[quote]JEATON wrote:
Market is giving me an ulcer right now. I am getting the sell offs that I am expecting, but hen we get these snap back rallies based on rumor and other BS. Does not “feel” right. If I had a bit more conspiracy theorist in me I would blame it on Ben’s plunge protection team.
There is a chart formation illustrated in Elliot Wave that “may” explain this type of behavior. A series of 1’s and 2’s that beat the crap out of everyone, with an ultimate 3 down flush that catches everyone off balance. I am not saying this is the case. Just trying to make sense out of this nonsensical market action. [/quote]
My gut feeling tells me that as it falls there are some institutions that have cherry picked stocks they want to pick up at certain valuations because they believe that things will get worse but not much worse. These are pulling averages back from plunges but aren’t enough to push the DOW over 10,500 either.
[quote]JEATON wrote:
Market is giving me an ulcer right now. I am getting the sell offs that I am expecting, but hen we get these snap back rallies based on rumor and other BS. Does not “feel” right. If I had a bit more conspiracy theorist in me I would blame it on Ben’s plunge protection team.
There is a chart formation illustrated in Elliot Wave that “may” explain this type of behavior. A series of 1’s and 2’s that beat the crap out of everyone, with an ultimate 3 down flush that catches everyone off balance. I am not saying this is the case. Just trying to make sense out of this nonsensical market action. [/quote]
My gut feeling tells me that as it falls there are some institutions that have cherry picked stocks they want to pick up at certain valuations because they believe that things will get worse but not much worse. These are pulling averages back from plunges but aren’t enough to push the DOW over 10,500 either.[/quote]
A reasonable hypothesis. I have nothing better at this time. Time always tells.
"The Securities and Exchange Commission voted on Wednesday to limit short-selling of stocks that are falling rapidly in price, The New York Timesâ??s Floyd Norris reports. The rule was adopted on a 3-to-2 vote, with the two Republican members saying that no case had been made to justify any further action against short-selling.
The limits would apply to any stock whose price has fallen at least 10 percent during a dayâ??s session. After that, short-selling would still be legal but not unless the sale was at a price higher than the best bid price then available.
The S.E.C. chairwoman, Mary L. Schapiro, said the rule would force short sellers to stand in the back of the line, unable to sell shares until all actual owners who wanted to sell had been able to do so.
â??The reason this rule makes sense is because it recognizes that short-selling can potentially have both a beneficial and a harmful impact on the market,â?? she said in a statement."
Have you guys considered investing in silver? Bear with me and read this:
"One of my earliest lectures, which I still do from time to time, is about the gold-silver ratio. If you go from the 12th century, it’s a 12:1 ratio, which was exactly the natural ratio at that time. In other words, 12 ounces of silver in the ground for every ounce of gold, and that’s basically how it was mined up to about the 17th century.
So the market figured out that 12:1 ratio, and it held up for centuries. We got to the monetary ratio when England was having a problem similar to what the world economy is having today, and during the turmoil of a currency crisis Sir Isaac Newton told the Bank of England to go on a gold standard and they did. He said the correct silver to gold ratio in the new monetary regime was 15.5:1â??where the market was at that point. This ratio, roughly 16:1, remained static for hundreds of years."
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
Have you guys considered investing in silver? Bear with me and read this:
"One of my earliest lectures, which I still do from time to time, is about the gold-silver ratio. If you go from the 12th century, it’s a 12:1 ratio, which was exactly the natural ratio at that time. In other words, 12 ounces of silver in the ground for every ounce of gold, and that’s basically how it was mined up to about the 17th century.
So the market figured out that 12:1 ratio, and it held up for centuries. We got to the monetary ratio when England was having a problem similar to what the world economy is having today, and during the turmoil of a currency crisis Sir Isaac Newton told the Bank of England to go on a gold standard and they did. He said the correct silver to gold ratio in the new monetary regime was 15.5:1â??where the market was at that point. This ratio, roughly 16:1, remained static for hundreds of years."
Gold is now over $1000 and silver is under $20, for a ratio of over 50 to 1.
If silver moves anywhere near its ratio, based on hundreds of years of history, silver would soar, even if gold remained flat.
I think there’s a pretty good floor under the price.
[/quote]
While I think gold is not the universal antidote that some people seem to view it as I do think that ratios between related commodities do have real investing value.
If I believed that gold would remain flat i would be very tempted to buy silver.
Looks like Jeaton extended his vacation. Hopefully I can get the ball rolling again but, as usual, I’ll probably kill it.
The market has moved up 5 days in a row and was kicked off by a key reversal. The S&P has set a new short term high. While the true test will be if the S&P can get over 1150, I’m going to go ahead and declare this correction over & done with. The mid-term bull market we’ve been enjoying is alive and well. I’m going to begin the process of reentering the market.
The Case for Japanese Small Stocks (world’s cheapest stock market):
Div 2.36% Price to Book .83 Price to Sales .4
These numbers are far better than any other market in the world. May I also add that a price to book of .83 means that you can buy $1 of assets for 83 cents?
Hi everyone.
Sorry for the delay. Last Wed., before leaving for vacation, I sent my Mac to the shop for some upgrades and tuneup. Friday, while on vacation, my laptop melted down. Therefore, I am computerless until one or both get back from the shop. I have limited access otherwise.
Short catchup. My stop losses took me out of the market last Thursday. I continue to watch the charts. My theory is that the overall trend is down, with the last several weeks being an expanded upward flat. Yesterday we hit a 78.2% Fibonacci retracement and sold off. I reentered short at that point. I will maintain tight stops. Today and tomorrow will be telling.
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
The Case for Japanese Small Stocks (world’s cheapest stock market):
Div 2.36% Price to Book .83 Price to Sales .4
These numbers are far better than any other market in the world. May I also add that a price to book of .83 means that you can buy $1 of assets for 83 cents?
[quote]on edge wrote:
Looks like Jeaton extended his vacation. Hopefully I can get the ball rolling again but, as usual, I’ll probably kill it.
The market has moved up 5 days in a row and was kicked off by a key reversal. The S&P has set a new short term high. While the true test will be if the S&P can get over 1150, I’m going to go ahead and declare this correction over & done with. The mid-term bull market we’ve been enjoying is alive and well. I’m going to begin the process of reentering the market.[/quote]
I still think we are going to see the DOW trade between 10,000-10500 in the near term. So many doom and gloomers are focused on the US but the real trainwreck is in the EU. That said if you stick to a handful of stocks you can make some decent returns trading the fluctuations.
I still think we are going to see the DOW trade between 10,000-10500 in the near term. So many doom and gloomers are focused on the US but the real trainwreck is in the EU. That said if you stick to a handful of stocks you can make some decent returns trading the fluctuations.[/quote]
Reverse that, too many people are looking at Europe when California is about to go bankrupt.
I still think we are going to see the DOW trade between 10,000-10500 in the near term. So many doom and gloomers are focused on the US but the real trainwreck is in the EU. That said if you stick to a handful of stocks you can make some decent returns trading the fluctuations.[/quote]
Reverse that, too many people are looking at Europe when California is about to go bankrupt.[/quote]
That may be true but I still think the Euro markets are the bigger problem, look at Illinois, it already is bankrupt. Now in Europe we have Greece (the biggest problem), Spain, and Portugal that are doing so poorly that the Euro is being affected for everyone.
I’d like to see the DOW hit over the 10500 mark, but it seems lately that it has been holding steadily around 10400. I think this is because not only are people are struggling in the economy, but Wall Street realizes that our economy is still vulnerable and can easily turn upside down. Am I right? Please let me know, I’d like to discuss this and learn.
I still think we are going to see the DOW trade between 10,000-10500 in the near term. So many doom and gloomers are focused on the US but the real trainwreck is in the EU. That said if you stick to a handful of stocks you can make some decent returns trading the fluctuations.[/quote]
Reverse that, too many people are looking at Europe when California is about to go bankrupt.[/quote]
That may be true but I still think the Euro markets are the bigger problem, look at Illinois, it already is bankrupt. Now in Europe we have Greece (the biggest problem), Spain, and Portugal that are doing so poorly that the Euro is being affected for everyone.
I’d like to see the DOW hit over the 10500 mark, but it seems lately that it has been holding steadily around 10400. I think this is because not only are people are struggling in the economy, but Wall Street realizes that our economy is still vulnerable and can easily turn upside down. Am I right? Please let me know, I’d like to discuss this and learn. :)[/quote]
Oh, you are right. While I think the market will be going up, there is only so far it can go until too many smart people start slipping out the back door.
I still think we are going to see the DOW trade between 10,000-10500 in the near term. So many doom and gloomers are focused on the US but the real trainwreck is in the EU. That said if you stick to a handful of stocks you can make some decent returns trading the fluctuations.[/quote]
Reverse that, too many people are looking at Europe when California is about to go bankrupt.[/quote]
That may be true but I still think the Euro markets are the bigger problem, look at Illinois, it already is bankrupt. Now in Europe we have Greece (the biggest problem), Spain, and Portugal that are doing so poorly that the Euro is being affected for everyone.
I’d like to see the DOW hit over the 10500 mark, but it seems lately that it has been holding steadily around 10400. I think this is because not only are people are struggling in the economy, but Wall Street realizes that our economy is still vulnerable and can easily turn upside down. Am I right? Please let me know, I’d like to discuss this and learn. :)[/quote]
Oh, you are right. While I think the market will be going up, there is only so far it can go until too many smart people start slipping out the back door.[/quote]
What do you mean by slipping out the back door?
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
The Case for Japanese Small Stocks (world’s cheapest stock market):
Div 2.36% Price to Book .83 Price to Sales .4
These numbers are far better than any other market in the world. May I also add that a price to book of .83 means that you can buy $1 of assets for 83 cents?
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
The Case for Japanese Small Stocks (world’s cheapest stock market):
Div 2.36% Price to Book .83 Price to Sales .4
These numbers are far better than any other market in the world. May I also add that a price to book of .83 means that you can buy $1 of assets for 83 cents?
Although very leery of stocks right now, I did just put a goodly chunk into Fidelity’s Japan Smaller Companies fund, to ameliorate risk.
[/quote]
The Japanesse econmy is a trainwreck and has been moribund for years.
Sometimes things are cheap for a reason.
[/quote]
My best friend told me the same thing in 2001, when I loaded up on gold and mining stocks. Gold was $270 per ounce.
Buy when the blood is running in the streets.
[/quote]
Thats actually a good axiom for investing but in this case there has been blood in the streets for two decades. Even more importantly, you think the US is in terrible shape and it makes up around 16% of Japanese trade. The EU is in far worse shape than the US and Japan also gets a large amount of trade from there. China’s issues are just starting to emerge so who are the Japanese copmpanies going to be selling to if thigns are as bad as you say.
In any case why would anyone who claims to know anything about investing buy into a mutual fund and let someone else do their stock picking?
Metals have done okay since 2001 but no where near as good as other things. Now buying Apple in 2001 would have been something to brag about and no I didn’t buy it then either.
I still think we are going to see the DOW trade between 10,000-10500 in the near term. So many doom and gloomers are focused on the US but the real trainwreck is in the EU. That said if you stick to a handful of stocks you can make some decent returns trading the fluctuations.[/quote]
Reverse that, too many people are looking at Europe when California is about to go bankrupt.[/quote]
That may be true but I still think the Euro markets are the bigger problem, look at Illinois, it already is bankrupt. Now in Europe we have Greece (the biggest problem), Spain, and Portugal that are doing so poorly that the Euro is being affected for everyone.
I’d like to see the DOW hit over the 10500 mark, but it seems lately that it has been holding steadily around 10400. I think this is because not only are people are struggling in the economy, but Wall Street realizes that our economy is still vulnerable and can easily turn upside down. Am I right? Please let me know, I’d like to discuss this and learn. :)[/quote]
Oh, you are right. While I think the market will be going up, there is only so far it can go until too many smart people start slipping out the back door.[/quote]
What do you mean by slipping out the back door?[/quote]
What I mean is smart people will be selling as the prices go up. People ‘in the know’ will no longer be buying and holding as they know the US stock markets have reached a long term high (I believe the reasons have been discussed in this thread). The S&P 500 won’t be north of 1600 in the next decade. So, play the trends but don’t have a long term mentality unless you are investing in SE Asia or possibly Healthcare & Energy.
