that aren’t very stressful on his arm at all, so I tend to think it’s fatigue and not injury. All pitchers go through a dead-arm phase, and he may just be going through it at the most inopportune time of the year.
I don’t think Bumgarner is nearly as overused as ESPN might think, and ESPN doesn’t know shit from Shinola anyways. First of all, the guy doesn’t walk hitters and never has in the bigs. He’s pretty much ALWAYS right around the plate, which keeps the pitch count down and it indicates that he isn’t throwing with maximum effort either. While he does give up his share of hits as a result of being around the plate so much, his motion out of the stretch is much less stressful than a righthanders since he’s facing first base and can use a high leg kick, which he always uses. Bumgarner rarely if ever uses anything resembling a slide step, which again makes the throwing motion easier and less stressful.
Also, he only threw 111 innings at the major league level in 2010, plus, what, about 15-20 more in the postseason? That’s not that much at all. Granted, he did throw 82 innings in the minors that year as well, so he ended up throwing over 200 innings, which is a large jump from the 142 he threw the previous year. But he never showed any signs of being tired in 2010. His best two starts of the year were his last two. And considering how dominant he was in the minors that year, those 82 innings aren’t nearly as taxing as 82 major-league innings. In 2011 he actually threw slightly less innings than in 2010 (213 to 204) and he threw 208 this year. So he’s been throwing this much for three straight years now and this is the first time he’s shown any signs of fatigue at all. I’m not worried about overuse.
Matt Cain threw 190 innings in his first full year in the bigs when he was only 21 and he’s thrown 200+ innings every year since then. And since his big league debut in 2005, Cain hasn’t missed a single start and has never had an injury of any sort whatsoever (knock on wood). Bumgarner is the same. He hasn’t missed a start in his big league career due to injury or anything else. They have similar builds, different but very good mechanics, they are compact and fluid out of the stretch and they don’t walk batters.
If it turns out that Bumgarner really is injured, I’d be mildly shocked. I wouldn’t be totally shocked since injuries happen to pitchers all the time and it’s rare to have three guys in the rotation who have never had a single arm issue/injury in their entire careers, including the minors (Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner). But I doubt it’s anything more than a combination of him just struggling at the moment and being a little tired. Perhaps all he needs to do is get into better shape for next year and he’ll be fine. Maybe lose 10 lbs. He’s 6’3" 235 as it is. Cain’s a big boy and I think he’s more like 215-220.
I think Bumgarner doesn’t really have the stuff to be a top 5 pitcher, or maybe even a top 10 pitcher, but I think he’ll turn out to be a very solid #2 guy for most of his career. And I don’t think he’ll miss a start due to injury for a long time.
Are there any Cardinals fans on this site? Anyone who really hates the Giants with an unnatural passion?
I’d like to make an avatar bet with anyone that does. They have to use my avatar until Thanksgiving Day if the Giants win Game 7 tomorrow and I’ll sport whatever avatar you want if they lose. I figure the odds have to be with the Giants at this point, so my rather harmless avatar being up against a potentially-horrifc one evens out the betting odds.
Any takers? And I’ll bet right now that the Giants win the World Series, so if they lose tomorrow I’ll lose that bet as well. And for this much larger wager, in which the odds are decidedly against me considering they aren’t even IN the Series yet, I will put up any avatar of my choice against any avatar of any taker’s choice if the Giants do not win the Series. The loser must use the avatar from the end of the Series until New Year’s Day.
If I have two bets going, one on each proposition and with two different people, I will use the avatar from the first bet until Thanksgiving and I’ll use the avatar from the second bet until St. Patrick’s Day, provided I lose the bet.
Any takers? C’mon Raj, I know you want a piece of me after losing, what, every avatar bet you’ve ever made with me? Take a whack at the big one. Giants win the Series and you sport ANY avatar of my choice. Hell, I’ll even promise to exclude gay shit since that makes you really uncomfortable.
According to a Giants source, Bumgarner has been working out a mechanical issue and is good to go. Apparently Lincecum would have received the nod over Bumgarner if one of them was needed in long relief in Game 6, and at least partially because the Cardinals kill lefties, even though it would have meant throwing Lincecum on two days’ rest (although his start was very short).
Also, if the Giants had used Bumgarner for extensive innings they wouldn’t have any rested starters available for Game 2 of the World Series.
Unsettling fact of the day: The NY/SF Giants have never won a Game 7. Ever.
If it rains tonight as it is expected and the game is postponed, Cards will throw out Wainright on full rest instead of Lohse.
Meh
Let’s bet on the World Series. I’ll take the Tigers you take the NL team.
[quote]therajraj wrote:
If it rains tonight as it is expected and the game is postponed, Cards will throw out Wainright on full rest instead of Lohse.
[/quote]
The weather report is not for rain during the game. There’s only a 30% chance, and any devotee to the Weather Channel knows that 30% may as well be 3%. I think the rain has already subsided and won’t be back until about 9 or 10pm, PCT.
[quote]therajraj wrote:
Meh
Let’s bet on the World Series. I’ll take the Tigers you take the NL team.[/quote]
No, I only gamble when I’m emotionally invested in the game. If the Giants lose tonight I could care less what happens in the World Series. My avatar against yours that the Giants win the Series. This offer expires 30 minutes prior to game time.
Alright then lets bet if the Giants win tonight.
I find NL ball a little boring for the simple fact I don’t know the players that well
[quote]therajraj wrote:
Alright then lets bet if the Giants win tonight.
I find NL ball a little boring for the simple fact I don’t know the players that well[/quote]
I’m going to refer to this quote any time you and I find ourselves in an argument about players from the NL. You just made every argument you ever made about the NL MVP Award sound even stupider than they already were.
No, we bet NOW, regardless of whether the Giants win or not. I will put up an avatar of my choice from here until New Year’s Day that the Giants win the Series. You lose, you sport my avatar until New Year’s Day. And that doesn’t necessarily mean MY avatar, just one of my choosing.
If you want to wager avatars on this game as well, fine, but I will only use your avatar if I lose until Thanksgiving and vice versa.
I will not gamble on the World Series unless it means gambling that the Giants win it before the start of tonight’s game. Sack up you fucking pussy. You’re getting pretty damn good odds here.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
I’m going to refer to this quote any time you and I find ourselves in an argument about players from the NL. You just made every argument you ever made about the NL MVP Award sound even stupider than they already were…
[/quote]
Nope.
My arguments are 95% numbers based. I don’t need to see them play to know how they contributed. I don’t value intangibles the same way you do.
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
No, we bet NOW, regardless of whether the Giants win or not. I will put up an avatar of my choice from here until New Year’s Day that the Giants win the Series. You lose, you sport my avatar until New Year’s Day. And that doesn’t necessarily mean MY avatar, just one of my choosing.
If you want to wager avatars on this game as well, fine, but I will only use your avatar if I lose until Thanksgiving and vice versa.
I will not gamble on the World Series unless it means gambling that the Giants win it before the start of tonight’s game. Sack up you fucking pussy. You’re getting pretty damn good odds here.
[/quote]
Not sure if I’ll even be able to watch the game tonight.
I could bet you but it ultimately be pointless.
Say things were flipped around. The Giants were eliminated while the Blue Jays and Chi Sox were playing an ALCS game 7 tonight.
How motivated would you be to bet?
If I take this game 7 bet with you, I really wouldn’t care, maybe be mildly annoyed. That’s why I’m kinda excited for 2013 when the Jays and Giants play a series. At least I’ll be happy/pissed if I win/lose.
If you want to bet keys do it but only a month. Lets make a l
Lets make a longer bet when we both actually care about the result
[quote]therajraj wrote:
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
I’m going to refer to this quote any time you and I find ourselves in an argument about players from the NL. You just made every argument you ever made about the NL MVP Award sound even stupider than they already were…
[/quote]
Nope.
My arguments are 95% numbers based. I don’t need to see them play to know how they contributed. I don’t value intangibles the same way you do.
[.[/quote]
The fact that you would post that you don’t need to see players play in order to understand their contributions tells me all I need to know about your grasp of the game of baseball. You don’t understand it AT ALL from an intangible aspect because you never played the game.
ALL SPORTS are about the intangibles! What don’t you understand about this?!?!?!? The Intangibles are why the U.S. beat the USSR in hockey, they’re why the Red Sox came back from a three-game deficit to beat the Yankees in 2004’s ALCS, they’re why the Niners were much better than expectations last year, they’re why the Giants and Cardinals defeated several “superior” teams on their way to the World Series title the last two years, they’re why WE PLAY THE GAME. Intangibles are why teams that are superior on paper end up getting beat in the playoffs all the time.
The fact that the two teams with the two worst records of the ten playoff teams this year might end up in the World Series speaks volumes about intangibles. Sports are played by human beings, people who are not infallible, people who are not perfect and people who respond to pressure situations in myriad ways. If you don’t understand the intangible aspect of sports, and if you don’t place extremely high value on them, then you don’t understand sports at all. Sports aren’t a fucking video game that gets programmed by a computer or something like that. The intangibles explain EVERYTHING that statistics cannot explain about the game and statistics don’t explain very much.
Statistics only explain what has already happened, and to a much less accurate extent, what can be expected to happen in the future. They don’t explain causality at all. They don’t explain WHY something happened. Watching the game DOES explain that.
The fact that your arguments are 95% numbers-based means that your arguments are 100% BULLSHIT! This is why I hate sabermetrics. They allow people like you who have never played a single inning of competitive baseball in their lives to think they’ve got the game figured out. The fact is that a psychologist who has never even heard of baseball understands more about the game than you do.
I don’t even know why you’d bother ever coming back into this thread after an ignorant statement like that. What do you think baseball is, a computer program? Just punch the right numbers in, press “Enter” and voila! Everything you need to know about the game quantified right in front of you with absolute certainty.
[quote]therajraj wrote:
I could bet you but it ultimately be pointless.
Say things were flipped around. The Giants were eliminated while the Blue Jays and Chi Sox were playing an ALCS game 7 tonight.
How motivated would you be to bet?
If I take this game 7 bet with you, I really wouldn’t care, maybe be mildly annoyed. That’s why I’m kinda excited for 2013 when the Jays and Giants play a series. At least I’ll be happy/pissed if I win/lose.[/quote]
You being in this thread is pointless. Get the fuck outta here with your saber metric bullshit. Anyone who would openly admit that they think they can understand the game just fine without actually WATCHING IT has no place whatsoever in a thread for baseball fans.
Vanish.
Jesus Christ, the Giants are getting every break possible in this game. Better to be lucky than good, but like I always say, the better team usually makes itself lucky because luck is not an entirely random sequence of events that happen for no reason.
Put a fork in the Cardinals, they are done. No way they are coming back down six runs. Their pitching and defense has been garbage. Hopefully the World Series will be better than these two championship series. Even though the NL series went seven games, only two games were actually close.