A) Doesn’t really worry me, the average American is almost always wrong so I take these numbers with a grain of salt. Even more importanly what most people say has little to no bearing on what they are actually going to do.
B) Expected and not good but what I really want to hear is if new construcion starts are down. I think the lower those go the more positive that is for the housing market. Not housing employment, though.
C) Thats bad for the economy as a whole but good for banks that are on the edge. I think the low price spec bank stocks are the ones that get the most benefit out of that. The are keeping more cash closer to the vest.
Going to the doctor is like going to the IRS these days.
Day 25
I took a few moments to look over the markets. Using the 10 day NYSE closing ticks, we are the most overbought that we have been since Sept 16, 2009.
We are continuing a pattern of rising volume on declines and contracting volume on rallies, which would seem to indicate little conviction in the rallies. The charts are choppy and overlapping, which indicate a corrective movement counter to larger trend.
Translated, I still expect a rather large downward move from at or near present levels. I will, however, hold off on building upon my short position until we break Monday’s lows. This would indicate to me that the sell off has begun. If we surpass Monday’s highs, 10438 Dow, 1112 S&P 500, then the correction has further to go and I will reevaluate.
On this site in the past I’ve ripped on the biotech sector as always having a great sales pitch but never delivering. In the past couple of months I’ve been watching a biotech index fund closely and been very impressed. The fund is FBT and coming off the 2008 lows it reached new highs before the recent correction began. To my knowledge this is the only sector that has done so. Not only that, it has also continued to climb during this correction.
I’m not a buyer, as I find the market too scary right now and a big move down will eventually take biotechs with it. However, when I feel it’s safe to dip my toes back in, this will be the first place that gets my cash. Even before any S.E. Asia sector, which has been my favorite for the past year.
[quote]John S. wrote:
The stock market is getting destroyed today, yet gold is going up?
JEATON what is your take on this? I am seeing this as the beginning of gold decoupling from the stock market, whats your opinion on this phenomenon. [/quote]
Getting destroyed? I just checked the S&P is down 1.4%. Seems pretty tame but we’ll see where it heads.
Gold may be up slightly today, but the chart clearly shows gold is in a down trend, whereas the chart for the S&P 500 is still undesided
[quote]John S. wrote:
The stock market is getting destroyed today, yet gold is going up?
JEATON what is your take on this? I am seeing this as the beginning of gold decoupling from the stock market, whats your opinion on this phenomenon. [/quote]
Getting destroyed? I just checked the S&P is down 1.4%. Seems pretty tame but we’ll see where it heads.
Gold may be up slightly today, but the chart clearly shows gold is in a down trend, whereas the chart for the S&P 500 is still undesided[/quote]
Gold is out preforming the S$P 500, Gold is in a very tight range right now. The fact that gold is going up when the market is going down tells me there is a big movement coming in gold soon.
I should probably elaborate on these charts so you guys know exactly what I’m trying to show.
Gold over the last 3 months has had a sucession of lower highs and lower lows. This is a downtrend. The S&P hit a revovery high right at the beginning of February then, about a week ago, it hit another revovery high that was actually a little bit higher than the one at the start of the month. In my opinion the S&P needs to drop below about 1050 or go above 1150 before we know what direction it has chosen.
[quote]John S. wrote:
The stock market is getting destroyed today, yet gold is going up?
JEATON what is your take on this? I am seeing this as the beginning of gold decoupling from the stock market, whats your opinion on this phenomenon. [/quote]
Getting destroyed? I just checked the S&P is down 1.4%. Seems pretty tame but we’ll see where it heads.
Gold may be up slightly today, but the chart clearly shows gold is in a down trend, whereas the chart for the S&P 500 is still undecided[/quote]
Gold is out preforming the S$P 500, Gold is in a very tight range right now. The fact that gold is going up when the market is going down tells me there is a big movement coming in gold soon.
[/quote]
An established trend-line holds much more weight than a one day occurrence.
[quote]Therizza wrote:
can you just tell me what the next bubble is gonna be? lol
is twitter going public worth a look?[/quote]
Q3 is when there is a lot of Arms reseting both in the housing market and the Commercial real estate market, this is most likely when the crash is going to happen.
I have a little money to invest in a TFSA account (Tax Free Savings Account here in Canada). I am more an investor than trader like you are. Missed my chance to invest when the markets picked up this summer but looking to get back in. Markets are looking shaky right now that’s for sure so I might hold off for a little bit.
Although the popular opinion is that the price of gold will go up (rightfully so with recent news), wouldn’t be surprised if it dropped down some more (at least short term), look at what happened to the price of oil not many predicted. I also find that stocks usually do well in the spring. That being said, I’m following the price of gold and looking to buy some gold stocks right now. Great thread again.
[quote]John S. wrote:
The stock market is getting destroyed today, yet gold is going up?
JEATON what is your take on this? I am seeing this as the beginning of gold decoupling from the stock market, whats your opinion on this phenomenon. [/quote]
For what it’s worth, I think Gold is still in a down trend. Nothing, however, goes in a straight line. Gold is due a little retracement. I am still not interested in being a buyer of Gold.
As always, it is only an opinion. I just don’t buy into the gold story at this point.
[quote]John S. wrote:
The stock market is getting destroyed today, yet gold is going up?
JEATON what is your take on this? I am seeing this as the beginning of gold decoupling from the stock market, whats your opinion on this phenomenon. [/quote]
Getting destroyed? I just checked the S&P is down 1.4%. Seems pretty tame but we’ll see where it heads.
Gold may be up slightly today, but the chart clearly shows gold is in a down trend, whereas the chart for the S&P 500 is still undesided[/quote]
I would not read too much into this as of yet. Markets couple and decouple all the time. If gold surpassed the Jan 11-12 high then I would start to worry about a big move up.
Gold is out preforming the S$P 500, Gold is in a very tight range right now. The fact that gold is going up when the market is going down tells me there is a big movement coming in gold soon.
[/quote]
Market is giving me an ulcer right now. I am getting the sell offs that I am expecting, but hen we get these snap back rallies based on rumor and other BS. Does not “feel” right. If I had a bit more conspiracy theorist in me I would blame it on Ben’s plunge protection team.
There is a chart formation illustrated in Elliot Wave that “may” explain this type of behavior. A series of 1’s and 2’s that beat the crap out of everyone, with an ultimate 3 down flush that catches everyone off balance. I am not saying this is the case. Just trying to make sense out of this nonsensical market action.
[quote]John S. wrote:
The stock market is getting destroyed today, yet gold is going up?
JEATON what is your take on this? I am seeing this as the beginning of gold decoupling from the stock market, whats your opinion on this phenomenon. [/quote]
For what it’s worth, I think Gold is still in a down trend. Nothing, however, goes in a straight line. Gold is due a little retracement. I am still not interested in being a buyer of Gold.
As always, it is only an opinion. I just don’t buy into the gold story at this point. [/quote]
I honestly find Gold to be a very over rated investment.
If I was to invest in something like that it would be copper, or oil. Stuff that you can actually use to make things that people need. Not to mention the fact that everyone knows about Gold and it has become such a main stream investment makes me very cautious towards it.
Perhaps it is just the contrarian investor in me.
