Luck - What Do You Conceive It To Be?

[attydeb2005]

“I’m a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it.” Thomas Jefferson

Similar to the preparation/opportunity quote above. I agree with DB that some tend to diminish others’ accomplishments by labeling them as “lucky.” I don’t consider myself to be lucky. I have a fantastic life. Because I work my ass off to make it so. Because I am always open to opportunity.

It’s been said of some, if he didn’t have bad luck, he’d have no luck at all. I think it’s a choice and a mind set.

[ukrainian]

[quote]Fuzzyapple wrote:

-Are people lucky to survive a shark attack or was it by chance the shark didn’t bite the victim’s head off?
[/quote]

Or are they unlucky because they got attacked by a shark?

[Brother_Chris]

[quote]BruceLeeFan wrote:

[quote]Brother Chris wrote:

[quote]BruceLeeFan wrote:
I still sort of think luck is a combination of probability and subjective perspective. Basically it is pretty much perceived in my opinion.

If luck were real we have never truly been unlucky.
How many people born each year will make it to 1 years old, 10 years old, 50 years old?
Odds are not many. The few that do make it could be perceived as lucky but most of the time people die because of some illness which is all attached to probability based on how they live, where they live, genetics and so on.

Cause and effect has no room for luck.[/quote]

Really the Odds are not many? So the majority of people die before they are 1, 10, 50 years old?[/quote]
I don’t know the odds off hand. I think the first few years as an infant death rate is still pretty high in the west.
[/quote]

6.9 per 1000

But think about it like this…

Most old people know each other… It seems odd from a young mans perspective.

I think that is the degradation of our communities. I know everyone in my community. However, I lived in an immigrant neighborhood. Americans don’t want to know their neighbors.

We may know a lot of people but there is no way we know all of the young people in our communities. If you are lucky enough to make it over 60 or unlucky enough - I wont get into the philosophy of that, then you tend to know most people in your community of that age group. They may not of even have been your friends in high school, they may have been the geek, the jock or whatever. But a lot of the people you know do die as you get older in life. It’s a given. A lot of people perish from whatever.

Everyone dies, what is your point?

Death isn’t exclusively for the elderly.

You hear so many times as well of people who live healthy lifestyles going in their 50s and 90 year old ladies who drink, smoke and everything like that. I think to a large extent it is genetic.

We shouldn’t take anything for granted really.
In high school I knew loads of kids who died from illnesses you wouldn’t expect 12 and 14 year olds to have.
Then you have loads of people die in car crashes, being ran over, simply hitting their head on a wall. It’s misfortune but I don’t think it’s just a case that their luck ran out. Being involved in a car crash is such an intricate tapestry in the sense that everything prior to that car crash had a knock on effect which causes it.

I don’t even think you can stack the odds in your favor beyond a point.

Our whole universe is affected by cause and effect. It sucks to say this but it is of my opinion that our lives are probably pre-determined. I actually wrote about it in a few places and aptly named it causal determinism. I stopped pursuing the whole philosophy thing because it became maddening and depressing.

No, our lives are not pre-determined. And, you’re not the first who pursued that philosophy, it’s called Predeterminism.

I was however part of a group called the world academy of art and science which was founded by people like Einstein and Oppenheimer and to this day only has a few hundred people in the world in the group. It’s like mensa except a high iq wont get you in.

Having said this. None of those guys on there had the foresight or intelligence to pursue the relentless and proud endeavor of muscle building.

Mensa is overrated.

[Rhino_Jockey]

[quote]angry chicken wrote:
I am the luckiest mutherfucker I know. Srsly

I have done more STUPID shit than anyone I’ve ever met, and I’m still alive.

You know those high speed chases you see in movies? I fucking DID one of those right before I rammed a roadblock and got arrested - THAT’S how stupid I was…

I picked a fight with 15 plus guys who then BROKE MY NECK…

When I was an electrician I used to close 4000 Amp switches that were stuck with a 2 x 4…

I fucked a shit ton of women and never got an STD - not even an itch…

I fought FIVE guys at one time in prison, each had knives, and though I got stabbed, I won the fight - AND I DIDN’T HAVE A KNIFE…

Before I was locked up, I was DEEP into some criminal bullshit, and I had decided to kill someone, I had dug the hole and everything, but I MISSED! He found out and put a gun to my head and I talked my way out of it…

I just happened to go to lunch with one of the most brilliant minds in the wholesale lending industry on the east coast the DAY before he quit wholesale - and we started a company together…

When I was in prison, someone was paid to “rag-doll” me. They snuck up behind me and I didn’t hear/feel them. I sneezed and he MISSED my spine by an inch and stuck the shank into my trapezius…

I could go on and on and on…

To me, luck is when the situation that you’ve gotten yourself in is TOTALLY hopeless and you resign yourself to the consequences, but then you make it through somehow with out a scratch (or at least still breathing).[/quote]

AC, you need to write a book. Seriously. Or at least post some of these stories on here. I’d love to hear about them.

[BruceLeeFan]

I think that is the degradation of our communities. I know everyone in my community. However, I lived in an immigrant neighborhood. Americans don’t want to know their neighbors.

This is a valid point but I think it largely depends on the size of a community.
The phenomenon I pointed out was in the confines of an American/English community so my point is also valid.

[quote]No, our lives are not pre-determined. And, you’re not the first who pursued that philosophy, it’s called Predeterminism.

Mensa is overrated.[/quote]
Well I know all about Predeterminism and it is essentially the same as causal determinism. The only reason I have the little idiosyncrasy of calling it what I did is because I also thought the same things and named it that way before I had ever looked into philosophy and all the doctrines.

I wont get into an argument with you about whether or not our lives are pre-determined but I honestly think they are. To assume we are any different to anything else in this universe and not governed by the same laws is a human perspective. Just like luck. It’s something we ascribe to events we can’t possibly comprehend.

I know a lot of people argue against Predetermination with chaos theory… I think that is a phenomenon that occurs because we don’t have all of the variables so we can’t always arrive from x > y > z. Much in the same way that if you had a powerful enough computer, two twins so as identical as possible, controlled all of the variables in the environment from the get-go.
The computer recorded everything that happened and all changes in everything. Thus the really powerful computer… After a certain amount of time has elapsed the computer could theoretically put in a new variable test the condition and come out with an income. From there you could then do the same thing in the real test area and see if the results come out the same. E.g. Do the two twins do what the computer predicted. I think they would.

Also this is a shitty example but I tried out some stuff on age of empires. Set up a battle scenario and let it play out. Every single time the game would end at the same time. 1:13 on that particular battle.

I don’t believe in free-will. I believe in determinism, I think that free-will is an illusion of some kind that we get from an interaction of various parts of the brain. It doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy the illusion either way. I believe we have the will to power which is a term coined by Nietzsche. To me I have a literal understanding of that which is we have the will to act out certain things which is what is commonly referred to as free-will. I just don’t think it’s free. I think even that is pre-determined.

And yeah mensa is overrated.

[Brother_Chris]

[quote]BruceLeeFan wrote:
I don’t believe in free-will.
[/quote]

This is the inevitable conclusion of being a skeptic.

[quote]
And yeah mensa is overrated.[/quote]

[BruceLeeFan]

[quote]Brother Chris wrote:

[quote]BruceLeeFan wrote:
I don’t believe in free-will.
[/quote]

This is the inevitable conclusion of being a skeptic.

And yeah mensa is overrated.[/quote]

If I’m a skeptic then from my point of view you are a skeptic.

I have given at least a little bit of reasoning for my views. I would be interested in your reasoning behind your views.

Perhaps you’re religious, I don’t know. I’ve found most religions people hang on to dualistic notions a lot more because it is pretty much the foundation of their belief. I don’t really get the impression that you are religious though.

All I can say is logically I don’t believe in it.
Emotionally we all do.

One of the two ways of reasoning is a bit more recent to us evolutionary speaking.

[MementoMori]

You have to be good to be lucky, and lucky to be good.

Optimism is a good point. Friday I was bottled twice, 1 came within milimetres of severing my jugular. Was I lucky not to die or unlucky to be bottled? Two sides to anyone coin.

[BruceLeeFan]

Zuko: My father always said Azula was born lucky. He said I was lucky to be born. I don’t need luck, though. I don’t want it. I’ve always had to struggle and fight and thats made me strong. Its made me who I am.

[hockechamp14]

[quote]DJHT wrote:
Rookies

Andrew Luck is the QB for Stanford, top draft prospect…Wait am I in the wrong thread?[/quote]

Luck??

Luck is the only way the panthers are going to win more games in the NFL, one way or another. :-p

[Regular_Gonzalez]

[quote]BruceLeeFan wrote:
Well I know all about Predeterminism and it is essentially the same as causal determinism. The only reason I have the little idiosyncrasy of calling it what I did is because I also thought the same things and named it that way before I had ever looked into philosophy and all the doctrines.

I wont get into an argument with you about whether or not our lives are pre-determined but I honestly think they are. To assume we are any different to anything else in this universe and not governed by the same laws is a human perspective. Just like luck. It’s something we ascribe to events we can’t possibly comprehend.

I know a lot of people argue against Predetermination with chaos theory… I think that is a phenomenon that occurs because we don’t have all of the variables so we can’t always arrive from x > y > z. Much in the same way that if you had a powerful enough computer, two twins so as identical as possible, controlled all of the variables in the environment from the get-go.
The computer recorded everything that happened and all changes in everything. Thus the really powerful computer… After a certain amount of time has elapsed the computer could theoretically put in a new variable test the condition and come out with an income. From there you could then do the same thing in the real test area and see if the results come out the same. E.g. Do the two twins do what the computer predicted. I think they would.

Also this is a shitty example but I tried out some stuff on age of empires. Set up a battle scenario and let it play out. Every single time the game would end at the same time. 1:13 on that particular battle.

I don’t believe in free-will. I believe in determinism, I think that free-will is an illusion of some kind that we get from an interaction of various parts of the brain. It doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy the illusion either way. I believe we have the will to power which is a term coined by Nietzsche. To me I have a literal understanding of that which is we have the will to act out certain things which is what is commonly referred to as free-will. I just don’t think it’s free. I think even that is pre-determined.

And yeah mensa is overrated.[/quote]

I have thought along the same lines since quite a young age, although I find it a pretty depressing topic to think about.

This is along slightly different lines to what you are talking about, but there have been a number of experiments undertaken indicating that our subconcious starts to initiate an action well before we make a concious decision to do so. This can even happen seconds before our concious decision occurs. I guess that doesn’t really make much difference though if even our subconcious decisions are pre-determined.

You can do as you will, but you cannot will as you will.

I’m completely open to the possibility that I am wrong though. Determinism just makes more sense to me than belief in free will.

[Brother_Chris]

[quote]BruceLeeFan wrote:

[quote]Brother Chris wrote:

[quote]BruceLeeFan wrote:
I don’t believe in free-will.
[/quote]

This is the inevitable conclusion of being a skeptic.

And yeah mensa is overrated.[/quote]

If I’m a skeptic then from my point of view you are a skeptic.
[/quote]

I am partially a skeptic. I’m skeptic about singular claims, I am not skeptic about tradition. I hold true more to the common folk than to the mad man writing the history book, with a Ph.D.

I have given at least a little bit of reasoning for my views. I would be interested in your reasoning behind your views.

My reasoning why I don’t hold the view of a “casual determinism” or Predeterminism?

Perhaps you’re religious, I don’t know. I’ve found most religions people hang on to dualistic notions a lot more because it is pretty much the foundation of their belief. I don’t really get the impression that you are religious though.

I would have to say I am somewhat of a pious man. I pray seven times a day and I go to Divine Liturgy on Sundays and great holy days.

All I can say is logically I don’t believe in it.
Emotionally we all do.

Luck?

I don’t believe in luck beyond the statistical implications of luck. Luck is chance, chance is the statistical probability of a favorable outcome of circumstances (e.g. At Lucky’s Casino, you have a 52% chance of winning on any given hand against the dealer in a game of one-decked Black Jack.)

One of the two ways of reasoning is a bit more recent to us evolutionary speaking.

Yes, I don’t put much faith in the singular show of reason. I don’t put much faith any man’s weak reasoning faculties.

[Regular_Gonzalez]

[quote]Steel Nation wrote:
Luck is a way of describing the things that happen to you that are completely out of your control.

I’m very, very lucky. I was born into a good family with good health, and my kids were born healthy. Nothing catastrophic has ever happened to me that I didn’t bring about with my own actions, and I’ve gotten away with acting incredibly irresponsibly many times with no consequence.[/quote]

It could be argued you are lucky to even exist.

Out of the hundreds of eggs released from your mother during her life & the billions of sperm relead from your father during his lifetime, there was a very low probability of the two cells combining that would lead to “you” ever existing. If we took the chain of events back even further we could come back with a ridiculously low probability of you ever coming to existence.

[Brother_Chris]

[quote]Regular Gonzalez wrote:

[quote]Steel Nation wrote:
Luck is a way of describing the things that happen to you that are completely out of your control.

I’m very, very lucky. I was born into a good family with good health, and my kids were born healthy. Nothing catastrophic has ever happened to me that I didn’t bring about with my own actions, and I’ve gotten away with acting incredibly irresponsibly many times with no consequence.[/quote]

It could be argued you are lucky to even exist.

Out of the hundreds of eggs released from your mother during her life & the billions of sperm relead from your father during his lifetime, there was a very low probability of the two cells combining that would lead to “you” ever existing. If we took the chain of events back even further we could come back with a ridiculously low probability of you ever coming to existence.

[/quote]

Flip the coin, and there is a hundred percent probability that he was going to be created…I mean if things are predetermined that is.

[Magicpunch]

Again, luck is the interpretive layer we put on events once they happened.

Got bitten by a shark. Luck or unlucky?

1. Luck if you wanted a super close experience with a shark. You got one.
2. Unlucky if you don’t like 3 inch teeth sinking into your flesh and the resultant pain.